JustSignals

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.

Picasso Dates, always +/-
Aug 4-12 L - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H - High on 11/7
Nov 24-27L - Low was early on 11/15 and out of sync with the cycles
Dec 3-9H - High on Dec 4, so far
Dec 25L
Jan 7H


Comments:

Long term indicators appear positive, so far and the ADL is still making new ATHs. The LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-.   Well, we are now in this time frame and this is where we need to be careful and keep an eye on our indicators for any change in the trend.
-Looking out into 2018 the Picasso LT cycles suggest a mid year low.
-This also coincides with the four year Presidential cycle (2017-2020) where there is usually a low in the second year, (2nd yr is 2018), and a high in the third year, (3rd yr is 2019). It is widely known that the mid-term years are the best years for the stock market. (Keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time!)
The "key" is to be able to recognize when the second year low is in and when the third year high is in.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thursday, November 30, 2017

Escape Velocity for the Transports?

On Friday, March 4,2016 this blog posted data and information on the Escape Velocity as it was applied to the S&P500.
The link to this post ---> http://bit.ly/2Aqm3ub

Excerpts from the above post is below.
Why? Because the DJTransports just had 3 consecutive days of over a 1 1/2% gain each day.
Not sure if the Escape Velocity applies to the DJTransports, but, it has a lot of momentum regardless.

See for yourself...
Posted, Friday, March 4,2016
This post is about an article found on MarketWatch.com
The link to this article can be found at the bottom of this post.

"Historical pattern says the risk of a 2016 bear market is zero"
By Simon Maierhofer
Published: Feb 25,2016 12:57p.m. ET

In physics, escape velocity is the minimum speed needed for an object to break free from the gravitational attraction of a massive body. What is the “escape velocity” needed for stocks to break their down trend?
Unlike in physics, there is no fail-proof formula for stocks. However, based on history, the S&P 500 just rallied strongly enough to end its down trend. How so?
Stock-market 'escape velocity'
On Feb. 12, 16 and 17, the S&P 500 gained more than 1.5% a day for three consecutive days. Since 1970, this has happened only eight other times. The table below lists each occurrence along with the daily consecutive gains, and the return a year after the last “kickoff” day.

The Index used in the data above was the S&P500 and NOT the DJTransports

Observations by author

Every single time the S&P 500 gained more than 1.5% a day for three consecutive days, it traded higher a year later.
The S&P 500 violated the low set prior to the kickoff move only twice (1987, 2002). Both times it bounced back quickly.
In 2016, the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week low before its kickoff rally. In 1970, 1987 and 2011, the S&P 500 also closed at a 52-week just before soaring higher.
Obviously, kickoff rallies like this are not the only factor driving stocks, but this particular pattern confirms the six reasons for a stock market rally listed by the February 11 Profit Radar Report (all six reasons are available here).
The Feb. 11 Profit Radar Report recommended buying the S&P 500 at 1,828 (after it fell as low as 1,810) in anticipation of a sizeable rally.
As compelling as this historic pattern may be, tunnel vision is a luxury investors can't afford. It's worth noting that the 2016 kickoff is weaker (in terms of consecutive percentage gains) than prior kickoff rallies, and our major-market-top liquidity indicator raised a caution flag in May 2015.
The scope of this rally has yet to be revealed, and a break below the February low is still possible (like in 1987 and 2002).
Regardless of the S&P's near-term path, history says we shouldn't under estimate this kickoff rally. Acting on the sentiment-based buy signal at S&P 1,828 provided a low-risk entry point and insurance against a runaway rally.

Link to full article
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/historic-pattern-says-the-risk-of-a-2016-bear-market-is-zero-2016-02-25

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

charts: SPY Weekly & Monthly

Courtesy of eSignal

The top chart is the weekly SPY. Note that this weeks price bar is above the top band. Usually the price bar goes back below that point and trades within the bands.

The bottom chart is the monthly SPY with the Andrew's Pitch Fork. This months price bar, circled in red, is now up against the lower trend line. In the past you can see where these trend lines have been support and where they have been resistance.

