The following are excerpts
from posts on my blog (JustSignals.blogspot.com)
Wednesday, February 8,2017
Picasso Cycle
Dates
Long term indicators appear positive, so far. Negative
divergence on many indicators have been broken very late last year and so they now suggest further
upside. So, if small pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle dates and
daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
In addition, LT cycles
suggest a high April +/-, low August +/- & high November +/-.
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional
investment advisors analysis.
Wednesday, November 8,2017
Picasso Cycle Update
Long term indicators appear positive, so far. Negative
divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now
suggest further upside. So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle
date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying
opportunity.
So far this forecast came to pass. The August
low was accurate.
In addition, the LT cycles suggested a low in
August +/-, (which we had), & a high in late November/early December +/-.
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your indicators and or your
professional investment advisors analysis.
The LT Cycle low suggested for August was
shallow. The DJIA high was 22,179 and the DJIA low was 21,600.
This was a 2.6% correction. Not much, but, it was a correction as
forecasted nevertheless.
Wednesday, March 29,2017
Zweig Breadth Thrust
According to Dr. Zweig, there have
only been fourteen Breadth Thrusts since 1945 (as
of the date of the original printing of this article ???). The
average gain following these fourteen Thrusts was 24.6% in an average
time-frame of eleven months. Dr. Zweig also points out that most bull markets
begin with a Breadth Thrust.
The last ZBT that we noted, occurred starting
Nov 8,2016.
If we apply the
the average gain of 24.6% to the average length of 11 months we get:
DJIA Nov.
2016 18,000 --->22,500 forecast 11 months later in
Oct.2017
S&P500 Nov. 2016 2,100
---> 2.625 forecast 11 months later in Oct.2017
Will the stock market possibly continue straight up until Oct, 2017? We
doubt it. In fact, the LT Picasso Cycle dates suggest an April high +/-,
an August low +/- and then a Nov high +/-. This last high in Nov is very
close to the ZBT average forecast high in Oct. 2017.
Friday November 10,2017 Peter Eliades was on FBN
Peter has a stock market newsletter
called StockMarket Cycles. He was
discussing an indicator he discovered in 1992 that he calls, “Sign of the Bear”. In short, there have been 8 occurrences in
the past 88 years. Subsequent to these dates the stock market has fallen as
follows.
July 19,1929 -89%
December 8,1961 -29% January 25,1966 -26.5%
October 17,1968 -36.9%
December 6,1972 -46.5%
April 6,1998 -21% September 15,2000 -32%
July 10, 2001 -27%
Now, why is this
important? Because another event just
occurred on October 25,2017.
Excerpts from articles on Peter Eliades, Sign of the Bear
There is, of course, the chance that
the pattern this time around could be a non-event.
Remember, the ending of the pattern
usually precedes the final market high; it does not usually coincide with or
follow the market top.
What precautions can investors take now? For
starters, they should decide exactly how much pain they are willing to abide if
the market should turn sharply lower. While a decline of 10 to 15 percent
should not alarm true long-term investors, they must always be on their guard
against the 40-80 percent declines that tend to occur every few generations,
says Eliades.
A stop-loss can ensure that one exits safely
ahead of the Big One. "Decide now where you would sell a stock or mutual
fund and still not be badly hurt," advises Eliades. "This should
usually be about 12 to 15 percent below current levels or recent portfolio
highs."
Stick to your plan, he admonishes, and
monitor your portfolio closely so that you can raise your bail-out price as the
market advances. "The risk is that you might sell out at lows just before
stocks go up again," he says, "but the insurance is well worth it,
since you will be protected against catastrophic declines."
The WSJ
By Simon Constable
Nov. 3, 2013
The Second Year of the Four Year Presidential Cycle
Tomorrow, as you cast a vote,
you might also gird yourself for rocky markets ahead, especially during the
first nine months of 2014. How so? The
second year of a presidential term is traditionally a period of subpar stock
performance. The "presidential stock
market cycle" says that stocks perform better or worse depending on the
year of the president's term. The second
year is the worst, and the third is the best, on average. Specifically, since 1945, the second year of
a president's term saw the S&P 500 gain 5.3% in price on average, versus
16.1% in the third, according to an analysis by S&P Capital IQ. No distinction is made between a president's
first or second term. The clock simply
starts over.
Of course, the figures are averages,
so not all years follow the cycle in lock step. Still, the third year sees the
index gain 88% of the time; the second year, only 59%. The
second-year subpar performance is actually even worse for the first nine months
of the year; losses average 0.5% then. Why
is that second year so bad? Because that
is when the U.S. economy gets less attention from ruling-party politicians,
says Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ, in New York. Mr. Stovall likens the second year to
"sophomore slump. "By
contrast, "the third year, the year before the election, investors
anticipate that the party in power wants to stay in power, so they try to boost
the economy," he says. That stimulus tends to carry over into the last, or
lame-duck, year. Then, in the first
year, the president and the economy tend to get the benefit of the
"honeymoon period. "This is no
new phenomenon. A 1992 analysis
published in the Financial Analysts Journal compared the Dow Jones Industrial
Average and the cycle from 1901 through 1990. That data also showed second years were
subpar and third years best.
Mr. Constable is host of WSJ Live's News
Hub show, on WSJ.com. Email him at simon.constable@wsj.com.
· The above excerpts suggest a possible near term high
in the stock market and then a possible low and or weakness in 2018.
· As always, watch your indicators, do your own work and
consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This
has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and
consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
