Monday, July 24, 2017

chart: Market Valuations

Courtesy of dshort.com
We are currently the second highest stock market valuation in the past 100 years.
The yellow area is now the window we are in which represents the 1929 high and the 2000 high.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart: DIA is OB ?

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
Note that green arrows show the ETF rising as it went from OS to OB.
During this rise in price the yellow arrows show a falling Chaikin Money Flow and a falling Relative Strength.   RS also started falling below 0.00 or neutral.  This is not what you want to see if you think the ETF is going to continue rising.  You would want to see more confirmation of a rising ETF, that is, more green in both the Chaikin Money Flow & Relative Strength.

Since the Advance Decline Line (ADL) is still making new highs, it would be nice to see a "Pause that Refreshes" here and then another push up to new highs again.  Over the last 100years +/-, the stock market has not topped out making new ATHs  along with the ADL making new ATHs.   They don't usually do it together.  The ADL usually tops out first and then the stock market in a negative divergence pattern.

The Picasso Cycle Dates, posted July 14th, suggested a high July 19-28.   The Longer Term Picasso Cycle Dates suggest a pause in August and a high later in the year.   This would be great if it all fell into place this nicely.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

charts:Indices YTD Performance

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
Nasdaq100 (QQQ) outperformed other indexes.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Charts: Correction Coming? Or the Pause that Refreshes?

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Lots of negative divergence.  Is a correction coming or is this the pause that refreshes?

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results





Friday, July 14, 2017

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date. 

Picasso Dates, always +/- 
Mar 3-14 H - high occurred on Mar 15th
Mar 20-28 L - possible low occurring in this time frame - Low occurred on March 27th
Apr 10-13 H (+/-) - high occurred on April 5th & later on Apr 10th
Apr 4/21-24 L (+/-) - lows occurred on April 13th, 18th, 19th, 21st
Apr 28- May8 H - highs on April 26th & May 9th...only 3 day correction, then grinded higher
May 21 L  - actual low 2 TD's early on May18
May 25-June 1 H - June 1 hit a high then grinded marginally higher to June 9
June 10-19 L - actual low June 16
June 28-July3 H - June 26th high near this time frame - DJIA high, so far, July 3rd
July 7-14 L - low was July 11
July 19-28 H 
Aug 4-12 L

Comments
See new comments in blue above and below.

Long term indicators appear positive, so far.  Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside.  So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
In addition, the LT cycles still suggest a high around April-June +/-, a low in August +/- & a high in November +/-.  Currently, highs have been made on June 19 & July 3rd.
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday, July 13, 2017

charts: SIgns of a ST low

Courtesy of @IndexIndicators.com

Courtesy of StockCharts.com
These two charts are confirming the Picasso Cycle Dates probable short term low during July 7th to July 14th.
See the July 9th post.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Sunday, July 9, 2017

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date. 

Picasso Dates, always +/- 
Mar 3-14 H - high occurred on Mar 15th
Mar 20-28 L - possible low occurring in this time frame - Low occurred on March 27th
Apr 10-13 H (+/-) - high occurred on April 5th & later on Apr 10th
Apr 4/21-24 L (+/-) - lows occurred on April 13th, 18th, 19th, 21st
Apr 28- May8 H - highs on April 26th & May 9th...only 3 day correction, then grinded higher
May 21 L  - actual low 2 TD's early on May18
May 25-June 1 H - June 1 hit a high then grinded marginally higher to June 9
June 10-19 L - actual low June 16
June 28-July3 H - June 26th high near this time frame - DJIA high, so far, July 3rd
July 7-14 L 
July 19-28 H

Comments
See new comments in blue above and below.

Long term indicators appear positive, so far.  Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside.  So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
In addition, the LT cycles still suggest a high around April-June +/-, a low in August +/- & a high in November +/-.  Currently, highs have been made on June 19 & July 3rd.
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

charts: Equities vs Commodities

In the In the 9 yrs following the 1st green circle, gold rose from $42 to $800.  
In the 12 yrs following the 2nd, gold rose from $300 to $1900. 

Saturday, July 8, 2017

Equities Expensive and Commodities Cheap?

Incrementum AG (Jun 1, 2017) - In a historical context, the relative valuation of commodities to equities seems extremely low. In relation to the S&P500, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) is currently trading at the lowest level in 50 years. 


The chart outlines the valuation of the GSCI relative to the S&P500. The GSCI comprises 24 commodities from all commodity sectors and serves as a benchmark for investment in the commodity markets and as a measure of commodity performance over time. If the ratio is low (green circles), it means that commodities are cheap relative to shares. If the ratio is at a high level (red circles), like during the Gulf Crisis in 1990, the prices of raw materials are relatively expensive.

The current ratio is 0.87 while the median is at 4.1. A return to the median gives 371% potential, but in most cases a rally doesn't stop at the median. In absolute terms, the scene seems set for a new bull market for commodities. According to Ned Davis Research, commodities gained 217% on average over the period of a bull market. 




Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday, July 3, 2017

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date. 

Picasso Dates, always +/- 
Mar 3-14 H - high occurred on Mar 15th
Mar 20-28 L - possible low occurring in this time frame - Low occurred on March 27th
Apr 10-13 H (+/-) - high occurred on April 5th & later on Apr 10th
Apr 4/21-24 L (+/-) - lows occurred on April 13th, 18th, 19th, 21st
Apr 28- May8 H - highs on April 26th & May 9th...only 3 day correction, then grinded higher
May 21 L  - actual low 2 TD's early on May18
May 25-June 1 H - June 1 hit a high then grinded marginally higher to June 9
June 10-19 L - actual low June 16
June 28-July3 H - June 26th high near this time frame
July 7-14 L

Comments
See new comments in blue above and below.

Long term indicators appear positive, so far.  Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside.  So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
In addition, the LT cycles appear to have shifted.  The LT cycles now suggest a high around April-June +/-, a low in August +/- & a high in November +/-. 
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

July is historically a strong month


As per the chart above, July is one of the strong months of the year, historically.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. 
Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results

Sector Performance

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics
Note that, as of Friday's close, 6/30/17,  only 3 sectors are stronger than the SPY and 7 sectors are weaker than the SPY.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. 
Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results