Picasso is not displaying any swings going forward for the DJIA. So it is not easy to interpret a near flat line with an upward bias. But, GE is the only stock left in the Dow30 that is one of the original DJIA stocks. Although the price charts of GE & the DJIA are not similar, their changes in trend have been similar in the past. Due to this similar trend between GE & the DJIA, it is best that Picasso's readings for GE be used temporarily as a proxy for the DJIA. So here are those results.
Picasso's dates
2/22H
2/25-28L
3/1-2H
3/15L
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This
has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and
consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Sunday, February 21, 2016
Thursday, February 18, 2016
RYNVX another extreme reading
Last posted on January 19,2016
Updates in BLUE - RYNVX inched closer to another extreme reading
RYFXX - Rydex US Government Money Market
RYNVX - Rydex Nova Fund Investor Class (Long Fund)
RYURX - Rydex Inverse S&P 500® Strategy Fund Investor Class (Inverse Fund)
RYFXX 3-10-09 $1,367Mil 3-10-15 $655Mil 9-9-15 $1,434Mil
9-14-15 $1,451Mil
10-26-15 $862Mil
RYNVX 3-11-09 $22Mil 5-14-15 $177Mil 9-4-15 $53Mil
9-14-15 $52Mil
10-26-15 $140Mil
11/27/15 $182Mil
12/10/15 $187Mil
12/29/15 $189Mil
1/15/16 $51Mil
Updates in BLUE - RYNVX inched closer to another extreme reading
RYFXX - Rydex US Government Money Market
RYNVX - Rydex Nova Fund Investor Class (Long Fund)
RYURX - Rydex Inverse S&P 500® Strategy Fund Investor Class (Inverse Fund)
RYFXX 3-10-09 $1,367Mil 3-10-15 $655Mil 9-9-15 $1,434Mil
9-14-15 $1,451Mil
10-26-15 $862Mil
RYNVX 3-11-09 $22Mil 5-14-15 $177Mil 9-4-15 $53Mil
9-14-15 $52Mil
10-26-15 $140Mil
11/27/15 $182Mil
12/10/15 $187Mil
12/29/15 $189Mil
1/15/16 $51Mil
1/19/16 $37Mil
2/18/16 $37Mil
RYURX 3-9-09 $353Mil 5-4-15 $58.34Mil 9-9-15 $148Mil
9-14-15 $172Mil
10-26-15 $117Mil
Note The RYNVX is now near another potential extreme. It is currently at $37Mil again which is $152Mil less than the $189Mil recorded on 12/29/15 before the January & February market correction and only $15Mil more than the $22Mil recorded on 3/11/09...
***Also note that it is currently at the same $37Mil that was also recorded on 1/19/16 at the January low....
*If this maybe a hint that a turn in the market is near and it turns out to be correct, we then understand why the Buying Pressure chart has been giving another positive divergence indication. Looking for a buildup of more evidence.
This low dollar amount in the RYNVX long fund displays fear in the market...
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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
2/18/16 $37Mil
RYURX 3-9-09 $353Mil 5-4-15 $58.34Mil 9-9-15 $148Mil
9-14-15 $172Mil
10-26-15 $117Mil
Note The RYNVX is now near another potential extreme. It is currently at $37Mil again which is $152Mil less than the $189Mil recorded on 12/29/15 before the January & February market correction and only $15Mil more than the $22Mil recorded on 3/11/09...
***Also note that it is currently at the same $37Mil that was also recorded on 1/19/16 at the January low....
*If this maybe a hint that a turn in the market is near and it turns out to be correct, we then understand why the Buying Pressure chart has been giving another positive divergence indication. Looking for a buildup of more evidence.
This low dollar amount in the RYNVX long fund displays fear in the market...
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Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Wednesday, February 17, 2016
Stanley Druckenmiller
The Greatest Money Manager Alive Attributes The Majority His Success To Just This One Thing
The Felder Report
Link to article
https://www.thefelderreport.com/2016/01/07/the-greatest-money-manager-alive-attributes-the-majority-his-success-to-just-this-one-thing/
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
Saturday, February 13, 2016
Marty Zweig can still teach us now
NOTE: Interesting that the last post was on the Inverted Yield Curve.
You will understand when you read this article.
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — Last week came the sad news that Martin Zweig had died at the absurdly young age of 70.
