Precious Metals Comments

To review...
After large January 2011 redemptions in this PM mutual fund..the fund dropped to about $125mil from about $250mil...the price of GLD bottomed a couple of days later at 127.80 and today it closed at 137.51...
So the fund was sold at the wrong time...

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

New Intraday Signal

A new sell signal today...

Trend Following signals will get us on the right side most of the time so we do not have to guess where the market is going, because, we know that the market is going to do whatever it wants to do whenever it wants to do it...
We keep our emotions out of our decision making process when using Trend Following signals...




Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Precious Metals Comments

Silver traded close to a 30 year new high this week...
For those of you who want to trade both gold and silver but are undecided how to allocate your position to each one, you can buy the CEF...I believe CEF allocates 2/3 to gold and 1/3 to silver...So you can get the best of both worlds...
The GLD ETF was up +.37 Friday and the daily price chart still looks like an ascending wedge...
Soon we will see how it breaks out of that pattern...

Past performance is not indicative of future results...

TNA Signals

Nothing new here...Still on the last buy signal from Feb 1,2011...
TNA was 75.32 back then and it closed at 86.45 on Friday Feb 18,2011...
Not bad for Trend Following signals...

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Precious Metals Comments

 

Turquiose = Precious Metals

In the Feb 15th chart you will see that the PM turq line is starting to turn up with a steeper slope than the past three times after big redemptions...On today's chart above you can see a sharper rise in investor/trader buying of this Precious Metals mutual fund...The markets usually advance while leaving most traders behind...Most investors/traders buy and sell at the wrong times...Why are investor/traders buying into the PM mutual fund now?
To review, after the large redemptions in this PM mutual fund the price of GLD bottomed a couple of days later at 127.80 and today it closed at 135.04...So the fund was sold at the wrong time...
The daily price chart of GLD is overbought and the chart pattern looks like an ascending wedge, while the weekly price chart of GLD is oversold...Wouldn't mind seeing the price of GLD break out of the apex of the ascending wedge to the down side and get over sold one more time...

Let's wait and see...

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Solar Flares

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/programmes/newsnight/9020059.stm

The sun has an 11 year activity cycle that is due again in the 2012-2013 time period...
The Mayan Calendar ends on Dec 21, 2012...
Mmmmmm

Precious Metals Comment

In the post of Feb 16th you will see that the PM turq line is starting to turn up with a steeper slope than the past three times after big redemptions...This indicates investor buying of this PM mutual fund...The markets usually advance while leaving most traders behind...Why are investor/traders buying into the PM mutual fund now?  
May be we did not see the bottom in PM yet?   Let's wait and see...

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Precious Metals Market Update...Gold

Here is the current chart as of Feb 15,2011...

This chart starts at March 2009...
Turquoise = Precious Metals Mutual Fund...(Don't pay attention to the arrow in this chart)

A great note for all markets... "The bull market does what it's supposed to do - advance while leaving most traders and Johnny-come-latelies behind."          

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Precious Metals....OB/OS Update

From the January 24,2011  post

On Jan 27th GLD hit a low of 127.80 and today at noon it is selling at 133.30.


Comments from the January 24,2011 post:

This chart starts at March 2009...
Turquoise = precious metals mutual fund...note that after investors sharp redemption's, a bottom in the price of gold formed (this chart does not have the price chart for gold...please compare this chart to a gold chart and match up the dates)...It is easier to spot bottoms than tops...
Again there were a lot of redemption's in this Precious Metals mutual fund...

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Long Term Cycles, Depressions and Stock Market Bottoms - Part I

Read more about the above chart at...http://www.smithers.co.uk/page.php?id=34

q and CAPE charts... indicate an oversold and or undervalued market...So when will this chart become oversold and or undervalued again?

A full cycle between lows (1932-1848ish=84yrs) a half cycle of 84yrs would be 42yrs...This is the same difference between the following lows (1974-1932=42yrs)...
So...applying a full cycle of 84 yrs...1848ish+84=1932+84=2016 suggests the year of a possible bottom...
Applying a half cycle from the last major bottom...1974+42=2016 suggests the year of a possible bottom...
Applying the nominal 40yr cycle from the last major bottom...1974+40=2014 which suggests another year of a possible bottom...
Or will there be a bottom in both 2014 and 2016?
That is a very good possibility with a flat to up market during 2015...since this has been the story with every 5th year of a decade for the last 100 years...
Approximate long term cycle lengths may be explained as outer planetary cycles...which are also forecasting bottoms in the years 2014 and 2016...

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SuperBowl Stock Market Indicator

I saw this indicator first introduced by Louis Rukeyser on Wall $treet Week years ago...

What Does Super Bowl Indicator Mean?
An indicator based on the belief that a Super Bowl win for a team from the old AFL (AFC division) foretells a decline in the stock market for the coming year, and that a win for a team from the old NFL (NFC division) means the stock market will be up for the year.

Investopedia explains Super Bowl Indicator
Chalk it up to coincidence, but this indicator has been surprisingly accurate (around 85% correct) over the past years. Even so, you probably shouldn't bet the farm on it.

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/superbowlindicator.asp

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

2008 Moon Chart to Forecast the Stock Market...S&P500

Kept experimenting to see if there is any correlation between the S&P500 and Lunar events...
Came up with this chart...Will see if this relationship continues in other years...If it does other charts will be posted as well...
 "History does not repeat itself, but it does rhyme." - Mark Twain

TNA...New Intraday Signal Today

A new signal today...are we getting whip sawed in a trading range or are we breaking out to the upside?
Trend Following signals will get us on the right side most of the time so we do not have to guess where the market is going, because, we know that the market is going to do whatever it wants to do whenever it wants to do it...
We keep our emotions out of our decision making process when using Trend Following signals...


Past performance is not indicative of future results.