Glenn Neely from NEoWave

The following email was sent recently from Glenn Neely of NEoWave, Inc.
It is one persons opinion, so JustSignals is providing charts of each of these dates, below along with a few comments.

By Glenn Neely:
In the last 35-years, there have been ONLY 4 occasions when I was certain a stock market crash was coming – they were the high in 1987, the high in 2000 (the internet bubble), the end of the real estate boom in early 2008 and the high made August 2015. In ALL cases, a massive decline followed.

At this time, based on all the things I know about the U.S. stock market (current Wave structure implications, U.S. margin debt, insider traders selling stock, overbought warnings from my Moat Index, a rising interest rate environment and the volume of new accounts being opened at brokerage firms in 2017 around the country), THIS is the FIRST TIME since August 2015 that I'm VERY concerned a "Stock Market Crash" is just 1-3 months away.

The two ingredients currently missing from the typical setup for a major market top is volatility (which is normally high at major tops and bottoms) and widespread media coverage. With those two elements absent, the S&P might need to undergo a violent "blow off" in the next 1-2 months. Such behavior will increase volatility and definitely get the attention of the main stream media.

Whether the S&P soars to new highs over the next 1-2 months and volatility increases OR the S&P simply sells off and begins a violent decline from a lower high, the odds are EXTREMELY HIGH - in the next 1-3 months - that the U.S. stock market will experience its largest, fastest decline in 10 years! That violent drop will be the start of a 2-4 year bear market that retraces at least 50% of the 2009-2017 bull market. If you look at the attached long-term (6-monthly) chart, you can see my best guess at Wave structure back to 2000's high and the S&P current position and what I expect (the red-dashed line). Keep in mind, a "blow off" advance of 5-10% might occur this month or next BEFORE the crash begins. Either way, I'm fairly confident a multi-year bear market will begin in 2017.

We can only guess what might instigate the next bear market but many possibilities exist. The Fed continuing to raise interest rates historically is enough. The tensions between North Korea, China, the U.S. and Russia is another factor. Massive borrowing by U.S. corporations to buy their own stock, which will eventually have to be paid back, is another concern. Eventually, the cause of the bear market will be decided but, in the mean time, you should prepare.

To help you navigate the coming bear market, we are offering a 25% discount on all NEoWave Trading and Forecasting services. To receive your discount, please contact  Magelan@neowave.com 

Sincerely,
Glenn Neely
NEoWave, Inc.
Email: magelan@neowave.com

The following charts & comments are provided by JustSignals

1987 daily DJIA - Courtesy of Worden Bros.

2000 weekly SPY - Courtesy of eSignal

2008 weekly SPY - Courtesy of eSignal

2015, 2016, 2017 weekly SPY - Courtesy of eSignal

The charts above are from each date that Glenn Neely mentioned. 
In each of these charts for each date Glenn Neely mentioned, there were warning signs before the correction.  If you look carefully at the current period in the last chart, there aren't any similar warning signs appearing yet.  Although there are some recent posts here that do suggest some weakness developing in the stock market.

Glenn Neely is a respected market technician with many innovative tools that have made many good calls in the stock market and since he said "THIS is the FIRST TIME since August 2015 that I'm VERY concerned a "Stock Market Crash" is just 1-3 months away",  this will be watched very carefully !!! 

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