Many tributes to him (which included an insightful commentary by Mark Hulbert in MarketWatch) recalled his memorable appearance on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser on Fri., Oct. 16, 1987 where he warned of a stock market crash. It happened the following Monday, and Zweig’s reputation as a forecaster was sealed.
Read Hulbert’s commentary on Martin Zweig.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-tribute-to-zweigs-many-contributions-2013-02-19
You can watch the video here, starting about six minutes in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MyToTwag34
Still, that understates his importance. A numbers wizard (he got a PhD in finance from Michigan State), Zweig saw patterns in the market no one else could. His newsletter, The Zweig Forecast, had a stellar track record, according to Hulbert, and he ran a successful hedge fund with his business partner Joseph DiMenna. Zweig, who famously purchased a multistory penthouse apartment in New York City’s Pierre Hotel for a record $21.5 million in 1999, had a net worth estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
But he also had a simple philosophy that can help ordinary people navigate even the most treacherous markets. By sticking to it, investors can participate in the upside while limiting downside risk. Many people claim to have done that, but Zweig actually did.
I interviewed him back in the late 1980s as a much-younger reporter at a small, feisty business paper in Miami, where he spent some of his formative years. He didn’t give many interviews (and none I could find recently), but he was gracious and his passion for investing was evident. I recently re-read his first book, “Winning on Wall Street,” originally published in 1986. The many statistics are dated, but the insights are timeless.
Zweig’s nostrums are well known — “Don’t fight the Fed,” “don’t fight the tape” — but they shouldn’t be taken for granted. Used correctly, they’re a recipe for making money and reducing risk.
‘Don’t fight the Fed’
“Monetary conditions exert an enormous influence on stock prices,” he wrote in “Winning on Wall Street.”
“Indeed, the monetary climate—primarily the trend in interest rates and Federal Reserve policy—is the dominant factor in determining the stock market’s major direction.”
“Generally a rising trend in rates is bearish for stocks; a falling trend is bullish,” he continued.
Why? For two reasons. “First, falling interest rates reduce the competition on stocks from other investments, especially short-term instruments such as Treasury bills, certificates of deposit, or money market funds,” he wrote.
“Second, when interest rates fall, it costs corporations less to borrow. As expenses fall, profits rise…So, as interest rates drop, investors tend to bid prices higher, partly on the expectation of better earnings.”
Isn’t that exactly what’s happened now? After resisting for years while the Fed drove real short-term interest rates below zero, investors have jumped back into US stock mutual funds and ETFs.
Read Gold’s analysis of why investors are buying ETFs but not stocks on MoneyShow.com.
And companies have zealously controlled their expenses and have refinanced every bit of debt they could at rock-bottom rates. No wonder corporate profits are at their highest percentage of GDP in more than 60 years.
Zweig advised investors not to go all in or out, but to keep a position in stocks and increase it when the risk was low while reducing it when the risk was high. “What you are concerned with is the probability of success or, alternatively, the probability of losing money. You want to avoid loss. So, it’s fine to buy above the bottom and to sell below the top,” he wrote.
How do we know if we’re near a top? Start with the Fed, of course. When rates are low, as they are now, the second of two rate hikes or a one-percentage-point increase in the prime rate would trigger a Zweig sell signal.
Would the end of “quantitative easing” constitute a rate hike? Good question, but I doubt it. That means we probably don’t have to worry about a monetary sell signal until at least 2014.
Zweig found that every bear market from 1919 to 1982 had at least one of three conditions: extreme deflation; “ultrahigh” price/earnings ratios in the upper teens and twenties, or an inverted yield curve, where short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates.
Seen any of those lately? Not in this galaxy.
We live in confusing times — slow economic growth, the aftermath of a major financial crisis, ballooning national debt and the loosest monetary policy the Fed has ever pursued. But that loose policy has staved off deflation and the inverted yield curve that often precedes recessions — two of Zweig’s critical indicators for bear markets.
Far too many investors have been paralyzed by fear during the current four-year bull market, while the key signs that Zweig and others (like Jim Stack) look at have been persistently bullish.
And too many people have stayed away because they were afraid of fiscal cliffs or sequesters or Europe or were philosophically opposed to the Fed’s easy money policy.
