In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that
date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.
Picasso Dates, always +/-
Aug 4-12 L - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H - High on 11/7
Nov 24-27L - Low was early on 11/15 and out of sync with the cycles
Dec 3-9H - High was later on 12/12
Dec 25L - Low on 12/26 then later again on 12/29
Jan 2-7H <--- adjusted the date
Jan 22L - High on 1/9 & low on 1/10...then higher on continued momentum and strength
Feb 3-11H
Comments:
Long term indicators appear positive, so far and the ADL is still making new ATHs.
The LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, &
a high in late November/early December +/-. Well,
we are now past this time frame and this is where we need to be careful
and keep an eye on our indicators for any changes in the trend in 2018.
-Looking out into 2018 the Picasso LT cycles suggest a mid year low.
-This also
coincides with the four year Presidential cycle (2017-2020) where there
is usually a low in the second year, (2nd yr is 2018), and a high in the
third year, (3rd yr is 2019). It is widely known that the mid-term years
are the best years for the stock market.
***Keep in mind that nothing
works 100% of the time!
The "key" is to be able to recognize when the second year low is in and when the third year high is in.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This
has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and
consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Monday, January 22, 2018
Thursday, January 11, 2018
Jeffrey A. Hirsch webinar
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Wednesday, January 3, 2018
Picasso Cycle Update
In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.
Picasso Dates, always +/-
Aug 4-12 L - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H - High on 11/7
Nov 24-27L - Low was early on 11/15 and out of sync with the cycles
Dec 3-9H - High was later on 12/12
Dec 25L - Low on 12/26 then later again on 12/29
Jan 2-7H <--- adjusted the date
Jan 22L
Comments:
Long term indicators appear positive, so far and the ADL is still making new ATHs. The LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-. Well, we are now past this time frame and this is where we need to be careful and keep an eye on our indicators for any changes in the trend in 2018.
-Looking out into 2018 the Picasso LT cycles suggest a mid year low.
-This also coincides with the four year Presidential cycle (2017-2020) where there is usually a low in the second year, (2nd yr is 2018), and a high in the third year, (3rd yr is 2019). It is widely known that the mid-term years are the best years for the stock market.
***Keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time!
The "key" is to be able to recognize when the second year low is in and when the third year high is in.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.
Picasso Dates, always +/-
Aug 4-12 L - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H - High on 11/7
Nov 24-27L - Low was early on 11/15 and out of sync with the cycles
Dec 3-9H - High was later on 12/12
Dec 25L - Low on 12/26 then later again on 12/29
Jan 2-7H <--- adjusted the date
Jan 22L
Comments:
Long term indicators appear positive, so far and the ADL is still making new ATHs. The LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-. Well, we are now past this time frame and this is where we need to be careful and keep an eye on our indicators for any changes in the trend in 2018.
-Looking out into 2018 the Picasso LT cycles suggest a mid year low.
-This also coincides with the four year Presidential cycle (2017-2020) where there is usually a low in the second year, (2nd yr is 2018), and a high in the third year, (3rd yr is 2019). It is widely known that the mid-term years are the best years for the stock market.
***Keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time!
The "key" is to be able to recognize when the second year low is in and when the third year high is in.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wednesday, December 20, 2017
charts: DJTA daily
 |
| Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com |
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
charts: DJIA daily
 |
| Jan 2016 - June 2017 |
 |
| Jan 2016 - Current |
 |
| Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com |
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Sunday, December 10, 2017
charts: SPY 10day Hi-Lo & S&P500 daily
In both of the above charts it appears that the market may have some rough sledding ahead.
It seems that the market may correct and or have some sideways chop.
This is happening just when the Picasso Cycles suggests that the market maybe in the window of a high. See posts for the last Picasso Cycle Update.
A pullback at this time +/- may give way to some kind of short term OS or undervalued market which should be a base for a rally into the February/March2018 time frame. After that, if it does happen, the Picasso Cycles still suggests a mid-year low.
