charts: Fear Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN

Courtesy of CNN

Recent important postings
Post 9/3/15 - The magic of 150 months - September 2015 low
Post 9/5/15 - Fear Greed index - Suggests an oversold market
Post 9/2/15 - Bottom Finder - Suggests an oversold market
Post 9/4/25 - Major Sell - Suggests that an aging bull market is coming to an end soon

Summary
The evidence is that an aging bull market is coming to an end soon, but, not before one last rally.  The oversold condition of the market appears to be similar to the period of October 2014.  If a rally materializes, it is probable based on LT cycles that a high may develop in the period of November and or February +/-.  From today's assessment, this is a likely time frame before the bear takes hold.  This is also consistent with the subsequent price action in the last two major sell signals in the 9/4/15 post.  

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

charts: MAJOR SIGNAL

"IF" THE WEEKLY SPY CLOSES TODAY LOWER THAN 195.62, ANOTHER SELL SIGNAL WILL BE GENERATED SIMILAR TO THE OCTOBER 2000 & MARCH 2008 SELL SIGNALS.

In the following charts you will see how the monthly SPY used with the weekly SPY has been an excellent signal filter in the past 20 years.  Sell signals in the monthly SPY has confirmed sell signals in the weekly SPY.  When the monthly SPY was on a buy signal and the weekly SPY gave a sell signal it was short lived and therefore the sell signal failed. 

The following is a good example of what anyone can do with eSignal or similar platform and some ingenuity. 

Courtesy of eSignal

In the monthly SPY chart above sell signals are highlighted in yellow in October 2000, March 2008 & August 2015

Courtesy of eSignal

In the weekly SPY chart above the sell signal highlighted in yellow after the monthly October 2000 sell signal occurred November 27,2000.  Note that weekly signals that did not occur with monthly signals were failures.

Courtesy of eSignal

In the weekly SPY chart above the sell signal closest to the monthly March 2008 sell signal highlighted in yellow occurred December 31,2007.  In this case the weekly sell signal could have been a failure, but, it was confirmed as the monthly SPY did generate a sell signal a few months later.  Again, note that weekly signals that did not occur with monthly signals were failures.

Courtesy of eSignal

In the weekly SPY chart above the sell signal "MAY" happen at today's weekly close if the SPY closes below 195.62.  The monthly SPY already has generated a sell signal at the close of August 2015.  So all we have to do is wait for the close today to see if another MAJOR SELL SIGNAL is generated.  Again, note that weekly signals that did not occur with monthly signals were failures.

*On any major sell signal it does NOT mean that the market goes straight down.  In fact you can see in the last two and only two signals shown above that the market acted different both times.  This means that the market can act differently this time too.  The possibility for marginal new highs can never be ruled out either while the sell signals do not revert back to buy signals.  But, until the signals turn bullish, the market trend is up and not down, etc, etc, etc, rallies can be sold and watch your indicators carefully for ANY changes.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart: The Magic of 150 Months

Courtesy of McClellan Financial Publications

Refer to the following link for the full article
http://bit.ly/1O0QMgq

From the work of Tom McClellan and Peter Eliades
The basic point is that a period of 150 months (12.5 years) shows up in lots of places as the time distance between several important turning points for stock prices.  The price data in the chart this week is the log value of the monthly close of the DJIA.  Using log scaling allows us to better see the turning points without the effect of arithmetic scaling interfering with the view.
Readers should understand that this is not meant to show a 150-month cycle persisting throughout history.  Rather, it is an interesting coincidence that if you count forward by about 150 months from almost any major price turning point (high or low), you find another one, although not necessarily of the same type.  There are probably even more such relationships than just the ones shown here.
As we noted in the newsletter article, the 150-month period is related to a longer 393-month turning point pattern by virtue of the Fibonacci ratio.  Multiply 150 times 2.618 and you get 393.  Alternatively, if you multiply 393 by 0.382, you get 150.  It works backwards and forwards.

