Monday, March 5, 2018

Update: Similarities 1929, 1987, 2018

On February 21,2018 there is a post - charts: Similarities, 1929, 1987, 2018
Since the post on Feb 21st the 3 periods are still very similar.
Today the stock market rallied about 1.37% in the DJIA
So it required a look back at 1929 & 1987 to see if those periods experienced any big rally days from the ATH made and before the waterfall slide into the crash day.

Before reading the data below, it would be insightful to first take a look at the charts in the February 21st post.
If you need it, here is the link
https://justsignals.blogspot.com/2018/02/charts-similarities-1929-1987-2018.html

So, now look at the findings below.

1987
Between the high on 8/25/1987 and the lower high on 10/2/1987, before the water fall slide into the crash day, there were several big rally days just like the one we had today and some bigger.

8/31/87   +0.89%
9/10/87   +1.05%
9/11/87   +1.27%
9/22/87   +3.02% *To try and convince the Bulls that this is not a Bear market
9/28/87   +1.22%
10/1/87   +1.65% - The day before the lower high made on 10/2/87 and before the water fall slide into the crash day

After 10/2/87

10/13/87   +1.49%

Then:

10/14/87    -3.81%
10/15/87    -2.39%
10/16/87    -4.60%
10/19/87  -22.61%   Black Monday

1929
Between the high on 9/3/1929 and the lower high on 10/11/1929, before the water fall slide into the crash day, there were several big rally days just like the one we had today and some bigger.

9/6/29      +1.76%
9/11/29    +0.98%
9/16/29    +1.50%
9/26/29    +0.94%
10/7/29    +6.30% *To try and convince the Bulls that this is not a Bear market
10/10/29  +1.79% - The day before the lower high made on 10/2/87 and before the water fall slide

After 10/11/29

10/17/29   +1.73%
10/22/29   +1.75%

Then:

10/23/29   -6.31%
10/24/29   -2.09% Black Thursday with big intra-day low
10/25/29   +0.57%
10/28/29  -13.48%
10/29/29  -11.70% Black Tuesday

Comments
8/25/87 to 10/2/87 is 27 TD (trading days)
9/3/29 to 10/11/29 is 28 TD

"IF" 2018 is similar to 1929 & 1987, and it may be and it may not be, then 28 TD from the ATH on 1/26/2018 is 3/8/2018.   This date would represent "the lower high before the water fall slide into the crash day".   So 3/8/2018 would compare to 10/2/1987 & 10/11/1929, "IF" and only "IF" the 2018  pattern continues to be similar to 1929 & 1987.

1-It may continue to be similar
2-It may only be a shallow correction and not a crash
3-It may stop it's similarity and do something else

Keep an eye on it!

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.



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