Wednesday, December 21, 2016

chart: SPY vs Buying Pressure

Note that the Buying Pressure has been dropping. 
See what happened to the SPY during previous similar times.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart: updated SPY vs 10DMA Hi-Lo

Negative divergence is still noted in these charts.  The 10DMA of Hi-Lo continues to drop.

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A webinar worth seeing!

This is from ---> Kimble Charting Solutions Website

This link was extracted from this free email and is worth looking at

http://bit.ly/2hTLnNk


Hi,

Seasons greetings!.  I hope things are well 
with you.

Each month I conduct a live webinar for our Premium Members to discuss Key chart patterns that are at extremes with a high potential for breakouts or reversals

I will occasionally post these videos on a delayed basis to our Youtube page  for your viewing.  I hope you find the information of value as you enter the coming year.

December's webinar is now posted on youtube. Take a look now and see the major patterns I'm watching and keeping members current on a daily basis.

While you're there, subscribe to the channel to receive updates in the future.  


And I sincerely appreciate your comments and questions

All the best and a Merry Christmas to you and yours
Chris
Founder / CEO

Kimble Charting Solutions Website

Learn more about our research and available subscriptions here 


Questions?   Reply to this email or Contact us toll free
877-721-7217 International 714-941-9381

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Past performance is not indicative of future results





Monday, December 19, 2016

Getting to Dow 20,000

LunaticTrader.com
By Danny

Markets had a fairly flat week and a few attempts to push the Dow above 20k have come up short. The recent lunar red period ended with a 181 point gain for the Nasdaq and we are now starting a new green period. That would normally get us above 20k, but the green periods have been weak all year so that isn't helping much. Let's have a look at the S&P 500:
Courtesy of LunaticTrader.com
This index is bumping into a few overhead resistance lines. There is also a bearish divergence appearing in my Earl indicator (blue line), which is an early warning sign. The slower Earl2 (orange line) keeps going up, but may be nearing a top as well. The MoM indicator is still in the +8 very optimistic zone.
All in all the lunar green period and the slower year-end trading could be enough to push the S&P to 2300 and the Dow above 20k. But that is not a given and would probably be followed by a slow start in 2017.
A choppy market for the rest of the year would be healthier. Stocks could catch some breath and that would give us a nice setup going into January.
I don't know what will happen, but with most of my indicators looking rather stretched I am going to trade cautiously until those readings come down to more neutral levels.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Friday, December 16, 2016

chart: DJIA 52wk new high w/NYSE new highs & lows >100

Courtesy of Dana Lyons @JLyonsFundMgmt
The recent advance decline data was added so you can refer back to those dates on your charts.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart: SPY weekly

Courtesy of eSignal.com
As long as the SPY closes the week at or below 225.88 the SPY Weekly Japanese candlestick is bearish.
The bottom window is OB and caution should be taken.  Similar times of OB and a bearish candle are noted by a yellow vertical line.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday, December 15, 2016

chart: SPY vs 10DMA Hi-Lo


Negative divergence is noted by the blue lines.  The red circle shows the down turn.
Also The 10DMA gave a sell signal today.

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Wednesday, December 14, 2016

charts: Fear & Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN/Money
Courtesy of CNN/Money
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Monday, December 12, 2016

chart: SPY & Tom DeMark's REI

The following chart is the weekly SPY.  Below is the REI (range expansion index by Tom DeMark)


Weekly SPY
  Yellow Bars & Red Circle - Over Bought and in an area where tops form


The Description
The DeMark Range Expansion Index is a market-timing oscillator described in DeMark on Day Trading Options, by T.R. DeMark and T.R. Demark, Jr., McGraw Hill, 1999. The oscillator is arithmetically calculated and is designed to overcome problems with exponentially calculated oscillators, like MACD. The TD REI oscillator typically produces values of -100 to +100 with 45 or higher indicating overbought conditions and -45 or lower indicating oversold. DeMark advises against trading in extreme overbought or oversold conditions indicated by six or more bars above or below the 45 thresholds. For more information on using TD REI the user is referred to the DeMark text.
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Past performance is not indicative of future results
 

Saturday, December 10, 2016

chart: SentimentTrader Breadth Observation

Courtesy of @sentimentrader
Courtesy of eSignal
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Friday, December 9, 2016

LMTR December 2016 newsletter

Why is the Market Headed for Big Trouble?
It’s all About Interest Rates and Indicators
 
By Brad Lamensdorf

Link to the December 2016 newsletter, Courtesy of Brad Lamensdorf
http://bit.ly/2hva6WT


See why Brad is saying:

"It remains difficult to find any value in the current market. Insider buying is nonexistent,
and valuation and sentiment both remain elevated. To make matters worse, interest rates have begun to rise. We remain 42 ½% net short after our October intra-month moves."
 
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepageThis has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart: Fear & Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN/Money
This Index keeps grinding higher !
The Trump rally has gained at least 10% since Election Day!
Window dressing may push the market higher as we approach the last trading day of the year.
Carl Icahn recently said that the market may have gotten ahead of itself, but, money managers still need to show they are holding performing stocks in there portfolios by the end of the month, quarter and year.  
Watch out for a possible pullback the first week in January 2017.


