Sign of the Bear

The following are excerpts from posts on my blog (JustSignals.blogspot.com)

Wednesday, February 8,2017

Picasso Cycle Dates

Long term indicators appear positive, so far.  Negative divergence on many indicators have been broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside.  So, if small pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle dates and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
In addition, LT cycles suggest a high April +/-, low August +/- & high November +/-.  Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.

Wednesday, November 8,2017

Picasso Cycle Update

Long term indicators appear positive, so far.  Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside.  So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
So far this forecast came to pass.  The August low was accurate. 
 
In addition, the LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, (which we had), & a high in late November/early December +/-. 
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your indicators and or your professional investment advisors analysis.
The LT Cycle low suggested for August was shallow.  The DJIA high was 22,179 and the DJIA low was 21,600.   This was a 2.6% correction.  Not much, but, it was a correction as forecasted nevertheless.

Wednesday, March 29,2017

Zweig Breadth Thrust

According to Dr. Zweig, there have only been fourteen Breadth Thrusts since 1945 (as of the date of the original printing of this article ???). The average gain following these fourteen Thrusts was 24.6% in an average time-frame of eleven months. Dr. Zweig also points out that most bull markets begin with a Breadth Thrust.

The last ZBT that we noted, occurred starting Nov 8,2016.
If we apply the the average gain of 24.6% to the average length of 11 months we get:
DJIA         Nov. 2016     18,000 --->22,500 forecast 11 months later in Oct.2017
S&P500    Nov. 2016       2,100 --->  2.625 forecast 11 months later in Oct.2017 

Will the stock market possibly continue straight up until Oct, 2017?  We doubt it.  In fact, the LT Picasso Cycle dates suggest an April high +/-, an August low +/- and then a Nov high +/-.  This last high in Nov is very close to the ZBT average forecast high in Oct. 2017.

Friday November 10,2017 Peter Eliades was on FBN

Peter has a stock market newsletter called StockMarket Cycles.  He was discussing an indicator he discovered in 1992 that he calls, “Sign of the Bear”.   In short, there have been 8 occurrences in the past 88 years. Subsequent to these dates the stock market has fallen as follows.

July 19,1929   -89%      December 8,1961   -29%      January 25,1966   -26.5%      October 17,1968   -36.9%

December 6,1972   -46.5%      April 6,1998   -21%      September 15,2000   -32%      July 10, 2001   -27%

Now, why is this important?  Because another event just occurred on October 25,2017.

Excerpts from articles on Peter Eliades, Sign of the Bear

There is, of course, the chance that the pattern this time around could be a non-event.

Remember, the ending of the pattern usually precedes the final market high; it does not usually coincide with or follow the market top.

What precautions can investors take now? For starters, they should decide exactly how much pain they are willing to abide if the market should turn sharply lower. While a decline of 10 to 15 percent should not alarm true long-term investors, they must always be on their guard against the 40-80 percent declines that tend to occur every few generations, says Eliades.                                      

A stop-loss can ensure that one exits safely ahead of the Big One. "Decide now where you would sell a stock or mutual fund and still not be badly hurt," advises Eliades. "This should usually be about 12 to 15 percent below current levels or recent portfolio highs."
Stick to your plan, he admonishes, and monitor your portfolio closely so that you can raise your bail-out price as the market advances. "The risk is that you might sell out at lows just before stocks go up again," he says, "but the insurance is well worth it, since you will be protected against catastrophic declines."

The WSJ 

By Simon Constable

Nov. 3, 2013

The Second Year of the Four Year Presidential Cycle

 

Tomorrow, as you cast a vote, you might also gird yourself for rocky markets ahead, especially during the first nine months of 2014. How so?  The second year of a presidential term is traditionally a period of subpar stock performance.  The "presidential stock market cycle" says that stocks perform better or worse depending on the year of the president's term.  The second year is the worst, and the third is the best, on average.  Specifically, since 1945, the second year of a president's term saw the S&P 500 gain 5.3% in price on average, versus 16.1% in the third, according to an analysis by S&P Capital IQ.   No distinction is made between a president's first or second term.  The clock simply starts over.

Of course, the figures are averages, so not all years follow the cycle in lock step. Still, the third year sees the index gain 88% of the time; the second year, only 59%.  The second-year subpar performance is actually even worse for the first nine months of the year; losses average 0.5% then.  Why is that second year so bad?  Because that is when the U.S. economy gets less attention from ruling-party politicians, says Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ, in New York.  Mr. Stovall likens the second year to "sophomore slump.  "By contrast, "the third year, the year before the election, investors anticipate that the party in power wants to stay in power, so they try to boost the economy," he says. That stimulus tends to carry over into the last, or lame-duck, year.   Then, in the first year, the president and the economy tend to get the benefit of the "honeymoon period.  "This is no new phenomenon.  A 1992 analysis published in the Financial Analysts Journal compared the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the cycle from 1901 through 1990.   That data also showed second years were subpar and third years best.

Mr. Constable is host of WSJ Live's News Hub show, on WSJ.com. Email him at simon.constable@wsj.com.

·       The above excerpts suggest a possible near term high in the stock market and then a possible low and or weakness in 2018.

·       As always, watch your indicators, do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

 Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results