After that......well, first lets take one day, one week, one month at a time.
Updates will be made as the market progresses.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Tuesday, December 5, 2017
Picasso Cycle Update
In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.
Picasso Dates, always +/-
Aug 4-12 L - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H - High on 11/7
Nov 24-27L - Low was early on 11/15 and out of sync with the cycles
Dec 3-9H - High on Dec 4, so far
Dec 25L
Jan 7H
Comments:
Long term indicators appear positive, so far and the ADL is still making new ATHs. The LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-. Well, we are now in this time frame and this is where we need to be careful and keep an eye on our indicators for any change in the trend.
-Looking out into 2018 the Picasso LT cycles suggest a mid year low.
-This also coincides with the four year Presidential cycle (2017-2020) where there is usually a low in the second year, (2nd yr is 2018), and a high in the third year, (3rd yr is 2019). It is widely known that the mid-term years are the best years for the stock market. (Keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time!)
The "key" is to be able to recognize when the second year low is in and when the third year high is in.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.
Picasso Dates, always +/-
Aug 4-12 L - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H - High on 11/7
Nov 24-27L - Low was early on 11/15 and out of sync with the cycles
Dec 3-9H - High on Dec 4, so far
Dec 25L
Jan 7H
Comments:
Long term indicators appear positive, so far and the ADL is still making new ATHs. The LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-. Well, we are now in this time frame and this is where we need to be careful and keep an eye on our indicators for any change in the trend.
-Looking out into 2018 the Picasso LT cycles suggest a mid year low.
-This also coincides with the four year Presidential cycle (2017-2020) where there is usually a low in the second year, (2nd yr is 2018), and a high in the third year, (3rd yr is 2019). It is widely known that the mid-term years are the best years for the stock market. (Keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time!)
The "key" is to be able to recognize when the second year low is in and when the third year high is in.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Thursday, November 30, 2017
Escape Velocity for the Transports?
On Friday, March 4,2016 this blog posted data and information on the Escape Velocity as it was applied to the S&P500.
The link to this post ---> http://bit.ly/2Aqm3ub
Excerpts from the above post is below.
Why? Because the DJTransports just had 3 consecutive days of over a 1 1/2% gain each day.
Not sure if the Escape Velocity applies to the DJTransports, but, it has a lot of momentum regardless.
See for yourself...
Posted, Friday, March 4,2016
This post is about an article found on MarketWatch.com
The link to this article can be found at the bottom of this post.
"Historical pattern says the risk of a 2016 bear market is zero"
By Simon Maierhofer
Published: Feb 25,2016 12:57p.m. ET
In physics, escape velocity is the minimum speed needed for an object to break free from the gravitational attraction of a massive body. What is the “escape velocity” needed for stocks to break their down trend?
Unlike in physics, there is no fail-proof formula for stocks. However, based on history, the S&P 500 just rallied strongly enough to end its down trend. How so?
Stock-market 'escape velocity'
On Feb. 12, 16 and 17, the S&P 500 gained more than 1.5% a day for three consecutive days. Since 1970, this has happened only eight other times. The table below lists each occurrence along with the daily consecutive gains, and the return a year after the last “kickoff” day.
Observations by author
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/historic-pattern-says-the-risk-of-a-2016-bear-market-is-zero-2016-02-25
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The link to this post ---> http://bit.ly/2Aqm3ub
Excerpts from the above post is below.
Why? Because the DJTransports just had 3 consecutive days of over a 1 1/2% gain each day.
Not sure if the Escape Velocity applies to the DJTransports, but, it has a lot of momentum regardless.
See for yourself...
Posted, Friday, March 4,2016
This post is about an article found on MarketWatch.com
The link to this article can be found at the bottom of this post.
"Historical pattern says the risk of a 2016 bear market is zero"
By Simon Maierhofer
Published: Feb 25,2016 12:57p.m. ET
In physics, escape velocity is the minimum speed needed for an object to break free from the gravitational attraction of a massive body. What is the “escape velocity” needed for stocks to break their down trend?