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Thursday, December 8, 2016

chart: Fear and Greed Index

Courtesy of @VIXsquared
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charts: By Raj Times and Cycles

Courtesy of Raj Times and Cycles
Courtesy of Raj Times and Cycles
By Raj Times and Cycles:
What's next: We should make a Dec 8 High+/-1 at 2245 SPX +/-5 and start a retrace, we should then retest these Highs at a projected future major High date.

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Sunday, December 4, 2016

Picasso Cycle Dates

In this update only the dates will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low with amplitude as sometimes shown on the chart.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the amplitude and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.
 




Comments
The Picasso short term cycle dates have not been posted here for almost two months.  This is because the cycles have not been suggesting any short term swings.  Instead they have displayed much volatility and noise.  Hopefully this has all past.


Picasso Dates, always +/-
Dec 5 H
Dec 9-14 L (Dec 14*)
Dec 17-30 H (Dec 30*)
Jan 5-6 L

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Thursday, December 1, 2016

chart: Indices Performance

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tom McClellan - Trump rally will end

How will stocks perform once Trump takes office?  

The market may be rallying on President-elect Donald Trump's victory, but one market expert told CNBC he expects that to end after Inauguration Day.

That's because that has been the pattern when a new president from a different party takes office, said Tom McClellan, editor of the McClellan Market Report.
After the election, hopefulness and euphoria usually sends stocks higher because "everybody assumes that whatever's wrong is going to get changed or fixed by the new guy even though nobody's doing anything yet in terms of governing," he said in an interview with "Closing Bell" on Tuesday.
However, the morning after the inauguration, people realize the problems still exist and it will take longer to fix them, he noted.
"That tends to bum everyone out and so they sell their stocks."
And that's not the only thing that can discourage investors, according to McClellan.
Typically, a new president from a different party finds that things are worse than he said during the campaign, and the only solution is whatever package of tax cuts or tax hikes or spending he wants to get through Congress, McClellan explained.
"Investors don't like to hearing that things are worse than we expected and that tends to depress prices during the first year of a new term."
Trump will be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States on Jan. 20.

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1st Day of the Month Gains

DJIA gains more on first day than all other days 

Over the last 15 1/4 years the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained more points on the first trading days of all months than all other days combined. While the Dow has gained 5481.72 points between September 2, 1997 (7622.42) and December 31, 2012 (13104.14), 5323.19 points were gained on the first trading days of these 184 months. The remaining 3674 trading days combined gained just 158.53 points during the period. This averages out to gains of 28.93 points on first days, in contrast to only 0.04 points on all others. See Table 1.

Note that September 1997 through October 2000 racked up a total gain of 2632.39 Dow points on the first trading days of these 38 months (winners except for seven occasions). But between November 2000 and September 2002, when the 2000-2002 bear markets did the bulk of their damage, frightened investors switched from pouring money into the market on that day to pulling it out in fourteen months out of twenty-three. This netted a 404.80 Dow point loss. The 2007-2009 bear market lopped off 964.14 Dow points on first days in 17 months from November 2007 to March 2009. First days had their worst year in 2011, declining seven times for a total loss of 644.45 Dow points.

First days of June have performed worst. Triple digit declines in four of the last five years have resulted in the worst net loss. August is the second net loser. In rising market trends, first days perform much better as institutions are likely anticipating strong performance at each month’s outset. S&P 500 first days track the Dow’s pattern closely but NASDAQ first days are not as strong with weakness in April, August, and October.


Courtesy of Jeffrey A. Hirsch
 For more information contact
 JEFFREY A. HIRSCH, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac and Almanac Investor newsletter, and the author of The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles (Wiley, 2012).
 www.stocktradersalmanac.com

 

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Tuesday, November 29, 2016

charts: 3 Peaks & a Domed House

Courtesy of @ThinkTankCharts, as of Nov 23,2016
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chart: 1st Termer from New Party

Courtesy of McClellan Financial Publications
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great chart: Earl & Earl2

LunaticTrader.com
By Danny

Stocks have kept going up and the Nasdaq is reaching the 5400 level, as we suggested it would in our post two weeks ago. So, what's next? Let's have a look at the S&P 500 chart:

We stay in a lunar green period for the rest of the week, so we can prepare for some kind of top in the coming days.
Technically the S&P 500 is facing several overhead resistance levels between 2220 and 2300. I don't think we are going to race straight through them, but of course I could be wrong.
My Earl indicator (blue line) has turned down already, and the MoM is entering the "euphoric" +8 zone. As you can see in the chart MoM reaching +8 often marks major peaks, which are typically followed by a significant pullback or by several months of sideways churning. MoM reaching -8 typically marks tradeable bottoms. Nothing is perfect but this is something that works pretty persistently in any market. MoM indicator for various markets and stocks is posted on my Twitter every day.
On the plus side the slower Earl2 (orange line) is still climbing healthily and appears in no mood to turn down already. This could be enough to hold up the market into year's end. It makes it more likely that we will get sideways action with only marginal new highs being printed in December. So, that is my current base scenario.

