Thursday, November 30, 2017

Escape Velocity for the Transports?

On Friday, March 4,2016 this blog posted data and information on the Escape Velocity as it was applied to the S&P500. 
The link to this post --->   http://bit.ly/2Aqm3ub

Excerpts from the above post is below.
Why?  Because the DJTransports just had 3 consecutive days of over a 1 1/2% gain each day.
Not sure if the Escape Velocity applies to the DJTransports, but, it has a lot of momentum regardless.

See for yourself...
Posted, Friday, March 4,2016
This post is about an article found on MarketWatch.com
The link to this article can be found at the bottom of this post.

"Historical pattern says the risk of a 2016 bear market is zero"
 By Simon Maierhofer
Published: Feb 25,2016  12:57p.m. ET

In physics, escape velocity is the minimum speed needed for an object to break free from the gravitational attraction of a massive body. What is the “escape velocity” needed for stocks to break their down trend?
Unlike in physics, there is no fail-proof formula for stocks. However, based on history, the S&P 500 just rallied strongly enough to end its down trend. How so?
Stock-market 'escape velocity'
On Feb. 12, 16 and 17, the S&P 500 gained more than 1.5% a day for three consecutive days. Since 1970, this has happened only eight other times. The table below lists each occurrence along with the daily consecutive gains, and the return a year after the last “kickoff” day.
The Index used in the data above was the S&P500 and NOT the DJTransports
 Observations by author

  • Every single time the S&P 500 gained more than 1.5% a day for three consecutive days, it traded higher a year later.
  • The S&P 500 violated the low set prior to the kickoff move only twice (1987, 2002). Both times it bounced back quickly.
  • In 2016, the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week low before its kickoff rally. In 1970, 1987 and 2011, the S&P 500 also closed at a 52-week just before soaring higher.
  • Obviously, kickoff rallies like this are not the only factor driving stocks, but this particular pattern confirms the six reasons for a stock market rally listed by the February 11 Profit Radar Report (all six reasons are available here).
  • The Feb. 11 Profit Radar Report recommended buying the S&P 500 at 1,828 (after it fell as low as 1,810) in anticipation of a sizeable rally.
  • As compelling as this historic pattern may be, tunnel vision is a luxury investors can't afford. It's worth noting that the 2016 kickoff is weaker (in terms of consecutive percentage gains) than prior kickoff rallies, and our major-market-top liquidity indicator raised a caution flag in May 2015.
  • The scope of this rally has yet to be revealed, and a break below the February low is still possible (like in 1987 and 2002).
  • Regardless of the S&P's near-term path, history says we shouldn't under estimate this kickoff rally. Acting on the sentiment-based buy signal at S&P 1,828 provided a low-risk entry point and insurance against a runaway rally.
Link to full article
 http://www.marketwatch.com/story/historic-pattern-says-the-risk-of-a-2016-bear-market-is-zero-2016-02-25

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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