Friday, October 30, 2015

chart: SPX Rising Wedge

Courtesy of StockCharts.com
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Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart: Institutional Selling ?


By Marty Chenard
What are Institutional Investors doing? 
The good news is that Institutional Investors are in Accumulation ... it is low Accumulation due to its down trending.
At the same time (see today's chart below), Institutional Selling has appeared and is in a low level up trend. Increased selling is a concern.

Courtesy of StockTiming.com

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Thursday, October 29, 2015

chart: 1929 DJIA

Courtesy of Worden Bros.
The chart above is the DJIA weekly chart of 1929.  Many people have said that things were different back then.  There were no computers.  Communication was so different.  Etc, etc, etc.   If you look at the chart and you did not know that it was from 1929 you would not know when it was from.  The market in 1929 did not act much different than from a couple of other times in the past.
There was a big negative divergence in this chart.  The price bars made higher highs (green line) while the indicators and histograms were making lower highs (red lines).
Note that charts like this were computed then, but, by hand and mostly by professionals in the business because they had the access to the data.
Other stock market tops will be posted also.  It will be a good exercise in reviewing them and see what to look for at potential tops because we know one is coming if it is not here already.

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Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Trading Patterns & First Day Gains









Browsing the Fidelity Customer Service Learning Center can be very useful

Monthly trading patterns: Human behavior shapes market activity
By Jeffrey A. Hirsch
 www.stocktradersalmanac.com

Click on the following link for the full article
http://bit.ly/1HbpM7W

The following is an excerpt from the article

Monthly cash inflows into S&P stocks  

For many years, the last trading day of the month plus the first four of the following month were the best market days of the month. This pattern is shown in Figure 1, where from 1953-1981 the S&P 500 shows these five consecutive trading days posting gains a much larger percentage of the time than the other 16 trading days of the average month. The rationale was that individuals and institutions tended to operate similarly, causing a massive flow of cash into stocks near beginnings of months.

Courtesy of Jeffrey A. Hirsch

“Front-running” traders took advantage of this phenomenon, drastically altering the previous pattern. Figure 2, which follows the S&P 500 from 1982 onward, shows the trading shift caused by these “anticipators” to the last three trading days of the month plus the first two. Another astonishing development shows the ninth, tenth, and eleventh trading days rising strongly as well. One possible explanation is that this mid-month bulge is caused by the enormous growth of 401(k) retirement plans (participants’ salaries are usually paid twice monthly).

 
Courtesy of Jeffrey A. Hirsch

DJIA gains more on first day than all other days

Over the last 15 1/4 years the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained more points on the first trading days of all months than all other days combined. While the Dow has gained 5481.72 points between September 2, 1997 (7622.42) and December 31, 2012 (13104.14), 5323.19 points were gained on the first trading days of these 184 months. The remaining 3674 trading days combined gained just 158.53 points during the period. This averages out to gains of 28.93 points on first days, in contrast to only 0.04 points on all others. See Table 1.
Note that September 1997 through October 2000 racked up a total gain of 2632.39 Dow points on the first trading days of these 38 months (winners except for seven occasions). But between November 2000 and September 2002, when the 2000-2002 bear markets did the bulk of their damage, frightened investors switched from pouring money into the market on that day to pulling it out in fourteen months out of twenty-three. This netted a 404.80 Dow point loss. The 2007-2009 bear market lopped off 964.14 Dow points on first days in 17 months from November 2007 to March 2009. First days had their worst year in 2011, declining seven times for a total loss of 644.45 Dow points.
First days of June have performed worst. Triple digit declines in four of the last five years have resulted in the worst net loss. August is the second net loser. In rising market trends, first days perform much better as institutions are likely anticipating strong performance at each month’s outset. S&P 500 first days track the Dow’s pattern closely but NASDAQ first days are not as strong with weakness in April, August, and October.

