Monday, November 13, 2017

Charts for "Sign of the Bear"

The indicator, Sign of the Bear, by Peter Eliades may be very important, so the charts are being displayed below on all the dates from this indicator.
Note that Peter's signals are based on his specific Rules and only the following dates were a result of these Rules since 1929.

On Friday November 10,2017 Peter Eliades was on FBN
Peter has a stock market newsletter called StockMarket Cycles.  He was discussing an indicator he discovered in 1992 that he calls, Sign of the Bear.   In short, there have been 8 occurrences in the past 88 years. Subsequent to these dates the stock market has fallen as follows. 
 
July 19,1929           -89%       
December 8,1961   -29%       
January 25,1966     -26.5%       
October 17,1968     -36.9%
December 6,1972    -46.5%       
April 6,1998              -21%       
September 15,2000 -32%       
July 10, 2001           -27% 
 
Now, why is this important?  Because another signal just occurred on October 25,2017.
 
For each date mentioned above a daily and weekly chart are shown below.
 
 

There is a vertical line on each chart at the signal dates so you can see the price action that occurred in each year after the signal date.  The price pattern after each date is slightly different.
But one thing stood out.  The two signals that had the smallest losses were 1966 and 1998.   Interestingly both of these years were the second year of the four year Presidential cycle and next year, 2018, is also the second year of the four year Presidential cycle.
So if history repeats itself, we could expect about a 20% - 25% correction.
 
More charts to follow...
 
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4 comments:

  1. Eliades said that there were two failed signals, one in 1993 and 1994. you can't leave them out.

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    2. The articles on the Sign of the Bear said there were a couple of false signals, but, the rules were then changed. With the new rules there was a "history" of good signals. This, of course, does not guarantee future signals using these new rules will work 100%...

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  2. Today is November 26, 2017 a month pass the signal date. The stock market has in fact gone up and not down. Can we conclude that this was a failed signal?

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