Thursday, January 21, 2016

Evidence of a Bottom ?

There have been several indications of an over sold market, but, is it a bottom or just a place from which a bounce will occur and then we go lower?

Indicator Review
1) RYNVX - Rydex Nova Fund Investor Class (Long Fund) - This fund hit a high on 12/29/15 of $189Mil and just today hit a low of $36Mil.  Tha is a very big swing in a short period of time.
2) The short term cycles have been suggesting a low on Jan 20, 2016 for several weeks
3) The Fear & Greed Index (from 0 to 100) is currently in Extreme Fear territory at "9"
4) % of DJIA Stocks Above 10 DMA is 6.67% out of 100% and over sold
5) ChaikinAnalytics.com charts of the DIA, IWM, QQQ, SPY are all in an over sold area
6) A/D Oscillator is deeply over sold
7) Volume Oscillator is deeply over sold
8) SPY Buying Pressure displays positive divergence

Many of these and other indicators have been looked at currently and historically.  Comparisons were made and the weight of evidence suggests that a bounce is likely with another leg down into the mid February period +/-.

On September 4,2015 there was a post calling for a Major Sell Signal.  This signal is still in force and nothing has caused it to change.  Based on this, rallies should be used to lighten up on stocks that are relatively weaker than the market.  For some, raising 100% cash might be in order.   Review your tolerance for risk before making any decisions.

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results


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