Thursday, January 11, 2018

Jeffrey A. Hirsch webinar

Free Webinar: Why the Dow Could Reach 29000 in 2018

Please register for my free Why the Dow Could Reach 29000 in 2018 on Wednesday January 17, 2018 @ 1:00 PM EST at: 
 
 
Jeffrey A. Hirsch, Chief Market Strategist at Probabilities Fund Management, LLC and editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac and Almanac Investor e-newsletter will reveal his forecast for 2018. He will discuss potential impacts of this year’s upcoming midterm election and his January Indicator Trifecta; and how his 2010 forecast for DJIA 38,820 by 2025 is right on track. 
 
So far two legs of the Trifecta are positive for 2018. The Santa Claus Rally and the First Five Days posted gains. If his full-month January Barometer is up it would lend further support to the bullish case. 
 
In addition, Jeff will teach you many other seasonal indicators, patterns and strategies, including the 4-year election cycle, the ins and outs of his Best Six Months Switching Strategy and his Tactical Seasonal Sector Rotation Strategy. Jeff will explain in clear language all there is to know about market seasonality and how he rotates in and out of sectors with the highest probability for maximum returns using fundamental and technical analysis in conjunction with seasonal and cyclical trading strategies, economic trends, and historical patterns as well as current seasonal and cyclical investing opportunities in highly correlated ETFs and his current top-ranked small-, mid- and large-cap stocks.
 
If you are unable to attend, but would like to view the video archive, please still register. Approximately 24 hours after the webinar we will email all that registered a link to the video.
 

Yours truly,
Jeffrey A. Hirsch
CEO: Hirsch Holdings | Editor: Stock Trader’s Almanac & Almanac Investor

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Hirsch Holdings Inc., 84 Clinton Ave Nyack, NY 10960
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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wednesday, January 3, 2018

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date. 

Picasso Dates, always +/- 
Aug 4-12 L  - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H  - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L  - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H  - High on 11/7
Nov 24-27L - Low was early on 11/15 and out of sync with the cycles 
Dec 3-9H - High was later on 12/12
Dec 25L - Low on 12/26 then later again on 12/29
Jan 2-7H <--- adjusted the date
Jan 22L
  

Comments:

Long term indicators appear positive, so far and the ADL is still making new ATHs.   The LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-.   Well, we are now past this time frame and this is where we need to be careful and keep an eye on our indicators for any changes in the trend in 2018.
-Looking out into 2018 the Picasso LT cycles suggest a mid year low. 
-This also coincides with the four year Presidential cycle (2017-2020) where there is usually a low in the second year, (2nd yr is 2018), and a high in the third year, (3rd yr is 2019).  It is widely known that the mid-term years are the best years for the stock market.  
***Keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time!
The "key" is to be able to recognize when the second year low is in and when the third year high is in. 


Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wednesday, December 20, 2017

charts: DJTA daily

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

charts: DJIA daily

Jan 2016 - June 2017
Jan 2016 - Current
Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sunday, December 10, 2017

charts: SPY 10day Hi-Lo & S&P500 daily



In both of the above charts it appears that the market may have some rough sledding ahead. 
It seems that the market may correct and or have some sideways chop.
This is happening just when the Picasso Cycles suggests that the market maybe in the window of a high.  See posts for the last Picasso Cycle Update.
A pullback at this time +/- may give way to some kind of short term OS or undervalued market which should be a base for a rally into the February/March2018 time frame.  After that, if it does happen, the Picasso Cycles still suggests a mid-year low.
After that......well, first lets take one day, one week, one month at a time.
Updates will be made as the market progresses.


Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date. 

Picasso Dates, always +/- 
Aug 4-12 L  - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H  - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L  - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H  - High on 11/7
Nov 24-27L - Low was early on 11/15 and out of sync with the cycles 
Dec 3-9H - High on Dec 4, so far
Dec 25L 
Jan 7H
  

Comments:

Long term indicators appear positive, so far and the ADL is still making new ATHs.   The LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-.   Well, we are now in this time frame and this is where we need to be careful and keep an eye on our indicators for any change in the trend. 
-Looking out into 2018 the Picasso LT cycles suggest a mid year low.  
-This also coincides with the four year Presidential cycle (2017-2020) where there is usually a low in the second year, (2nd yr is 2018), and a high in the third year, (3rd yr is 2019).  It is widely known that the mid-term years are the best years for the stock market.  (Keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time!)
The "key" is to be able to recognize when the second year low is in and when the third year high is in. 


Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thursday, November 30, 2017

Escape Velocity for the Transports?

On Friday, March 4,2016 this blog posted data and information on the Escape Velocity as it was applied to the S&P500. 
The link to this post --->   http://bit.ly/2Aqm3ub

Excerpts from the above post is below.
Why?  Because the DJTransports just had 3 consecutive days of over a 1 1/2% gain each day.
Not sure if the Escape Velocity applies to the DJTransports, but, it has a lot of momentum regardless.

See for yourself...
Posted, Friday, March 4,2016
This post is about an article found on MarketWatch.com
The link to this article can be found at the bottom of this post.

"Historical pattern says the risk of a 2016 bear market is zero"
 By Simon Maierhofer
Published: Feb 25,2016  12:57p.m. ET

In physics, escape velocity is the minimum speed needed for an object to break free from the gravitational attraction of a massive body. What is the “escape velocity” needed for stocks to break their down trend?
Unlike in physics, there is no fail-proof formula for stocks. However, based on history, the S&P 500 just rallied strongly enough to end its down trend. How so?
Stock-market 'escape velocity'
On Feb. 12, 16 and 17, the S&P 500 gained more than 1.5% a day for three consecutive days. Since 1970, this has happened only eight other times. The table below lists each occurrence along with the daily consecutive gains, and the return a year after the last “kickoff” day.
The Index used in the data above was the S&P500 and NOT the DJTransports
 Observations by author

  • Every single time the S&P 500 gained more than 1.5% a day for three consecutive days, it traded higher a year later.
  • The S&P 500 violated the low set prior to the kickoff move only twice (1987, 2002). Both times it bounced back quickly.
  • In 2016, the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week low before its kickoff rally. In 1970, 1987 and 2011, the S&P 500 also closed at a 52-week just before soaring higher.
  • Obviously, kickoff rallies like this are not the only factor driving stocks, but this particular pattern confirms the six reasons for a stock market rally listed by the February 11 Profit Radar Report (all six reasons are available here).
  • The Feb. 11 Profit Radar Report recommended buying the S&P 500 at 1,828 (after it fell as low as 1,810) in anticipation of a sizeable rally.
  • As compelling as this historic pattern may be, tunnel vision is a luxury investors can't afford. It's worth noting that the 2016 kickoff is weaker (in terms of consecutive percentage gains) than prior kickoff rallies, and our major-market-top liquidity indicator raised a caution flag in May 2015.
  • The scope of this rally has yet to be revealed, and a break below the February low is still possible (like in 1987 and 2002).
  • Regardless of the S&P's near-term path, history says we shouldn't under estimate this kickoff rally. Acting on the sentiment-based buy signal at S&P 1,828 provided a low-risk entry point and insurance against a runaway rally.
Link to full article
 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/historic-pattern-says-the-risk-of-a-2016-bear-market-is-zero-2016-02-25

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.