AAII Bullish %

Dr. Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD., Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33418, and writer of the market newsletter, UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE,  once wrote that the stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25.

Recent dates when the AAII Bullish % was less than 25.00
June 9,2011    24.40  - Sell off into Aug 2011 before continuing higher
May 16,2012  23.60  - Market continued higher
July 18,2012   22.20  - Market continued higher
April 10,2013 19.30  - Market continued higher
June 10,2015  20.00  - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 5 months later
July 1,2015     22.60  - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 4 months later
July 29,2015   21.10  - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 3 months later
Aug 5,2015     24.30  - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 3 months later
Dec 16,2015   23.90  - Sell off into Jan 2016, but higher level 4-6 months later
May 4,2016    22.30  - Market continued higher
Sep 21,2016   24.83  - Market continued higher
*May 17,2017  23.90  - ???

Bullish %'s below 25.00% suggests that the market may rally 3-6 months out.  If Aubie Baltin is correct again, then it certainly agrees with the suggestions of the Picasso Long Term Cycles of a August low (*May plus 3 months) and a November high (*May plus 6 months).

JustSignals posts for the Long Term Cycles have been suggesting:
Long term indicators appear positive, so far.  Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside.  So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
In addition, the LT cycles appear to have shifted.  The LT cycles now suggest a high around April-June +/-, a low in August +/- & a high in November +/-. 
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.
 
*Also note that a change in trend took place in the month of August in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016.  Will it happen again in 2017 as Picasso Long Term Cycles suggest?


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