Courtesy of Jeffrey A. Hirsch
 For more information contact
 JEFFREY A. HIRSCH, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac and Almanac Investor newsletter, and the author of The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles (Wiley, 2012).
 www.stocktradersalmanac.com

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Past performance is not indicative of future results


Following BIG October Gains

StockTradersAlmanac.com Alert  – What November & December could look like following big October gains

By Jeffrey A. Hirsch
CEO: Hirsch Holdings | Editor: Stock Trader’s Almanac & Almanac Investor

www.stocktradersalmanac.com

 First at hat tip to Sam Stovall at S&P Capital IQ for a nice research piece, released earlier today, titled "Stealing from Santa” which looked at big October S&P 500 gains. As its title suggests, past October S&P 500 gains in excess of 7% did tend to proceed below average gains in the November-December timeframe. Digging into our own database we found Sam’s research to be spot on. Since 1950, there have been just five previous Octobers where the S&P 500 was up 8% or more on the 17th trading day of the month; 1974, 1975, 1982, 2002 and 2011. By month end, 1974, 1982, 2002 and 2011 were still above 8% and were joined by 1998 and November and December combined produced a below average 1.9% gain.


In the following chart the 30 trading days before and 60 trading days after the first trading day in November following full-month October S&P 500 gains of 8% or more have been plotted. 20 Trading days before “0” day is approximately the end of September. 21 Trading days to the right of “0” is approximately the end of November and 42 trading days is approximately the end of December. 


Courtesy of StockTradersAlmanac.com

Following October’s massive move, it is not surprising to see a tepid November as gains are consolidated and some profits taken. However, around the middle of December (approximately 9-11 trading days on December calendar) the market found support and briskly rallied to close out the year. Buying the mid-December low (trading days 30-32 on the chart) and holding into early January (trading days 45-47 on chart or 3-5 on January calendar) saw an average move of around 7%.

For further information please contact:
Jeffrey A. Hirsch
CEO: Hirsch Holdings | Editor: Stock Trader’s Almanac & Almanac Investor

www.stocktradersalmanac.com

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart: Fear Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN.com/Money
Note in the above chart that the fear greed index was 12 just one month ago.


Courtesy of CNN.com/Money
In the above chart the fear greed index over time is now in the low part of the window where tops have occurred.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday, October 27, 2015

chart: BABA

Courtesy of TradeStation
BABA gapped open at 82.11 and as this is being written is trading at 79.24
One theory of buy the rumor and sell the news still seems good.
The indicators in the BABA daily chart above are circled at the buy areas.  What is nice here is that they all lined up well enough to take a position.  Then sell on the news.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday, October 26, 2015

RYDEX Fund NAVs & Assets

Last posted on September 14,2015
Updates in BLUE - Each of the funds below inched closer to their extreme readings

RYFXX - Rydex US Government Money Market
RYNVX - Rydex Nova Fund Investor Class (Long Fund)
RYURX -  Rydex Inverse S&P 500® Strategy Fund Investor Class (Inverse Fund)

RYFXX   3-10-09   $1,367Mil   3-10-15   $655Mil   9-9-15   $1,434Mil
                                                                                   9-14-15  $1,451Mil    
                                                                                 10-26-15    $862Mil  -$589Mil
RYNVX  3-11-09   $21.96 Mil  5-14-15    $177Mil   9-4-15       $53Mil 
                                                                                    9-14-15      $52Mil
                                                                                  10-26-15    $140Mil +$88Mil
RYURX   3-9-09        $353Mil   5-4-15   $58.34Mil   9-9-15    $148Mil
                                                                                    9-14-15   $172Mil
                                                                                  10-26-15   $117Mil  -$55Mil

The interesting data is that the Money Market Fund is higher now than at March 2009.
The Long Fund is $125Mil less now than at 5-14-15, but not as low as it was in March 2009.
t not as high as it was in March 2009.

Note that in March 2015 and in May 2015 the stock market made highs.  So the RYFXX, RYNVX and the RYURX were at extremes.  They are at extremes now but not all time extremes.

More evidence of a possible bottom, or near a bottom.

The following is from Oct 26,2015

Data Courtesy of Guggenheim RYDEX
Up above in BOLD is the dollar difference in each fund between Sept 14,2015 and Oct 26,2015.  Big swings have occurred that indicate the current bullishness of investors.  In the chart directly above you can see the dollar shift in each of the funds between Friday Oct 23rd and Monday Oct 26th.  Investors must have read a lot of bullish articles and or listened to bullish financial news programs over the weekend that influenced the buying of long funds and the selling of inverse funds and to put more money to work.
So is the market near a short term top or is this fuel to push the market higher and bring more dollars in to the market?
To move the market up a slow gradual shift of funds seems to be healthier than a big shift in dollars that you might see after a gap up (breakaway gap, runaway gap or exhaustion gap) or after a nice run up getting closer to a top.