That’s fine — I don’t like the Fed’s policy, either. But when the Federal Reserve — in Zweig’s words, “the dominant factor in determining the market’s major direction” — is giving away stock market profits, do you really want to sit on the sidelines out of principle? That’s crazy.
Marty Zweig believed that flexibility was the most important trait of successful investors — their ability to apply core precepts to fluid markets and change their minds when conditions warranted. It’s a shame this great thinker is no longer with us, but he left a road map of how it can be done, if only we focused on the right things.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
You will understand when you read this article.
What Marty Zweig can teach us now
Many tributes to him (which included an insightful commentary by Mark Hulbert in MarketWatch) recalled his memorable appearance on Wall Street Week with Louis Rukeyser on Fri., Oct. 16, 1987 where he warned of a stock market crash. It happened the following Monday, and Zweig’s reputation as a forecaster was sealed.
Read Hulbert’s commentary on Martin Zweig.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-tribute-to-zweigs-many-contributions-2013-02-19
You can watch the video here, starting about six minutes in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2MyToTwag34
Still, that understates his importance. A numbers wizard (he got a PhD in finance from Michigan State), Zweig saw patterns in the market no one else could. His newsletter, The Zweig Forecast, had a stellar track record, according to Hulbert, and he ran a successful hedge fund with his business partner Joseph DiMenna. Zweig, who famously purchased a multistory penthouse apartment in New York City’s Pierre Hotel for a record $21.5 million in 1999, had a net worth estimated in the hundreds of millions of dollars.
But he also had a simple philosophy that can help ordinary people navigate even the most treacherous markets. By sticking to it, investors can participate in the upside while limiting downside risk. Many people claim to have done that, but Zweig actually did.
I interviewed him back in the late 1980s as a much-younger reporter at a small, feisty business paper in Miami, where he spent some of his formative years. He didn’t give many interviews (and none I could find recently), but he was gracious and his passion for investing was evident. I recently re-read his first book, “Winning on Wall Street,” originally published in 1986. The many statistics are dated, but the insights are timeless.
Zweig’s nostrums are well known — “Don’t fight the Fed,” “don’t fight the tape” — but they shouldn’t be taken for granted. Used correctly, they’re a recipe for making money and reducing risk.
‘Don’t fight the Fed’
“Monetary conditions exert an enormous influence on stock prices,” he wrote in “Winning on Wall Street.”
“Indeed, the monetary climate—primarily the trend in interest rates and Federal Reserve policy—is the dominant factor in determining the stock market’s major direction.”
“Generally a rising trend in rates is bearish for stocks; a falling trend is bullish,” he continued.
Why? For two reasons. “First, falling interest rates reduce the competition on stocks from other investments, especially short-term instruments such as Treasury bills, certificates of deposit, or money market funds,” he wrote.
“Second, when interest rates fall, it costs corporations less to borrow. As expenses fall, profits rise…So, as interest rates drop, investors tend to bid prices higher, partly on the expectation of better earnings.”
Isn’t that exactly what’s happened now? After resisting for years while the Fed drove real short-term interest rates below zero, investors have jumped back into US stock mutual funds and ETFs.
Read Gold’s analysis of why investors are buying ETFs but not stocks on MoneyShow.com.
And companies have zealously controlled their expenses and have refinanced every bit of debt they could at rock-bottom rates. No wonder corporate profits are at their highest percentage of GDP in more than 60 years.
‘Don’t fight the tape’
“Big money is made in the stock market by being on the right side of the major moves,” he wrote. “The idea is to get in harmony with the market. It’s suicidal to fight trends. They have a higher probability of continuing than not…Strong momentum tends to persist…Fighting the tape is an open invitation to disaster.”Zweig advised investors not to go all in or out, but to keep a position in stocks and increase it when the risk was low while reducing it when the risk was high. “What you are concerned with is the probability of success or, alternatively, the probability of losing money. You want to avoid loss. So, it’s fine to buy above the bottom and to sell below the top,” he wrote.
How do we know if we’re near a top? Start with the Fed, of course. When rates are low, as they are now, the second of two rate hikes or a one-percentage-point increase in the prime rate would trigger a Zweig sell signal.
Would the end of “quantitative easing” constitute a rate hike? Good question, but I doubt it. That means we probably don’t have to worry about a monetary sell signal until at least 2014.