Danny | November 28, 2016 at 1:38 pm

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Russell 2000 win streak

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Friday, November 25, 2016

charts: Chaikin Analytics, DIA, SPY, QQQ

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics
Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics
Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics
Note that there is some divergence in several charts. 
Breath is also not as strong as it should be when there is a new bull move. 
Keep a careful watch on your charts. 

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Saturday, November 19, 2016

chart: NYSE McClellan Summation Index

Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Just study this chart carefully.
Do you see what I see?

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Tuesday, November 15, 2016

chart: SPY weekly

SPY weekly Courtesy of eSignal
The stock market has been in very wide trading range since late 2014.  Unlike other indexes, the Transports have not made a new high since late 2014, although it has been very strong since Election Day.  
The weekly SPY is a chart to watch carefully as indicators get close to over bought. 
Index funds have had marginal growth.  The investors that watch and act on sector rotation have had better results along with investors that stick with stocks that display the best relative strength(RS).  Drop the stocks with weak RS and buy the stocks with strong RS.  It has been a stock pickers market.

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Sunday, November 13, 2016

charts: >5% NYSE issues hitting New Highs & New Lows

Nov 11, 2016
By Dana Lyons
J. Lyons Fund Management Inc.



For the full article and charts, use the following link:
http://jlfmi.tumblr.com/post/153051852470/is-abundance-of-new-highs-and-new-lows-a-bad-omen


Additional comments by:
On Twitter By   Hey Now


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charts: The Day after the Election

Courtesy of Nautilus Capital
Courtesy of Nautilus Capital
Courtesy of Nautilus Capital

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Friday, November 11, 2016

charts: Presidential Cycle Patterns

Chart In Focus, by Tom McClellan
The Market, Under a New President


November 10, 2016

Investors get fearful ahead of a big election, because the outcome is unknown.  Unknown risks are what investors fear most.  Now that the result is decided, we have known risks to deal with. 
Investors were also fearful ahead of the 2012 election, which also had a surprising (for some) result.  Recall that Gov. Romney had been up by 1-4% in the last polls leading up to that election.  Polling that year was admittedly disrupted by the arrival of Hurricane Sandy, which also shut down the stock market for 2 days. 
And interestingly, the market now is doing a pretty good imitation of the path of price movements 4 years ago.  In 2012 there was a dip into mid-November after the Nov. 6 election.  This time it was a dip the week before the Nov. 8 election.  But in each case there has also been a strong rebound after that dip. 
You may have heard before that having a Democrat president is better for the stock market than having a Republican president, and there are statistics which can be used to support that.  In the following chart, the averages for each category since 1933 are plotted:

The real truth is a lot more nuanced than just saying one is better than the other.  On average, the market has performed better for the first 16 months of Democrats’ terms,  but then by the 3rd year that advantage completely disappears.  And market performance in the 4th year is worse on average under a Republican president.  A big part of that is the weakness after the Oct. 1987 crash, and from the 2008 bear market,  both of which happened under Republican presidents. 
Another differentiation among presidents concerns whether there is a new president from a different party, versus a 2nd term president or a new one from the same party.  This one is a much bigger deal, especially during the first year of a new presidential term. 
Generally speaking, investors respond more favorably at first to getting a new president from a different party.  This has to do with celebrating that they got the change they wanted (or so they think).  That positive emotion tends to wear off right around inauguration day, when they realize that the new president has not fixed all of the problems already. 
The negativity under a new president persists as the year runs on, because of a habit they all seem to have.  I have seen this same behavior repeatedly over my lifetime.  A new president comes in, and spends his first year “discovering” that conditions are even worse than we were told during the campaign, and then tells us that “the only solution” is whatever package of tax hikes/cuts or spending adjustments he wants to make.
Bill Clinton did this in 1993.  Despite 5% GDP growth then, Clinton asserted that “This is the worst recession in 50 years,” and he wanted to jam through a $20 billion package of pork barrel spending (mostly to reward campaign contributors).  Congress wisely said no.  When I think back on that, I realize that $20 billion is such a cute little number compared to the size of the “fixes” that have come since then.
With Bush 43 in 2001, it was tax cuts, although he could not get all he wanted right away and had to do another round in 2003.  With Barack Obama in 2009, it was the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, with $831 billion in stimulus spending (see why $20 billion is a cute little number)?  They all seem to do it. 
Investors generally don’t like hearing that things are worse than previously believed, and that creates a depressing effect on stock prices during a first year.  Generally speaking, 2nd term presidents do not spend very much time blaming the immediate predecessor, or finding things wrong, and so investors don’t get frightened away as much.  But as noted previously, that difference in stock market performance between 1st and 2nd term presidents generally goes away by the end of the 2nd year.
Every instance is different, and these charts just show what the average behavior has been. 
Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report
www.mcoscillator.com
(253) 581-4889 

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Past performance is not indicative of future results