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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Friday, October 23, 2015

charts: Long Term & Worth Seeing

Courtesy of John Hampson  @SolarCyclesNet



Compelling reasons why we could be close to reaching a high in the stock market if we did not reach it already.
  
Courtesy of John Hampson  @SolarCyclesNet
 In the last two major tops the CMF topped out before the stock market.


Courtesy of John M
The Consumer Sentiment Data from the University of Michigan appears to top before the stock market in the last two major tops.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart: What does a strong October mean ?

"Why A Big October May Mean Strong 4th Quarter For Stocks"
By Ryan Detrick   SeeItMarket.com
For the full article click on the following link    
http://bit.ly/1NrS7eF

Courtesy of Ryan Detrick    SeeItMarket.com
 
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Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart: SPX Gartley Pattern

Courtesy of TradingView.com
DEFINITION of 'Gartley Pattern'
In technical analysis, it is a complex price pattern based on Fibonacci numbers/ratios. It is used to determine buy and sell signals by measuring price retracements of a stock's up and down movement in stock price.

Gartley Pattern
 
BREAKING DOWN 'Gartley Pattern' The above Gartley example shows an uptrend XA with a price reversal at A. Using Fibonacci ratios, the retracement AB should be 61.8% of the price range A minus X, as shown by line XB. At B, the price reverses again. Ideally, retracement BC should be between 61.8% and 78.6% of the AB price range, not the length of the lines, and is shown along the line AC. At C, the price again reverses with retracement CD between 127% and 161.8% of the range BC and is shown along the line BD. Price D is the point to buy/sell (bullish/bearish Gartley pattern) as the price is about to increase/decrease.
 
 
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chart: Fear Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN/Money

We haven't seen this indicator in the Green Greed area in a while...

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Thursday, October 22, 2015

Short Term Update

The following was posted on October 9,2015
Today's comments are in Blue

Short term details:(every date is +/-)
On Wednesday Oct 7, 2015 there was a Zweig Breadth Thrust.  To review that post go to this link   
During a thrust some indicators may become OB and stay there until the momentum starts to fade.  We "may" be in that environment.  This is what happened.

Oct 11-13 low, with some importance on Oct 12th   Oct 12th was important, the DJIA had a closing high on Oct 12th.   All dates are +/- and the Oct 11-13 projected low came on Oct 14th.   
 
The Oct 12,2015 date still comes up as a date to watch, so, it "may" be a high instead of a low as first thought.  Oct 12th did end up being a closing high for the DJIA.
 
Oct 15-17 & Oct 18 possible volatility  Yes, Oct 14th was down big and Oct 15th was up big.  
 
Oct 26 high   In the posting made earlier on Oct 22nd the Oct 26 high was changed to Oct 23rd to Oct 26th+/-.  
 
Oct 30th low
Nov 2nd high
Nov 4-6 some kind of consolidation or a bias up into Nov 6
Nov 9th low
Nov 12th high
Nov 17th low
 
More as we get through some of these dates...
 
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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Chaikin charts: DIA IWM QQQ SPY XIV

Now what should we expect ?  To help answer this see the charts below, DIA IWM QQQ SPY XIV.
The price in each chart is below Chaikin's proprietary 200DMA and near or at the top of the white trading bands, Trend is weak, Relative Strength indicators circled in yellow are weak and the OverBought/OverSold indicator just turned down as indicated by the yellow arrow.
(Note that the Relative Strength indicator in the SPY chart should be ignored because the Relative Strength indicator in all charts is calculated relative to the SPY.  That is why the Relative Strength indicator on the SPY chart is a solid straight line.)

As of this writing, the Pre-market DJIA futures are up +135.00.  This is not a surprise as the next cycle date is Oct 26th +/-.  This was posted on Oct 9th.  Cycle dates will be updated soon.   The Oct 26th date will be changed to Oct 23-26+/-.  A turn "may" occur in the late October early November time frame.  More on this later. 