Zweig found that every bear market from 1919 to 1982 had at least one of three conditions: extreme deflation; “ultrahigh” price/earnings ratios in the upper teens and twenties, or an inverted yield curve, where short-term interest rates exceed long-term rates.
Seen any of those lately? Not in this galaxy.
We live in confusing times — slow economic growth, the aftermath of a major financial crisis, ballooning national debt and the loosest monetary policy the Fed has ever pursued. But that loose policy has staved off deflation and the inverted yield curve that often precedes recessions — two of Zweig’s critical indicators for bear markets.
Far too many investors have been paralyzed by fear during the current four-year bull market, while the key signs that Zweig and others (like Jim Stack) look at have been persistently bullish.
And too many people have stayed away because they were afraid of fiscal cliffs or sequesters or Europe or were philosophically opposed to the Fed’s easy money policy.
That’s fine — I don’t like the Fed’s policy, either. But when the Federal Reserve — in Zweig’s words, “the dominant factor in determining the market’s major direction” — is giving away stock market profits, do you really want to sit on the sidelines out of principle? That’s crazy.
Marty Zweig believed that flexibility was the most important trait of successful investors — their ability to apply core precepts to fluid markets and change their minds when conditions warranted. It’s a shame this great thinker is no longer with us, but he left a road map of how it can be done, if only we focused on the right things.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
Friday, February 12, 2016
Inverted Yield Curve
What is an inverted yield curve?
Simply put, the yield curve shows the
relationship between short-term interest rates and those for longer-term
debt. Typically, investors demand higher rates for the increased risk
of holding bonds or other debt instruments for longer periods, which
means the yield curve slopes upward.
Wednesday, February 10, 2016
GLD chart
 |
| Courtesy of eSignal |
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
SPY chart update
The following chart of SPY was prepared on Feb 5,2016.
Note the Comments on the chart.
The following chart of SPY was updated today once a similar pattern in the chart above appeared to be repeating again.
As you can see the price pattern in the Feb 5th chart appears to be repeating in today's chart.
There are no guarantees that it will turn out the same way, but, it might. So watch it carefully.
For additional information see the following charts of the DIA and the SPY using ChaikinAnalytics.com
Note the similar patterns that are developing in these two charts. One might expect that the OB/OS indicator may drift lower into the empty green circle on the bottom right of each chart. If the pattern does repeat itself, this should happen late this week or early to mid week, next week.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
Note the Comments on the chart.
 |
| Courtesy of eSignal |
 |
| Courtesy of eSignal |
There are no guarantees that it will turn out the same way, but, it might. So watch it carefully.
For additional information see the following charts of the DIA and the SPY using ChaikinAnalytics.com
 |
| Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com |
 |
| Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com |
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
Tuesday, February 9, 2016
CoCos
Courtesy of Bloomberg QuickTake
It’s a high-yield investment with a hand grenade attached. A security carried gingerly with the hope that it won’t explode, leaving investors in a hole. Welcome to a class of securities that’s all the rage in Europe: contingent convertibles, also known as CoCo bonds. A cross between a bond and a stock, a new type of CoCo is helping banks bolster capital to meet tougher regulation designed to prevent a repeat of the taxpayer bailouts of the financial crisis. Many investors are skeptical that the extra yield they offer really reflects the dangers of a blowup – no one really knows how bad the fallout would be because the trigger has never been pulled. While CoCos are supposed to make financial markets safer, there’s a question about whether regulators may have unwittingly created new and untested risks.
Link to the full article
bv.ms/1FvseYi
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
It’s a high-yield investment with a hand grenade attached. A security carried gingerly with the hope that it won’t explode, leaving investors in a hole. Welcome to a class of securities that’s all the rage in Europe: contingent convertibles, also known as CoCo bonds. A cross between a bond and a stock, a new type of CoCo is helping banks bolster capital to meet tougher regulation designed to prevent a repeat of the taxpayer bailouts of the financial crisis. Many investors are skeptical that the extra yield they offer really reflects the dangers of a blowup – no one really knows how bad the fallout would be because the trigger has never been pulled. While CoCos are supposed to make financial markets safer, there’s a question about whether regulators may have unwittingly created new and untested risks.
