charts: Worst Yearly Start Since 1932

Today, so far, is the worst start of a new year since 1932, -8.09%. 
1922 also had a bad start being off -2.35% on the first day of trading.
BUT 1932 was also an Election Year and 1922 was not.
1922 was different.  Jan 3,1922 came after a 46% correction from Nov 1919 to Aug 1921 which is very different than the market environment we are in today and have been in during the last couple of years.
Not that 1932 is similar to our current day market environment, but, the similarity is that 1932 was an Election Year just as 2016 is.
Below is a comparison of the 1932 price chart and the chart of Average Election Years since 1900.

Courtesy of chartoftheday.com

Courtesy of Worden Bros.

After bad first day in 1932 the market held up in a trading range until it finally broke down in April and continued into a July low.
What is very interesting is that the chart of the Average Election Years above shows a very similar price pattern.
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes" - Mark Twain
So if the above gives us any hints to the price pattern for 2016, look for a high in the 1Q2016 and a low mid year +/-.

Looking at longer term repetitive cycles for additional guidance.
The following are dates of very similar cycles. 
April/May1992 high    Oct 1992 low    DJIA lost  -8%
Jan/Feb 2004 high       Oct 2004 low    DJIA  lost  -9%
Forecast:
Jan/Feb/March 2016 high       June/July 2016 low +/-    =  ?

This is interesting because it suggests a similar price pattern as the Average Election Year chart.

Now that we addressed the first half of the year, what about the second half ?
The second half will be discussed at a latter time.

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results