Unlike in physics, there is no fail-proof formula for stocks. However, based on history, the S&P 500 just rallied strongly enough to end its down trend. How so?
Stock-market 'escape velocity'
On Feb. 12, 16 and 17, the S&P 500 gained more than 1.5% a day for three consecutive days. Since 1970, this has happened only eight other times. The table below lists each occurrence along with the daily consecutive gains, and the return a year after the last “kickoff” day.
 |
| The Index used in the data above was the S&P500 and NOT the DJTransports |
- Every single time the S&P 500 gained more than 1.5% a day for three consecutive days, it traded higher a year later.
- The S&P 500 violated the low set prior to the kickoff move only twice (1987, 2002). Both times it bounced back quickly.
- In 2016, the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week low before its kickoff rally. In 1970, 1987 and 2011, the S&P 500 also closed at a 52-week just before soaring higher.
- Obviously, kickoff rallies like this are not the only factor driving stocks, but this particular pattern confirms the six reasons for a stock market rally listed by the February 11 Profit Radar Report (all six reasons are available here).
- The Feb. 11 Profit Radar Report recommended buying the S&P 500 at 1,828 (after it fell as low as 1,810) in anticipation of a sizeable rally.
- As compelling as this historic pattern may be, tunnel vision is a luxury investors can't afford. It's worth noting that the 2016 kickoff is weaker (in terms of consecutive percentage gains) than prior kickoff rallies, and our major-market-top liquidity indicator raised a caution flag in May 2015.
- The scope of this rally has yet to be revealed, and a break below the February low is still possible (like in 1987 and 2002).
- Regardless of the S&P's near-term path, history says we shouldn't under estimate this kickoff rally. Acting on the sentiment-based buy signal at S&P 1,828 provided a low-risk entry point and insurance against a runaway rally.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/historic-pattern-says-the-risk-of-a-2016-bear-market-is-zero-2016-02-25
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
charts: SPY Weekly & Monthly
 |
| Courtesy of eSignal |
 |
| Courtesy of eSignal |
The bottom chart is the monthly SPY with the Andrew's Pitch Fork. This months price bar, circled in red, is now up against the lower trend line. In the past you can see where these trend lines have been support and where they have been resistance.
Note that the Elliott Wave counts are not in stone. They constantly change as price bars change. They are only used as a suggestion of the wave count. There are always alternate wave counts that should be considered.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Sunday, November 26, 2017
ChaikinAnalytics.com on Dow30 Stocks & Sectors
 |
| Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com |
 |
| Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com |
Note that the app has not been updated yet for iOS 11
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Picasso Cycle Update & More
In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.
Picasso Dates, always +/-
Aug 4-12 L - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H - High on 11/7
Nov 24-27L - Low was early on 11/15 and out of sync with the cycles
Dec 3-9H
Dec 25L
Now that we all had a great Thanksgiving feast, it is timely to read about the "Santa Claus Rally" with comments by several sources
By Investopedia
What is a 'Santa Claus Rally'
A santa claus rally is a surge in the price of stocks that often occurs in the last week of December through the first two trading days in January. There are numerous explanations for the Santa Claus Rally phenomenon, including tax considerations, happiness around Wall Street, people investing their Christmas bonuses and the fact that the pessimists are usually on vacation this week.
BREAKING DOWN 'Santa Claus Rally'
Many consider the Santa Claus rally to be a result of people buying stocks in anticipation of the rise in stock prices during the month of January, otherwise known as the January effect.
By TheStreet.com
A "Santa Claus Rally" is when the stock market rallies during the month of December, usually, in the last week of the month. Sound familiar? You might be thinking of the January Effect, which presumably occurs when investors sell stocks in December only to buy them back in January for tax purposes. Confused yet?