Link to the full article
bv.ms/1FvseYi
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
Friday, February 5, 2016
charts: DIA, QQQ, SPY, IWM
Note the yellow highlighted areas on each of the following charts. Similar patterns were highlighted.
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme" - Mark Twain
The stock indices are short term overbought and so are many stocks. On the January 20th bottom many indicators were in oversold areas indicating a bottom. At this point the short term is OB and the intermediate term is OS. If you saw the post on "SPY Chart Discussion" it is possible that the 1/20 bottom may be tested and probably during the dates Picasso suggested. (see Picasso post) But it is not necessary to work off this short term OB current status, but, it would help and be healthy for the intermediate term to then advance from it's OS condition.
If this scenario turns out to be correct, then it will be following the Average Election Years. This chart can be found in a prior posting on this blog.
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"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme" - Mark Twain
 |
| Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com |
 |
| Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com |
 |
| Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com |
 |
| Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com |
If this scenario turns out to be correct, then it will be following the Average Election Years. This chart can be found in a prior posting on this blog.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
Thursday, February 4, 2016
Don't Forget the SuperBowl Indicator
Super Bowl theory of the stock market was originally proposed by New York Times sportswriter
Leonard Koppett in 1978. He simply stated that in 10 out of 11 years,
the direction of the stock market was foretold by the outcome of the
Super Bowl.
Koppett observed that if an old (pre-merger)
NFL team won the Super Bowl, the market closed higher for the year, and
if an old AFL team won, the market closed down for the year.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
SPY chart discussion
The following is a chart of the SPY
 |
| Courtesy of eSignal |
There are multiple things going on and now is probably the best time to discuss them.
Picasso expects a high in the area of 2/6-8 and a low in the area of 2/11-16.
In the chart above you can see that a bearish impulse wave is labeled from the 11/3 high and currently it is trying to complete wave 4. If this wave count is correct, then we should expect wave 5 to form with a drop below the 181.02 low made on 1/20. This scenario including the wave count and the Picasso dates seem to fit well. Now we just have to wait until the blue bars turn red and one bar closes below 185.70 (as of today, this price may change over time). in addition, it would also help to see a crossover of the blue & red lines in the bottom widow.
If this does happen this way, it would also be following the Average Election Year Price Pattern that you can review again on this Blog on Jan 13th. You will then see that the Average Election Year Price Pattern indicates that after a February bottom develops, the market could possibly rally into April +/-. As we get closer to that time frame Picasso will be consulted so the cycle dates can be checked and compared, but, first we have to get through February.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
Picasso Says...
The chart below, nicknamed "Picasso", shows the new forecast cycle dates.
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Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Monday, February 1, 2016
Barron's Confidence Index
 |
| Courtesy of Barron's |
Take a look, a close look. Study this.
There is a message here.
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Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Monday, January 25, 2016
Short Term Cycle Update
The following was posted on January 15&17,2016
Today's comments are in Blue
Short term details:(every date is +/-)
Today's comments are in Blue
Short term details:(every date is +/-)
The DJIA fell into Jan 4th which was one day
after the Sunday Jan 3rd cycle date. The market then tried to rally,
but, made a high on Jan 5th and then continued down into a low on Jan
11th. The DJIA then tried to rally and made a high on Jan 13th then
again resumed it's fall. As this post is being written the DJIA Futures
are down -150.00 points. If this continues on Friday Jan 15th, the possibility for another drop into the next cycle date of Jan 18th - 20th will increase.
The Jan 20th bottom, so far, occurred on a cycle date forecast weeks ago.
The chart below, nicknamed "Picasso", shows the new forecast cycle dates.
The chart above is a suggestion of potential future
moves in the market.
Always use other indicators to CONFIRM the cycles suggested market trend.
Intermediate Cycles suggest some sort
of correction in the first half of this year.
This is still the forecast.
More on both the short term and intermediate term cycles as we get through some of these dates...
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Or Follow By Email by submitting your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This
has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and
consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Thursday, January 21, 2016
Evidence of a Bottom ?
There have been several indications of an over sold market, but, is it a bottom or just a place from which a bounce will occur and then we go lower?
Indicator Review
1) RYNVX - Rydex Nova Fund Investor Class (Long Fund) - This fund hit a high on 12/29/15 of $189Mil and just today hit a low of $36Mil. Tha is a very big swing in a short period of time.
