Let's review 2016 again

In prior posts there were discussions about:

1) The intermediate cycles have been looking for a market correction in the first half of 2016.
2) The pattern of the Average Election Years, see chart below.
3) The final year of a two term Presidency.  In 5 of the last 6 times, the DJIA dropped an average of 13.9%.  See a new chart below that is a composite of the last year of two term Presidents over the last 100 years. FDR served for 3 terms so the 8th & 12th years were used in this chart.  Some changes in trend dates were noted on the chart and they happen to be close to the actual turn dates so far in 2016,  Take a look for yourself.

Observation:
Note that in both of these charts the first six months are pretty much in sync.  The last six months trend in opposite directions.

On March 4,2016 in the post, 2016 Bear or Bull?, it discussed the 3-4 day kickoff, escape thrust, and the subsequent 12 months.  The market was up 12 months later, in each of these times, but, in some years the market tested the lows that were made right before the 3-4 day kick off.  So based on the 2 charts above it is possible that the February2016 low may be tested.  What happens after that and in the second half of this year will be up to Mr. Market and for all of us to monitor very carefully.  More on this as it unfolds. 





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