Tuesday, August 7, 2018

Chart Updates: DIA SPY QQQ IWM

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com 
The Oversold indicator is highlighted by the red circle.These charts are simple to read and easy to interpret.


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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wednesday, August 1, 2018

So when might this Bull end?

This year, the 2nd year of the Presidential cycle, and the Decennial Cycle seem to be playing out according to their scripts.

This bull market, as we have been hearing over and over again, is long in the tooth.

So when might this bull end?   Below is a chart and some statistics that may offer some clues.

We have discussed the Presidential Cycle in past blog posts.  So lets get right to the 2nd year which is where we are right now, 2018.  From the low in the 2nd year to the high in the 3rd year there has been excellent gains over the past 100 years +/-.   Below is the data for you to review.

Courtesy of Stock Traders Almanac
As you can see the gains have been great. 

Another Cycle to look at in addition to the Presidential Cycle is the Decennial Cycle.
This cycle shows that  lows and or bottoms in the stock market have been made in the first half of the decade and highs and or tops have been made in the second half of the decade.
You can see this in the following chart.

Courtesy of SeasonalCharts.com

Putting these two Cycles together, one might suspect that stocks may go higher into 2019 and that some sort of correction may commence and end in 2021-2023.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.



Friday, July 27, 2018

STIX Stock Market Indicator

By   www.marketvolume.com

STIX indicator is the short-term index measuring the portion of the advancing stocks in the total number of the stocks listed in a market index. The STIX indicator is used in technical analysis to reveal overbought and oversold level on the market (when applied to Exchanges) and market sectors (when applied to market indexes).

Description
The STIX (Short Term Index) was first time mentioned by Picton Davies in his "The Polymetric Report Stix Record Book" in 1985. It is based on comparison of the number of advancing and declining stocks.

Traditionally, STIX based on the Exponential Moving Average with 21-bar period setting applied to the advance decline issues ratio and it oscillates in the range from 0 to 100. On our index charts you may have custom EMA applied to the Advance/decline ratio.

Technical Analysis, Signals and Trading Systems
In technical analysis the STIX index is used to determine the overbought and oversold condition on Exchanges and on market sectors covered by indexes. According to the "Polymetric Report" when EMA with 21-bar period setting is used

  • Most of the time the STIX indicator moves in the rage between 42 and 58;
  • When the STIX indicator drops below 42 level it could be an indication of oversold market and it could be used as a signal to buy (except it is ranging Bear Market);
  • The market is considered overbought when the STIX indicator raises above 56 (unless it is a new Bull Market);
  • The market is considered strongly overbought and a "Sell" signal could be generated when the STIX indicator moves above 58 level (again, unless it is a new Bull Market).
In general the STIX readings could be put into the following overbought/oversold table (bear in mind that this is for the STIX with 21 bar period setting):

Overbought / Oversold ConditionSTIX(21) Values
Extremely Overboughtgreater than 58
Fairly Overboughtgreater than 56
Fairly Oversoldless than 45
Extremely Oversoldless than 42

Comments by JustSignals 
At the close, Thursday July 26,2018, the STIX was "56.2"



Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saturday, July 21, 2018

Chart Updates: SLY IWM QQQ MDY SPY DIA

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Note that each chart is more Overbought than at the last post on July 14,2018.  The Overbought indicator is highlighted by the red circle.
Also the Chaikin Money flow of all the charts are weak.  As you can see, some weaker than others. 
Most CMF did not move up when the market moved up or they had a weak move up and failed to even reach the previous high.
This may turn out to be ominous in the short term.
In addition the DIA is still trading below it's moving average.


Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.



Saturday, July 14, 2018

charts: DIA SPY QQQ IWM

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Note that each chart is at or near Overbought indicted by the red circle.
Also the Chaikin Money flow of all the charts are weak.  As you can see, some weaker than others. 
Most CMF did not move up when the market moved up or they had a weak move up and failed to even reach the previous high.
This may turn out to be ominous in the short term.
In addition the DIA is trading below it's moving average.


Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thursday, July 5, 2018

Picasso Cycle Update

The Short Term Picasso Cycle is not yet in sync with the stock market so only the Long Term Picasso Cycle will be discussed at this time.


Long term
As previously discussed, the LT cycles suggested a high in late November/early December and this suggested high on the LT Cycles chart kept shifting forward until it stopped dead on Jan. 17,2018.  Shortly thereafter, the stock market slide 10%+/-.

-Looking out into 2018 the Picasso LT cycles still suggest a mid year low, BUT, the mid year low is now shifting forward with the addition of new daily and weekly data.  It currently is suggesting a low in late July/early August.
-This also coincides with the four year Presidential cycle (2017-2020) where there is usually a low in the second year, (2nd yr is 2018), and a high in the third year, (3rd yr is 2019).  It is widely known that the mid-term years are the best years for the stock market.  

***Keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time!
The "key" is to be able to recognize when the second year low is in and when the third year high is in.   
This will be watched carefully and an update will be made when the charts and cycles suggest that a bottom has been made. 

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

chrts: SPY IWM

courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
Note that each chart is Over Sold indicted by the red circle.
Also the Relative Strength of IWM is stronger than the Relative Strength of SPY.  This can be seen in the Relative Strength bar being either red or green.


Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.