2) The short term cycles have been suggesting a low on Jan 20, 2016 for several weeks
3) The Fear & Greed Index (from 0 to 100) is currently in Extreme Fear territory at "9"
4) % of DJIA Stocks Above 10 DMA is 6.67% out of 100% and over sold
5) ChaikinAnalytics.com charts of the DIA, IWM, QQQ, SPY are all in an over sold area
6) A/D Oscillator is deeply over sold
7) Volume Oscillator is deeply over sold
8) SPY Buying Pressure displays positive divergence
Many of these and other indicators have been looked at currently and historically. Comparisons were made and the weight of evidence suggests that a bounce is likely with another leg down into the mid February period +/-.
On September 4,2015 there was a post calling for a Major Sell Signal. This signal is still in force and nothing has caused it to change. Based on this, rallies should be used to lighten up on stocks that are relatively weaker than the market. For some, raising 100% cash might be in order. Review your tolerance for risk before making any decisions.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email.
Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Indicator Review
1) RYNVX - Rydex Nova Fund Investor Class (Long Fund) - This fund hit a high on 12/29/15 of $189Mil and just today hit a low of $36Mil. Tha is a very big swing in a short period of time.
2) The short term cycles have been suggesting a low on Jan 20, 2016 for several weeks
3) The Fear & Greed Index (from 0 to 100) is currently in Extreme Fear territory at "9"
4) % of DJIA Stocks Above 10 DMA is 6.67% out of 100% and over sold
5) ChaikinAnalytics.com charts of the DIA, IWM, QQQ, SPY are all in an over sold area
6) A/D Oscillator is deeply over sold
7) Volume Oscillator is deeply over sold
8) SPY Buying Pressure displays positive divergence
Many of these and other indicators have been looked at currently and historically. Comparisons were made and the weight of evidence suggests that a bounce is likely with another leg down into the mid February period +/-.
On September 4,2015 there was a post calling for a Major Sell Signal. This signal is still in force and nothing has caused it to change. Based on this, rallies should be used to lighten up on stocks that are relatively weaker than the market. For some, raising 100% cash might be in order. Review your tolerance for risk before making any decisions.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email.
Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Tuesday, January 19, 2016
RYNVX Another Extreme Reading
Last posted on January 17,2016
Updates in BLUE - RYNVX inched closer to another extreme reading
RYFXX - Rydex US Government Money Market
RYNVX - Rydex Nova Fund Investor Class (Long Fund)
RYURX - Rydex Inverse S&P 500® Strategy Fund Investor Class (Inverse Fund)
RYFXX 3-10-09 $1,367Mil 3-10-15 $655Mil 9-9-15 $1,434Mil
9-14-15 $1,451Mil
10-26-15 $862Mil
RYNVX 3-11-09 $22Mil 5-14-15 $177Mil 9-4-15 $53Mil
9-14-15 $52Mil
10-26-15 $140Mil
11/27/15 $182Mil
12/10/15 $187Mil
12/29/15 $189Mil
1/15/16 $51Mil
Updates in BLUE - RYNVX inched closer to another extreme reading
RYFXX - Rydex US Government Money Market
RYNVX - Rydex Nova Fund Investor Class (Long Fund)
RYURX - Rydex Inverse S&P 500® Strategy Fund Investor Class (Inverse Fund)
RYFXX 3-10-09 $1,367Mil 3-10-15 $655Mil 9-9-15 $1,434Mil
9-14-15 $1,451Mil
10-26-15 $862Mil
RYNVX 3-11-09 $22Mil 5-14-15 $177Mil 9-4-15 $53Mil
9-14-15 $52Mil
10-26-15 $140Mil
11/27/15 $182Mil
12/10/15 $187Mil
12/29/15 $189Mil
1/15/16 $51Mil
1/19/16 $37Mil
RYURX 3-9-09 $353Mil 5-4-15 $58.34Mil 9-9-15 $148Mil
9-14-15 $172Mil
10-26-15 $117Mil
Note The RYNVX is now near another potential extreme. It is currently at $37Mil which is $12Mil less than the $49Mil recorded on 9/29/15 on the retest of the 8/24-25/15 low and $15Mil more than the $22Mil recorded on 3/11/09...
*If this hint that a turn in the market is near turns out to be correct, we then understand why the Buying Pressure chart has been giving a positive divergence indication. Looking for a buildup of evidence.