At the end of the day, stock market rallies are attributable to the collective psychology of market participants. Some years, stock may post strong gains from December into January; other years, not so much.
Regardless, if you see stocks rallying in the week between Christmas and the New Year, people are going to call it a Santa Claus Rally.
Forbes
Is A Santa Claus Rally Ahead? Here Are The Key Charts To Watch
Comments:
Long term indicators appear positive, so far and the ADL is still making new ATHs. The LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-. Well, we are now in this time frame and this is where we need to be careful and keep an eye on our indicators for any change in the trend.
-Peter Eliades "Sign of the Bear" indicator, talked about on this Blog, gave another signal on October 15,2017. There is a lag between the past signals and the change in trend from bull to bear. See the weekly charts.
-Looking out into 2018 the Picasso LT cycles suggest a mid year low.
-This also coincides with the four year Presidential cycle (2017-2020) where there is usually a low in the second year, (2nd yr 2018), and a high in the third year, (3rd yr 2019). It is widely known that the mid-term years are the best years for the stock market. (Keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time!)
The "key" is to be able to recognize when the second year low is in and when the third year high is in.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.
Picasso Dates, always +/-
Aug 4-12 L - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H - High on 11/7
Nov 24-27L - Low was early on 11/15 and out of sync with the cycles
Dec 3-9H
Dec 25L
Now that we all had a great Thanksgiving feast, it is timely to read about the "Santa Claus Rally" with comments by several sources
By Investopedia
What is a 'Santa Claus Rally'
A santa claus rally is a surge in the price of stocks that often occurs in the last week of December through the first two trading days in January. There are numerous explanations for the Santa Claus Rally phenomenon, including tax considerations, happiness around Wall Street, people investing their Christmas bonuses and the fact that the pessimists are usually on vacation this week.
BREAKING DOWN 'Santa Claus Rally'
Many consider the Santa Claus rally to be a result of people buying stocks in anticipation of the rise in stock prices during the month of January, otherwise known as the January effect.
By TheStreet.com
A "Santa Claus Rally" is when the stock market rallies during the month of December, usually, in the last week of the month. Sound familiar? You might be thinking of the January Effect, which presumably occurs when investors sell stocks in December only to buy them back in January for tax purposes. Confused yet?
At the end of the day, stock market rallies are attributable to the collective psychology of market participants. Some years, stock may post strong gains from December into January; other years, not so much.
Regardless, if you see stocks rallying in the week between Christmas and the New Year, people are going to call it a Santa Claus Rally.
Forbes
Is A Santa Claus Rally Ahead? Here Are The Key Charts To Watch
Comments:
Long term indicators appear positive, so far and the ADL is still making new ATHs. The LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-. Well, we are now in this time frame and this is where we need to be careful and keep an eye on our indicators for any change in the trend.
-Peter Eliades "Sign of the Bear" indicator, talked about on this Blog, gave another signal on October 15,2017. There is a lag between the past signals and the change in trend from bull to bear. See the weekly charts.
-Looking out into 2018 the Picasso LT cycles suggest a mid year low.
-This also coincides with the four year Presidential cycle (2017-2020) where there is usually a low in the second year, (2nd yr 2018), and a high in the third year, (3rd yr 2019). It is widely known that the mid-term years are the best years for the stock market. (Keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time!)
The "key" is to be able to recognize when the second year low is in and when the third year high is in.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Monday, November 13, 2017
Charts for "Sign of the Bear"
The indicator, Sign of the Bear, by Peter Eliades may be very important, so the charts are being displayed below on all the dates from this indicator.
Note that Peter's signals are based on his specific Rules and only the following dates were a result of these Rules since 1929.
Note that Peter's signals are based on his specific Rules and only the following dates were a result of these Rules since 1929.
On Friday November 10,2017 Peter Eliades was on FBN
Peter has a stock market newsletter
called StockMarket Cycles. He was
discussing an indicator he discovered in 1992 that he calls, “Sign of the Bear”. In short, there have been 8 occurrences in
the past 88 years. Subsequent to these dates the stock market has fallen as
follows.
