Time to Take Profits - UBS

Time to take profits - UBS

Mar 24 2016, 06:06 ET | By: SA Eli Hoffmann, SA News Editor

UBS technicians Michael Riesner and Marc Muller, who called both of the most recent selloffs, are out with a note telling clients to take profits on the S&P 500:

"Last week, we saw the suggested overshooting into expiration and the SPX reached the upper end of our projected late Q1/early Q2 target at 2050, which leaves the short-term picture in the U.S. unchanged as to what we highlighted last week. With the rally of the last few weeks and looking at our daily trend work, the SPX has reached its most overbought position since 2009!! Together with significant non-confirmations in our medium-term momentum work, and trading in the time window of our late Q1/early Q2 top projection, we see the market vulnerable for a significant reversal this week, which we would see as the beginning of a tactical top building process and subsequent correction into deeper Q2. We reiterate our last week’s comment and would not chase the market on current elevated levels.

"After being aggressively oversold, we saw the February 11th risk bottom as the basis for a multi-week bear market rally in global equities into the late March/early April timeframe with a price target 2000/2050 in the SPX before starting a new significant tactical down leg into deeper summer. Last week, we said that a final overshooting into expiration is still likely, but particularly in the week after triple witching we very often see important tactical trend reversals in the market.

"The February/March rebound was nearly vertical, which is not sustainable. With last week’s extension our daily trend work has reached its most overbought position since 2009. Together with our weekly momentum reaching overbought extremes we have a relatively high likelihood of seeing the market move into an important medium-term top followed by a significant setback. Even if our big picture market view (U.S. and global equity markets are in a cyclical bear market that we expect to continue into Q1 2017) proves to be too bearish, with such an indicator setup we should see the US market minimum ahead of a multi-week consolidation pattern, where we should see higher volatility and therefore a significant pullback."

The following charts were taken from the last article on this blog

By UBS technicians Michael Riesner and Marc Mulle

Link to that article

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-03-23/one-most-accurate-forecasters-2016-sp-most-overbought-2009-sell

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