There are warning signs popping up so be aware and watch your indicators carefully for any changes.  
Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart: GLD is Over Bought (OB)

Data courtesy of Worden Bros

This is a Daily chart and used for swing trading.  The following mentioned symbols are also from Daily charts for the purpose of swing trading...

Of the few dozen symbols charted, many of the precious metals look very much like the chart of GLD above, OB.

Other symbols, but not limited to these symbols,  look very similar.  They are, CU, OIL,  AWK, CVX, DD, EEM, DJSH-X, MXY-X, XLE.

When looking at the signals for the stock market, the signals of the SPY, which can be used as a proxy for the stock market, are grouped with the signals of the Advances/Decliners, Cumulative Volume, % Stocks above the 200DMA and % Stocks above the 40DMA.  If 2-3 of them are on a sell signal or if 2-3 of them are on a buy signal, it is interpreted as a valid signal.  This theory was back tested only for the past 3 years, 2013, 2014 & 2015 and it worked well during that period.  The reason for using 4-5 charts is that not every chart becomes OB or OS each and every time together.  If it did, your job would be that much easier and the stoack market doesn't want to make it easy for anybody.
Currently 4 of the 5 are on a sell signal.  So caution here is warranted.  Keep an eye on the indicators that work best for you.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results



Wednesday, October 21, 2015

chart: SPX at .618 Time & Price

Courtesy of Nautilus Research @NautilusCap
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chart: DJIA at 17,300

Courtesy of Chris Kimble  @KimbleCharting
Being that the DJIA touched 17300 today, thought it would be a good idea to post this chart.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Ferrari on the NYSE



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chart: TBT

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
Chart as of the close on Tuesday, Oct 20,2015

Yellow and red trend lines were added to the above chart.  The the rising yellow trend line displays when TBT was going from OS to OB.  At the same time the red trend line shows that the Relative Strength was decreasing.  It is customary for both of these to be going in the same general direction during a similar period of time.  Unless the relative strength catches up to the OBOS indicator, you may have trouble right here in River City.

At the time this was written TBT was   -.77   1.77%

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Past performance is not indicative of future results



Tuesday, October 20, 2015

chart: Seasonality & the 200DMA

By EquityClock.com
For the full article and many Seasonality charts of stocks entering seasonal strength today, go to the following link       http://bit.ly/1jyP3DZ

The Markets
Stocks ended mixed on Monday with little presented to move equities one way or the other.  The S&P 500 Index gained a mere three basis points, holding below critical resistance presented around 2040.  Looking at the hourly chart of the large-cap index, momentum indicators, including stochastics and MACD, are rolling over, suggesting a retracement of the recent gains may be on the horizon.  Typically, by this point in the earnings season, investors will have gained a reasonable understanding of the strength of corporate America and subsequently pull the rug out from below stocks after driving them higher into the early releases.  Between the close of October 21st and the close of October 27th, the S&P 500 Index has declined by 0.78%, on average, with losses recorded in 11 of the past 20 periods.  This brief pullback in the broad market clears way for the positive six month seasonal trend that starts on October 28th, on average.  As reported yesterday, the key hurdle overhead remains the 200-day moving average and the risks that are present when the best six months of the year starts below this long-term level.  It may take a catalyst to achieve this significant break; whether the market can obtain this catalyst is anybody’s guess.


Courtesy of EquityClock.com & StockCharts.com

Courtesy of EquityClock.com
NOTE - both years ending in a "5" had small losses


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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday, October 19, 2015

chart: Pattern Recognition

Courtesy of Worden Bros
There are four charts above.  1987, 2010, 2011 & 2015.
Each chart displays the stock market selloffs in each of those years.
What is interesting is the patterns subsequent to each selloff.
One can say that the patterns are a display of the human emotions after each selloff.
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme" - Mark Twain
The vertical yellow highlights show the respective highs and lows matched up as best as possible.
The chart suggests that a small selloff "may" be ahead of us soon.
In 1987, 2010 & 2011 the stock market continued higher after those small selloffs.  This year we experienced the Zweig Breadth Thrust which may be hinting of further gains ahead.
This may or may not happen this time around, but, it will be addressed once we get to that point.
These charts compliment the post made on Oct 18,2015, Stock Market, What's next ?
Which can be seen using this link   
In scrolling back through many years worth of charts, November has been a month in which some selloffs have occurred.  The stock market has just started it's favorable six month period and it doesn't go straight up so expect some turns along the way, November "may" be one of those turns.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results


Sunday, October 18, 2015

chart: Stock Market, What's Next ?