July 19,1929 -89%
December 8,1961 -29%
January 25,1966 -26.5%
October 17,1968 -36.9%
December 6,1972 -46.5%
April 6,1998 -21%
September 15,2000 -32%
July 10, 2001 -27%
Now, why is this
important? Because another signal just
occurred on October 25,2017.
For each date mentioned above a daily and weekly chart are shown below.
There is a vertical line on each chart at the signal dates so you can see the price action that occurred in each year after the signal date. The price pattern after each date is slightly different.
But one thing stood out. The two signals that had the smallest losses were 1966 and 1998. Interestingly both of these years were the second year of the four year Presidential cycle and next year, 2018, is also the second year of the four year Presidential cycle.
So if history repeats itself, we could expect about a 20% - 25% correction.
More charts to follow...
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This
has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and
consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
Saturday, November 11, 2017
Sign of the Bear
The following are excerpts
from posts on my blog (JustSignals.blogspot.com)
Wednesday, February 8,2017
Picasso Cycle
Dates
Long term indicators appear positive, so far. Negative
divergence on many indicators have been broken very late last year and so they now suggest further
upside. So, if small pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle dates and
daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
In addition, LT cycles suggest a high April +/-, low August +/- & high November +/-. Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.
In addition, LT cycles suggest a high April +/-, low August +/- & high November +/-. Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.
Wednesday, November 8,2017
Picasso Cycle Update
Long term indicators appear positive, so far. Negative
divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now
suggest further upside. So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle
date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying
opportunity.
So far this forecast came to pass. The August low was accurate.
In addition, the LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, (which we had), & a high in late November/early December +/-.
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your indicators and or your professional investment advisors analysis.
The LT Cycle low suggested for August was shallow. The DJIA high was 22,179 and the DJIA low was 21,600. This was a 2.6% correction. Not much, but, it was a correction as forecasted nevertheless.
So far this forecast came to pass. The August low was accurate.
In addition, the LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, (which we had), & a high in late November/early December +/-.
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your indicators and or your professional investment advisors analysis.
The LT Cycle low suggested for August was shallow. The DJIA high was 22,179 and the DJIA low was 21,600. This was a 2.6% correction. Not much, but, it was a correction as forecasted nevertheless.
Wednesday, March 29,2017
Zweig Breadth Thrust
According to Dr. Zweig, there have
only been fourteen Breadth Thrusts since 1945 (as
of the date of the original printing of this article ???). The
average gain following these fourteen Thrusts was 24.6% in an average
time-frame of eleven months. Dr. Zweig also points out that most bull markets
begin with a Breadth Thrust.
The last ZBT that we noted, occurred starting Nov 8,2016.
If we apply the the average gain of 24.6% to the average length of 11 months we get:
DJIA Nov. 2016 18,000 --->22,500 forecast 11 months later in Oct.2017
S&P500 Nov. 2016 2,100 ---> 2.625 forecast 11 months later in Oct.2017
Will the stock market possibly continue straight up until Oct, 2017? We doubt it. In fact, the LT Picasso Cycle dates suggest an April high +/-, an August low +/- and then a Nov high +/-. This last high in Nov is very close to the ZBT average forecast high in Oct. 2017.
Friday November 10,2017 Peter Eliades was on FBN
Peter has a stock market newsletter
called StockMarket Cycles. He was
discussing an indicator he discovered in 1992 that he calls, “Sign of the Bear”. In short, there have been 8 occurrences in
the past 88 years. Subsequent to these dates the stock market has fallen as
follows.
July 19,1929 -89%
December 8,1961 -29% January 25,1966 -26.5%
October 17,1968 -36.9%
December 6,1972 -46.5%
April 6,1998 -21% September 15,2000 -32%
July 10, 2001 -27%
Now, why is this
important? Because another event just
occurred on October 25,2017.