This displays fear in the market...
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Past performance is not indicative of future results
RYURX 3-9-09 $353Mil 5-4-15 $58.34Mil 9-9-15 $148Mil
9-14-15 $172Mil
10-26-15 $117Mil
Note The RYNVX is now near another potential extreme. It is currently at $37Mil which is $12Mil less than the $49Mil recorded on 9/29/15 on the retest of the 8/24-25/15 low and $15Mil more than the $22Mil recorded on 3/11/09...
*If this hint that a turn in the market is near turns out to be correct, we then understand why the Buying Pressure chart has been giving a positive divergence indication. Looking for a buildup of evidence.
This displays fear in the market...
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email.
Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Sunday, January 17, 2016
RYDEX (RYNVX) Decrease in Market Cap
Last posted on December 15,2015
Updates in BLUE - RYNVX inched closer to an extreme reading
RYFXX - Rydex US Government Money Market
RYNVX - Rydex Nova Fund Investor Class (Long Fund)
RYURX - Rydex Inverse S&P 500® Strategy Fund Investor Class (Inverse Fund)
RYFXX 3-10-09 $1,367Mil 3-10-15 $655Mil 9-9-15 $1,434Mil
9-14-15 $1,451Mil
10-26-15 $862Mil
RYNVX 3-11-09 $21.96 Mil 5-14-15 $177Mil 9-4-15 $53Mil
9-14-15 $52Mil
10-26-15 $140Mil
11/27/15 $182Mil
12/10/15 $187Mil
12/29/15 $189Mil
1/15/16 $51Mil
RYURX 3-9-09 $353Mil 5-4-15 $58.34Mil 9-9-15 $148Mil
9-14-15 $172Mil
10-26-15 $117Mil
Note The RYNVX is now near another potential extreme. It is currently at $51Mil which is only $2Mil more than the $49Mil recorded on 9/29/15 on the retest of the 8/24-25/15 low.
*If this hint that a turn in the market is near turns out to be correct, we then understand why the Buying Pressure chart has been giving a positive divergence indication. Looking for a buildup of evidence.
This displays some fear in the market...
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email.
Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Updates in BLUE - RYNVX inched closer to an extreme reading
RYFXX - Rydex US Government Money Market
RYNVX - Rydex Nova Fund Investor Class (Long Fund)
RYURX - Rydex Inverse S&P 500® Strategy Fund Investor Class (Inverse Fund)
RYFXX 3-10-09 $1,367Mil 3-10-15 $655Mil 9-9-15 $1,434Mil
9-14-15 $1,451Mil
10-26-15 $862Mil
RYNVX 3-11-09 $21.96 Mil 5-14-15 $177Mil 9-4-15 $53Mil
9-14-15 $52Mil
10-26-15 $140Mil
11/27/15 $182Mil
12/10/15 $187Mil
12/29/15 $189Mil
1/15/16 $51Mil
RYURX 3-9-09 $353Mil 5-4-15 $58.34Mil 9-9-15 $148Mil
9-14-15 $172Mil
10-26-15 $117Mil
Note The RYNVX is now near another potential extreme. It is currently at $51Mil which is only $2Mil more than the $49Mil recorded on 9/29/15 on the retest of the 8/24-25/15 low.
*If this hint that a turn in the market is near turns out to be correct, we then understand why the Buying Pressure chart has been giving a positive divergence indication. Looking for a buildup of evidence.
This displays some fear in the market...
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email.
Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Friday, January 15, 2016
chart: SPY 4min Signals
 |
| Courtesy of TradeStation.com |
Green circles are buy signals. Two things must happen. You need a cross over in the bottom window or the histogram to be positive and you also need a price bar to close above the cyan MA and the purple MA to cross the cyan MA in the top window.
Red circles are sell signals. Two things must happen. You need a cross over in the bottom window or the histogram to be negative and you also need a price bar to close below the cyan MA and the purple MA to cross the cyan MA in the top window.
Of course it is wise to use additional tools for the best confirmations and do not forget to always use protective stops.