The Stock Market is Doing Exactly What It Always Does
        By Business Insider
        Full Article at      http://read.bi/1ZPxrEv
In a recent slide deck sent out to clients, Deutsche Bank group chief economist David Folkerts-Landau included a chart, which shows the S&P 500's current correction-and-recovery episode compared to the historical average. 
Interestingly, the S&P is tracking the average gains following prior 10%+ corrections. The two lines even overlap nicely around the 30-days-after-the-trough zone.
So, nothing looks out of the ordinary for now.
However, even though the S&P has been more-or-less following the trajectory of the historical average for now, that does not mean that it will continue to do so in the future...
In any case, check out the chart below.
Courtesy of @BusinessInsider
The following chart is a product of EquityClock.com
Equity Clock is a division of the Tech Talk Financial Network, a market analysis company that provides technical, fundamental and seasonality analysis on a daily basis via TimingTheMarkets.com and EquityClock.com.   Equity Clock’s mission is to identify periods of reoccurring strength among individual equities in the market using methodologies presented by some of the top analysts in the industry, including that of Don Vialoux, author of TimingTheMarkets.com.
Feel free to use any of the content or seasonality studies (charts, timelines, or otherwise) presented as long as a link-back to this site at EquityClock.com is provided.

Courtesy of EquityClock.com
In the above chart the vertical color areas were added to make it easier to see the approximate months of November (yellow), December (blue),  January (purple) and February (green).

What is interesting is that these two charts that were produced by two different firms look very similar going forward.
When combining information from the above charts with prior posts like,
1- Sy Harding's STS posted Oct 15,2015
2- Record Bet Against Stocks posted Oct 9,2015
3- Zweig Breadth Thrust posted Oct 9,2015
it helps add more evidence that the stock market "may" see higher prices.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Saturday, October 17, 2015

chart: McClellan Oscilllator Interpretation

Courtesy of McClellan Financial Publications
By Tom McClellan
We have learned a lot about the behavior of the McClellan A-D Oscillator since my parents, Sherman and Marian McClellan, brought it to the public back in 1969.  One of the points that we have learned is that the proper way to interpret it depends on the market environment you are in at any given moment.
If I were to distill all of the collected wisdom about the McClellan Oscillator into simple sound bites, I would have to break it down according to levels of understanding of the complex messages it can convey.  So here, in degrees of increasing sophistication, are the important points:
McClellan Oscillator 101 – Positive is good, negative is bad.
McClellan Oscillator 201 – Overbought and oversold readings are important, as are divergences, although they can sometimes be misleading.
McClellan Oscillator 301 – Complex structures above or below zero convey an important message about which side, bulls or bears, is in control.  Conversely, simple across-and-back structures imply a lack of control.
Graduate Level – How one should interpret the McClellan Oscillator is dependent on whether the stock market is in an uptrend or a downtrend.
Now some explanation, as I try to bring you all up to the graduate level in one fell swoop.  When the stock market is in an uptrend, if you see the McClellan A-D Oscillator rise up to a level above +150, and the higher the better, it is a sign of strong upward initiation and a promise of even higher highs to follow.  Yes, it is an overbought condition, but an overbought reading in an uptrend is not a terminal event as one is in a downtrend.
We saw an example of that back in October 2014, at the left end of the chart above, when the Oscillator climbed up to a high of +271, and stayed at a high level for a long time.  It was a message that the worries over the Ebola Panic were done, and that there was still plenty of liquidity available to help lift the overall stock market.
Subsequent rallies were not quite as strong, and we did not see any subsequent instances of strongly positive Oscillator readings.  The final price high in May 2015 came with the McClellan A-D Oscillator at a peak reading of only +51, showing the tepid strength in the liquidity stream.
Now we are in a downtrend, and the countertrend rallies have been able to take the Oscillator up to a level which would otherwise be an indication of strong new upward initiation.  But the lack of follow through reveals those high readings to be markers of blowoff tops instead of strong new initiation.  The latest Oscillator peak rose all the way up to +303, and we thus far are not seeing follow-through.
If the Oscillator continues falling and goes back down through the zero line without building any complexity up above zero, then that will be a “tell” that the recent bounce has been just a countertrend rally, and is not the start of a new uptrend.  That is the outcome which I expect to see, and so the Oscillator serves as a great tool for confirmation of expectations.
As an historical example of this principle, this next chart looks back at the period from 2008 to 2009.
Courtesy of McClellan Financial Publications