Excerpts from articles on Peter Eliades, Sign of the Bear
There is, of course, the chance that
the pattern this time around could be a non-event.
Remember, the ending of the pattern
usually precedes the final market high; it does not usually coincide with or
follow the market top.
What precautions can investors take now? For
starters, they should decide exactly how much pain they are willing to abide if
the market should turn sharply lower. While a decline of 10 to 15 percent
should not alarm true long-term investors, they must always be on their guard
against the 40-80 percent declines that tend to occur every few generations,
says Eliades. A stop-loss can ensure that one exits safely ahead of the Big One. "Decide now where you would sell a stock or mutual fund and still not be badly hurt," advises Eliades. "This should usually be about 12 to 15 percent below current levels or recent portfolio highs."
Stick to your plan, he admonishes, and monitor your portfolio closely so that you can raise your bail-out price as the market advances. "The risk is that you might sell out at lows just before stocks go up again," he says, "but the insurance is well worth it, since you will be protected against catastrophic declines."
The WSJ
By Simon Constable
Nov. 3, 2013
The Second Year of the Four Year Presidential Cycle
Tomorrow, as you cast a vote,
you might also gird yourself for rocky markets ahead, especially during the
first nine months of 2014. How so? The
second year of a presidential term is traditionally a period of subpar stock
performance. The "presidential stock
market cycle" says that stocks perform better or worse depending on the
year of the president's term. The second
year is the worst, and the third is the best, on average. Specifically, since 1945, the second year of
a president's term saw the S&P 500 gain 5.3% in price on average, versus
16.1% in the third, according to an analysis by S&P Capital IQ. No distinction is made between a president's
first or second term. The clock simply
starts over.
Of course, the figures are averages,
so not all years follow the cycle in lock step. Still, the third year sees the
index gain 88% of the time; the second year, only 59%. The
second-year subpar performance is actually even worse for the first nine months
of the year; losses average 0.5% then. Why
is that second year so bad? Because that
is when the U.S. economy gets less attention from ruling-party politicians,
says Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ, in New York. Mr. Stovall likens the second year to
"sophomore slump. "By
contrast, "the third year, the year before the election, investors
anticipate that the party in power wants to stay in power, so they try to boost
the economy," he says. That stimulus tends to carry over into the last, or
lame-duck, year. Then, in the first
year, the president and the economy tend to get the benefit of the
"honeymoon period. "This is no
new phenomenon. A 1992 analysis
published in the Financial Analysts Journal compared the Dow Jones Industrial
Average and the cycle from 1901 through 1990. That data also showed second years were
subpar and third years best.
Mr. Constable is host of WSJ Live's News Hub show, on WSJ.com. Email him at simon.constable@wsj.com.
· The above excerpts suggest a possible near term high
in the stock market and then a possible low and or weakness in 2018.
· As always, watch your indicators, do your own work and
consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This
has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and
consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
Wednesday, November 8, 2017
Picasso Cycle Update
In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.
Picasso Dates, always +/-
Aug 4-12 L - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H
Nov 24-27L
Comments:
Long term indicators appear positive, so far. Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside. So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
So far this forecast came to pass. The August low was accurate.
In addition, the LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-.
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your indicators and or your professional investment advisors analysis.
The LT Cycle low suggested for August was shallow. The DJIA high was 22,179 and the DJIA low was 21,600. This was a 2.6% correction. Not much, but, it was a correction as forecasted nevertheless.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.
Picasso Dates, always +/-
Aug 4-12 L - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H
Nov 24-27L
Comments:
Long term indicators appear positive, so far. Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside. So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
So far this forecast came to pass. The August low was accurate.
In addition, the LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-.
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your indicators and or your professional investment advisors analysis.
The LT Cycle low suggested for August was shallow. The DJIA high was 22,179 and the DJIA low was 21,600. This was a 2.6% correction. Not much, but, it was a correction as forecasted nevertheless.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
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