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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
chart: Short Term Cycle Update
The following was posted on January 4,2016
Today's comments are in Blue
CORRECTION dated Jan 17,2016 in Red
Short term details:(every date is +/-)
Today's comments are in Blue
CORRECTION dated Jan 17,2016 in Red
Short term details:(every date is +/-)
From Dec 24th the cycles have an upward bias into December 29th to January 7-14 Dec
29th was another direct hit as a high did come on exactly that date.
There was a bias up into Dec 29 to Jan 7-14 and that is still the cycles
forecast. The traction that the market had into Dec 29th did not continue into Jan 7-14 as the cycles suggested. The market does not go either straight up or straight down
and therefore some counter trend moves do occur in these periods. The
big moves seen on the last days of 2015 and the big down open this
morning was much more volatile than the cycles suggested. Cycles do
suggest turning points and direction, but, they are not to be used for
amplitude. This was proven when the cycles chart below suggested a small drop and we actually had a large drop and it kept on going down. Other tools must always be used including the use of stops on all positions as part of your trading plan.
Below is a pic of the current cycles described above.
The Short Term Cycle dates have been
highlighted. On the way up into the Jan7-14 suggested highs, the
cycles did suggest a low on Jan 3rd which was Sunday. The cycles don't
know from weekends and Holidays so a carryover to the next day or a
"+/-" interpretation is always prudent. It is possible that today "MAY"
be a short term low.
The DJIA fell into Jan 4th which was one day after the Sunday Jan 3rd cycle date. The market then tried to rally, but, made a high on Jan 5th and then continued down into a low on Jan 11th. The DJIA then tried to rally and made a high on Jan 13th then again resumed it's fall. As this post is being written the DJIA Futures are down -150.00 points. If this holds continues on Friday Jan 15th, the possibility for another drop into the next cycle date of Jan 18th - 20th will increase.
Always use other indicators to CONFIRM the cycles suggested moves.
Intermediate Cycles suggest some sort
of correction in the first half of this year. Recent similar
intermediate cycles suggested corrections occurred during April 1992 -
Oct 1992 & Feb 2004 - Oct 2004. The new dates are from Jan/Feb 2016
- May/June/July 2016. This is still the forecast.
More on both the short term and intermediate term cycles as we get through some of these dates...
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This
has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and
consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Past performance is not indicative of future results
Wednesday, January 13, 2016
chart: Back to the Average Election Years
 |
| Courtesy of chartoftheday.com |
So far the YTD DJIA is down 6.7% into mid January. Sentiment is bearish, a contrarian indicator. Indicators/Oscillators are over sold and in buy areas. So what is going on? Why does the market keep going down?
One reason is momentum and the fact that bull markets last longer than bear markets so we experience bull markets for a longer period of time than we experience bear markets. At the beginning of a bull market there is momentum, a thrust, and as the bull gets under way the momentum starts to fade. Sometimes indicators/oscillators will generate sell signals, but, they will not even work and the bull just keeps going up.
That might just be what is happening now, in reverse. Maybe we are in a bear market?
The buying pressure has been showing positive divergence and the market keeps going down. What is probably happening is that the patten developing is not a short term pattern but a larger pattern that will take much more time to complete. If you take a close look at the buying presure chart you will see that this has happened before.
Short term cycles also have not been able to forecast turn dates and market direction recently as well as it had in the past. Dec 29th was the last cycle high that was forecast well. Then the short term cycle low of Jan 3rd was off by one day when the DJIA had a low on Jan 4th. But then, the market kept falling. Short term cycles are pointing down from Jan 13-14 into Jan 18-20, so let's see if the short term cycles get back on track again.
The intermediate cycles have been looking for a market correction in the first half of 2016. There is other information also suggesting a 2016 correction.
1) The pattern of the Average Election Years, see chart at the top of this page.
2) The 7th year of a two term President. 2015 was the first time since 1939 that the DJIA was down in the 7th year of a Presidency. The DJIA fell about 1/3 in 1940-1941. Note that 1940 was also an election tear.
3) The final year of a two term Presidency. In 5 of the last 6 times, the DJIA dropped and average of 13.9%.
4) No Santa rally this year. Yale Hirsch said, " If Santa Claus should fail to call, bears may come to Broad and Wall".
So back to the chart for a moment. The market does not go straight up or straight down. Even in the chart above there were several changes in trend. Be nimble and be careful. The market always tries to shake out as many investors/ and traders as possible. This is nothing new.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email.
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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
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