During the whole of the bear market in 2008, we saw several instances of the McClellan A-D Oscillator rising up to very high levels, not just above +150 but up well above +200.  And in each case, it marked the end of a countertrend rally rather than the initiation of a new uptrend.  It was not until we got past the final bottom in March 2009 that the meaning of the very high Oscillator readings started to change.  Each subsequent instance of a very high Oscillator reading marked another bullish wave of upward initiation.
If one had been looking at these readings in real time, it might have been hard to know that the really high readings in late March 2009 were somehow different than the ones all during 2008.  So if one had only the McClellan Oscillator as a tool, then it would have been possible to make an initial misinterpretation of the surge higher in March 2009, thinking that it was just another countertrend rally.  But the tell in that case was that the Oscillator remained at a high level longer than in all of the countertrend rallies of 2008, and the market refused to stop going up.  At some point an honest analyst would have to change his view and accept that there had been a sea-change.
That’s easy for me to say now, and it would have been hard to do in real time as it was happening back then, I know.  But this serves as a good lesson for us all to remember as we seek to properly interpret what we see in the Oscillator and in the market going forward from here.
By that, I mean that if the +303 McClellan Oscillator reading on Oct. 8 is followed by a prompt downturn and no further upward movement, it will be a tell that we have just seen yet another countertrend rally within what is supposed to be a downtrend lasting until at least April 2016.  But if, instead, the Oscillator stays above zero long enough to push the Ratio Adjusted Summation Index above +500, then that will be an entirely different message.
If you want to learn more about the McClellan Oscillator and how to interpret it, start with our Learning Center articles which are free for everyone.  Then consider ordering our Advanced Topics Seminar video, which features lessons on how to interpret the McClellan Oscillator plus a whole lot more.  And if you would like to order a new eBook-format copy of Sherman and Marian McClellan’s original 1970 book, Patterns For Profit, visit our Books and DVDs page.
Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday, October 15, 2015

Sy Harding's STS

This was posted on Sept 28,2015 and since tomorrow is Oct 16,2015 it is timely to post it again.

Excerpts from "Beat the Market the Easy Way" by Sy Harding
"Sell in May and Go Away"
"Ned Davis Research Inc. published numerous studies showing the positive  historical results of being invested in the markets for the seven month period of October 1 to May 1, and being in cash the other five months."
"Thus an investor standing aside during the market's infavorable seasons not only matched the buy and hold performance of the S&P 500 and did so with only 50% of market risk, but also avoided the emotional stress  of seeing portfolios often plunge precipitously during unfavorable seasons."

  "IT IS NOT A FIXED 6-MONTHS IN, 6-MONTHS OUT!"

It is BEST to read this book.  The book is available at many libraries, either in paper or digital versions or it can be purchased easily online.

In summary, after the research made by Ned Davis Research Inc., Yale Hirsch of the Hirsch Organization and Alan Newman, editor of the Crosscurrents newsletter, Sy Harding's firm, Asset Management Research Corp. conducted more detailed research.  In their research they found that when the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), developed by Gerald Appel, was applied, the performance was much better.
"It works this way in our (Sy Harding's) seasonal strategy."
"If MACD is on a technical buy signal, indicating a rally is underway, when the October 16 earliest calendar date for seasonal entry arrives, we will enter at that time."
"However, if the MACD indicator is on a sell signal when the October 16 calendar date arrives, indicating a market decline is underway it would not make sense to enter before that decline ends, even though the average best calendar entry date has arrived.  In that event, our (Sy Harding's) Seasonal Timing Strategy simply waits to enter until MACD gives it's next buy signal, indicting that the decline has ended."
Use the same method in reverse when April 20 arrives to better pinpoint the end of the markets favorable period in the Spring.

Please take the time to read Sy Harding's book.  It is relatively short and easy to read and it has many more exciting findings by Sy Harding.

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results