Note that the Elliott Wave counts are not in stone. They constantly change as price bars change. They are only used as a suggestion of the wave count. There are always alternate wave counts that should be considered.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sunday, November 26, 2017

ChaikinAnalytics.com on Dow30 Stocks & Sectors

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

"Chaikin Power Tools" App FREE for iPhone
Note that the app has not been updated yet for iOS 11

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Picasso Cycle Update & More

By Wikipedia

A Santa Claus rally is a rise in stock prices in the month of December, generally seen over the final week of trading prior to the new year. The rally is generally attributed to anticipation of the January effect, an injection of additional funds into the market, and to additional trades which must, for accounting and tax reasons, be completed by the end of the year. Another reason for the rally may be fund managers "window dressing" their holdings with stocks that have performed well.

The Santa Claus rally is also known as the "December Effect" and was first recorded by Yale Hirsch in his Stock Traders Almanac in 1972.^[1]

By TheStreet.com
A "Santa Claus Rally" is when the stock market rallies during the month of December, usually, in the last week of the month. Sound familiar? You might be thinking of the January Effect, which presumably occurs when investors sell stocks in December only to buy them back in January for tax purposes. Confused yet?
At the end of the day, stock market rallies are attributable to the collective psychology of market participants. Some years, stock may post strong gains from December into January; other years, not so much.
Regardless, if you see stocks rallying in the week between Christmas and the New Year, people are going to call it a Santa Claus Rally.

Forbes
Oct 31, 2017 @ 11:54 PM
Is A Santa Claus Rally Ahead? Here Are The Key Charts To Watch

Jesse Colombo , Contributor

Link to article http://bit.ly/2n6maW8

Comments:

Long term indicators appear positive, so far and the ADL is still making new ATHs. The LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-.   Well, we are now in this time frame and this is where we need to be careful and keep an eye on our indicators for any change in the trend.
-Peter Eliades "Sign of the Bear" indicator, talked about on this Blog, gave another signal on October 15,2017. There is a lag between the past signals and the change in trend from bull to bear. See the weekly charts.
-Looking out into 2018 the Picasso LT cycles suggest a mid year low.
-This also coincides with the four year Presidential cycle (2017-2020) where there is usually a low in the second year, (2nd yr 2018), and a high in the third year, (3rd yr 2019). It is widely known that the mid-term years are the best years for the stock market. (Keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time!)
The "key" is to be able to recognize when the second year low is in and when the third year high is in.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Monday, November 13, 2017

Charts for "Sign of the Bear"

The indicator, Sign of the Bear, by Peter Eliades may be very important, so the charts are being displayed below on all the dates from this indicator.
Note that Peter's signals are based on his specific Rules and only the following dates were a result of these Rules since 1929.

On Friday November 10,2017 Peter Eliades was on FBN

Peter has a stock market newsletter called StockMarket Cycles. He was discussing an indicator he discovered in 1992 that he calls, “Sign of the Bear”. In short, there have been 8 occurrences in the past 88 years. Subsequent to these dates the stock market has fallen as follows.

July 19,1929 -89%

December 8,1961 -29%

January 25,1966 -26.5%

October 17,1968 -36.9%

December 6,1972 -46.5%

April 6,1998 -21%

September 15,2000 -32%

July 10, 2001 -27%

Now, why is this important? Because another signal just occurred on October 25,2017.

For each date mentioned above a daily and weekly chart are shown below.

There is a vertical line on each chart at the signal dates so you can see the price action that occurred in each year after the signal date. The price pattern after each date is slightly different.

But one thing stood out. The two signals that had the smallest losses were 1966 and 1998. Interestingly both of these years were the second year of the four year Presidential cycle and next year, 2018, is also the second year of the four year Presidential cycle.

So if history repeats itself, we could expect about a 20% - 25% correction.

More charts to follow...

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Sign of the Bear

The following are excerpts from posts on my blog (JustSignals.blogspot.com)

Wednesday, February 8,2017

Picasso Cycle Dates

Long term indicators appear positive, so far. Negative divergence on many indicators have been broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside. So, if small pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle dates and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
In addition, LT cycles suggest a high April +/-, low August +/- & high November +/-. Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.

Wednesday, November 8,2017

Picasso Cycle Update

Long term indicators appear positive, so far. Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside. So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
So far this forecast came to pass. The August low was accurate.

In addition, the LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, (which we had), & a high in late November/early December +/-.
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your indicators and or your professional investment advisors analysis.
The LT Cycle low suggested for August was shallow. The DJIA high was 22,179 and the DJIA low was 21,600. This was a 2.6% correction. Not much, but, it was a correction as forecasted nevertheless.

Wednesday, March 29,2017

Zweig Breadth Thrust

According to Dr. Zweig, there have only been fourteen Breadth Thrusts since 1945 (as of the date of the original printing of this article ???). The average gain following these fourteen Thrusts was 24.6% in an average time-frame of eleven months. Dr. Zweig also points out that most bull markets begin with a Breadth Thrust.

Friday November 10,2017 Peter Eliades was on FBN

July 19,1929 -89% December 8,1961 -29% January 25,1966 -26.5% October 17,1968 -36.9%

December 6,1972 -46.5% April 6,1998 -21% September 15,2000 -32% July 10, 2001 -27%

Now, why is this important? Because another event just occurred on October 25,2017.

Excerpts from articles on Peter Eliades, Sign of the Bear

There is, of course, the chance that the pattern this time around could be a non-event.

Remember, the ending of the pattern usually precedes the final market high; it does not usually coincide with or follow the market top.

What precautions can investors take now? For starters, they should decide exactly how much pain they are willing to abide if the market should turn sharply lower. While a decline of 10 to 15 percent should not alarm true long-term investors, they must always be on their guard against the 40-80 percent declines that tend to occur every few generations, says Eliades.

A stop-loss can ensure that one exits safely ahead of the Big One. "Decide now where you would sell a stock or mutual fund and still not be badly hurt," advises Eliades. "This should usually be about 12 to 15 percent below current levels or recent portfolio highs."
Stick to your plan, he admonishes, and monitor your portfolio closely so that you can raise your bail-out price as the market advances. "The risk is that you might sell out at lows just before stocks go up again," he says, "but the insurance is well worth it, since you will be protected against catastrophic declines."

The WSJ

By Simon Constable

Nov. 3, 2013

The Second Year of the Four Year Presidential Cycle

Tomorrow, as you cast a vote, you might also gird yourself for rocky markets ahead, especially during the first nine months of 2014. How so? The second year of a presidential term is traditionally a period of subpar stock performance. The "presidential stock market cycle" says that stocks perform better or worse depending on the year of the president's term. The second year is the worst, and the third is the best, on average. Specifically, since 1945, the second year of a president's term saw the S&P 500 gain 5.3% in price on average, versus 16.1% in the third, according to an analysis by S&P Capital IQ. No distinction is made between a president's first or second term. The clock simply starts over.

Of course, the figures are averages, so not all years follow the cycle in lock step. Still, the third year sees the index gain 88% of the time; the second year, only 59%. The second-year subpar performance is actually even worse for the first nine months of the year; losses average 0.5% then. Why is that second year so bad? Because that is when the U.S. economy gets less attention from ruling-party politicians, says Sam Stovall, chief equity strategist at S&P Capital IQ, in New York. Mr. Stovall likens the second year to "sophomore slump. "By contrast, "the third year, the year before the election, investors anticipate that the party in power wants to stay in power, so they try to boost the economy," he says. That stimulus tends to carry over into the last, or lame-duck, year. Then, in the first year, the president and the economy tend to get the benefit of the "honeymoon period. "This is no new phenomenon. A 1992 analysis published in the Financial Analysts Journal compared the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the cycle from 1901 through 1990. That data also showed second years were subpar and third years best.

Mr. Constable is host of WSJ Live's News Hub show, on WSJ.com. Email him at simon.constable@wsj.com.

· The above excerpts suggest a possible near term high in the stock market and then a possible low and or weakness in 2018.

· As always, watch your indicators, do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.

Picasso Dates, always +/-
Aug 4-12 L - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H
Nov 24-27L

Comments:

Long term indicators appear positive, so far. Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside. So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
So far this forecast came to pass. The August low was accurate.

In addition, the LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-.
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your indicators and or your professional investment advisors analysis.
The LT Cycle low suggested for August was shallow. The DJIA high was 22,179 and the DJIA low was 21,600. This was a 2.6% correction. Not much, but, it was a correction as forecasted nevertheless.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday, October 30, 2017

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.

Picasso Dates, always +/-
Aug 4-12 L - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H - up into 10/18 and high made on 10/23
Oct 10/24-31L --->Sorry for the late posting of this date - Low on 10/25
Nov 11/6-9H

Comments:

Long term indicators appear positive, so far. Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside. So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
So far this forecast came to pass. The August low was accurate.

In addition, the LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in late November/early December +/-.
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your indicators and or your professional investment advisors analysis.
The LT Cycle low suggested for August was shallow. The DJIA high was 22,179 and the DJIA low was 21,600. This was a 2.6% correction. Not much, but, it was a correction as forecasted nevertheless.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday, October 26, 2017

RYNVX big change in market cap !

Updates in BLUE - RYNVX market capitalization increased $321Mil from Tuesday Oct 24th to today, Oct 26th.

RYNVX - Rydex Nova Fund Investor Class (Long Fund)

RYNVX Oct 24,2017 $92,20Mil & Oct 26,2017 $413.07Mil

$413.07Mil is the largest market capitalization in RYNVX since March 2009.

Note The RYNVX increased $321Mil in two trading days. That is a whopping increase of $321Mil in market capitalization. This could be interpreted as some were fearful of not being long in this Nova Fund. Is that fear bearish for the market? It is possible that this "could" have come from some stock market newsletter writer advising their clients to buy.

When this Long Fund has big changes in market cap in a very short time frame, not very sure if this will have any influence in the market. We will keep an eye on this and let you know what happens.

Large & small dollar amounts of market cap in the RYNVX long fund displays Greed & Fear in the market...

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email.
Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

chart: SPY vs Hi - Lo 10DMA

The SPY vs Hi - Lo 10DMA as of today's close

This chart should be self explanatory.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart: Goldman Sachs Says....

Courtesy of Jesse Columbo, @TheBubbleBubble

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

chart: McClellan Summation

Below are two McClellan Summation (MS) charts as shown by Worden Bros charting service.
The top chart is from 2009-2017. Note that the area highlighted in yellow was enlarged in the lower chart.
Most of the time the MS goes between either -2000 & +2000 or -3000 & +3000. Occasionally it does reach extreme readings of -4000 & +4000.
As you can see in 2009 & in 2016 the MS did go below -4000 and in 2012-2013 it went between -3000 & +3000.
But, starting in 2015 the MS did not get above +500 even while the stock market did trade higher and was making new ATH's.
It is currently at a triple top area at or just under +500.
If the MS cannot get past +500 decisively, then a correction of some sort may be on the horizon.
Also, a chart of stocks above their 200DMA have had lower tops over the last 18 months.
This also confirms the current MS chart.
At the very least, if the MS stalls here as it did the last two times, highlighted in yellow & circled in red in the lower chart, you can see that the market went into a sideways trading pattern,

Courtesy of Worden Bros.

Courtesy or Worden Bros.

By Investopedia
The index is calculated by adding the current day's McClellan Oscillator to the previous day's Summation Index, making it a cumulative measure of movements. Given that it is based on past prices, it is a lagging indicator.
Usually, a small number of stocks making large gains characterizes a weakening bull market. This gives the perception that the overall market is healthy, but in reality it isn't, as rising prices are being driven by a small number of stocks. Conversely, when a bear market is still declining, but a smaller amount of stocks are declining, an end to the bear market may be near. The McClellan Oscillator — which the Summation index is based on — is calculated using 19- and 39-day exponential moving averages, which avoids applying large gains and declines of a few stocks to the whole market, thus it indicates the trend itself, as well as the strength of it.

Interpretation

(By StockCharts.com Chart School)
The Summation Index rises when the McClellan Oscillator is positive and falls when the McClellan Oscillator is negative. Extended positive numbers in the McClellan Oscillator cause the Summation Index to trend higher. Conversely, extended negative readings cause the Summation Index to trend lower.

Because of its cumulative nature, the Summation Index is a slower version of the McClellan Oscillator. The index crosses the zero line fewer times, forms divergences less often and produces fewer signals in general. Whereas the McClellan Oscillator can be used for short-term and medium-term timing, the Summation Index is generally used for medium-term and long-term timing.

There are three basic signals. First, the Summation Index generally favors the bulls when positive and the bears when negative. Second, chartists can look for bullish and bearish divergences to anticipate reversals. Third, chartists can identify directional movement to define a bullish or bearish bias.

Sunday, October 8, 2017

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.

Picasso Dates, always +/-
Mar 3-14 H - high occurred on Mar 15th
Mar 20-28 L - possible low occurring in this time frame - Low occurred on March 27th
Apr 10-13 H (+/-) - high occurred on April 5th & later on Apr 10th
Apr 4/21-24 L (+/-) - lows occurred on April 13th, 18th, 19th, 21st
Apr 28- May8 H - highs on April 26th & May 9th...only 3 day correction, then grinded higher
May 21 L - actual low 2 TD's early on May18
May 25-June 1 H - June 1 hit a high then grinded marginally higher to June 9
June 10-19 L - actual low June 16
June 28-July3 H - June 26th high near this time frame - DJIA high, so far, July 3rd
July 7-14 L - low was July 11
July 19-28 H - So far, SPY 7/27 H, QQQ 7/27 H, IWM 7/25 H
Aug 4-12 L - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H - a high was made on 9/14
Sept 29-Oct 5 L - a low was made on 9/25 (left translation of this cycle date)
Oct 11-17 H

Comments:

Long term indicators appear positive, so far. Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside. So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
So far this forecast came to pass. The August low was accurate.

In addition, the LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in November +/-.
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.
The LT Cycle low suggested for August was shallow. The DJIA high was 22,179 and the DJIA low was 21,600. This was a 2.6% correction. Not much, but, it was a correction as forecasted nevertheless.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Are We There Yet?

On March 29,2017 we discussed the Zweig Breadth Thrust. A copy of that post is below. The interesting part of that post is when you look at the DJIA projection. If you apply the average gain of the ZBT to the low at Nov 2016 you hit a forecast of 22,500 11 months later in Oct 2017. That is about where we are right now. That forecast when applied to the S&P500 is 2,625 and we are not at that point yet. But, we are not too far away. Maybe if we take an average of the DJIA and the S&P500 we will get a better forecast. In any event, between the ZBT and the Long Term Picasso Cycles forecast of a potential November 2017 high, the caution light is on to watch your charts carefully for any intermediate term sell signals on the weekly and monthly charts.

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Zweig Breadth Thrust

The Breadth Thrust indicator is a market momentum indicator. It was developed by Dr. Martin Zweig. The Breadth Thrust is calculated by dividing a 10-day exponential moving average of the number of advancing issues, by the number of advancing plus declining issues.

Interpretation

A "Breadth Thrust" occurs when, during a 10-day period, the Breadth Thrust indicator rises from below 40% to above 61.5%. A "Thrust" indicates that the stock market has rapidly changed from an oversold condition to one of strength, but has not yet become overbought.

The last ZBT that we noted, occurred starting Nov 8,2016.
If we apply the the average gain of 24.6% to the average length of 11 months we get:
DJIA Nov. 2016 18,000 --->22,500 forecast 11 months later in Oct.2017
S&P500 Nov. 2016 2,100 ---> 2.625 forecast 11 months later in Oct.2017

Will the stock market possibly continue straight up until Oct, 2017? We doubt it. In fact, the LT Picasso Cycle dates suggest an April high +/-, an August low +/- and then a Nov high +/-. This last high in Nov is very close to the ZBT average forecast high in Oct. 2017.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday, December 5, 2017

Thursday, November 30, 2017

Wednesday, November 29, 2017

Sunday, November 26, 2017

Monday, November 13, 2017

Saturday, November 11, 2017

Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Monday, October 30, 2017

Thursday, October 26, 2017

Tuesday, October 17, 2017

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Interpretation

Sunday, October 8, 2017

Wednesday, March 29, 2017

Zweig Breadth Thrust

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