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charts: DJIA daily & weekly

DJIA daily chart

Courtesy of eSignal

DJIA weekly chart

Courtesy of eSignal

Both of the above charts are showing 3 of 5 Elliott Waves (EW) down as of today.  This EW count can change based on the future price pattern if it does not unfold in classic impulse wave form.
The DJIA bounced off of 16000 as suggested but hit resistance as suggested by today's price bar.  At the time of this writing it looks like a Japanese Candle "Shooting Star". 
(A long upper shadow indicates that the Bulls controlled the ball for part of the game, but lost control by the end and the Bears made an impressive comeback.)
If we cannot get much higher and the daily chart EW count is an impulse wave down then it will have stopped the short term rally at wave 4 and we will continue down to test the bottom of wave 3 at last Monday's low and complete 5 waves down before we start to rally.
JustSignals short term cycles suggests that last Monday's low is "likely" to be tested during Sept 10-13 and Sept 21-26 +/- .
The market sentiment has been very bearish lately.  The market is also very oversold and as oversold as it was in Oct 2014.  One more pullback here is NOT necessary but it will help make a better bottom for a year end rally.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Chart of the Day - BNCN

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

Info from Chaikin Analytics
Power Gauge - very bullish
Technicals - Strong
Industry - Strong
Signals  - Strong

Chaikin Report - 9/3/15, 09:16
Power Gauge Rating - Very Bullish
Financials - Bullish
Earnings - Very Bullish
Technicals - Very Bullish
Experts - Very Bullish

Chart indicators
Price above Chaikin proprietary 200 DMA
CMF - Green
OBOS - OS in buy area
RS - Green
Chaikin Power Gauge - Green

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chart: Bottom Finder

Courtesy of StockCharts.com

In the last three plus years there are five times when this indicator is in the same oversold buy area.  Each is highlighted in yellow.

Summary:
It is calculated by counting the number of Dow stocks whose short-term (daily) KST is in the winter and spring positions. The indicator itself is the differential between them. As progressively more groups experience winter relative to spring the indicator falls. When this differential starts to reverse to the upside the indicator bottoms, and a buy signal is generated. Note that the actual data is plotted inversely so that movements in the indicator correspond to those of the Dow, S&P or any other market average that it is being compared to.

In order for a reversal to qualify we must see the indicator fall to its oversold levels and then reverse. These signals are usually reliable, but by no means a perfect indicator. For this reason a more conservative approach is to wait for a positive MA crossover not shown in the above chart. The MA to be used is a 10-day SMA. Even so, in the vast majority of reversals that develop at or below the oversold condition do so in a slow deliberate manner with very little in the way of false upside reversals.

 This indicator is pretty good at calling bottoms, even counter-cyclical ones, but it’s important to note that this is its only function in life. Occasionally it can call a top with a timely reversal from an extended level but there are far too many exceptions to apply this approach, because the indictor has been specifically designed to identify short-term buying opportunities.

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chart: DJU 60min

Courtesy of eSignal

This 60min chart is suggesting that one leg down is finding support in the area of the June 2015 bottom.  This is also evident in the suggested EW structure of 5 waves down.  Over time this wave count can change if the count does not hold to the EW rules, so this "may not" be written in stone and must be watched for any changes in the wave count.  The trend lines are a very good confirmation of the direction in trend.

General Market Comments
After reviewing all 30 DJIA charts, it looks like the market is trying to find some kind of short term bottom.  This would also be in line with the recent short term update posted.  If we do find a short term bottom shortly as the short term cycles are suggesting then we may have an upward bias into the Sept10-13 time frame.  After that the short term cycles suggest some more action to the downside from Sept 10-13 to Sept 26.  More on this later.

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chart: SPY Monthly signal

Courtesy of eSignal

SPY montly chart
1-The August 2015 price bar broke below the bottom Andrews pitchfork trendline
2-In the middle window the blue MA crossed down below the red MA as it did back in 2000 & 2008
3-In the bottom window the oscillator is in the bottom half, below zero.  As long as it stays in the lower half of this chart the market will continue to be weak.
4-Historical data shows September is the weakest month of the year
5-The 7th year of the Presidential cycle suggested a weak market in this time frame.  See chart posted on Aug12th.

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Fear Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN at 10:04am

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Short Term Update & The Shemitah

The following was posted on August 18,2015
Todays comments are in BOLD

Short term details:(every date is +/-)
Aug 4 high    On Aug 3rd for DJUA and on Aug 5th for IWM, QQQ, DJTA, DJIA, SPY
Aug 8 low     Made on Aug 7-8
Aug 13 high   At the close a high was made intraday
Aug 19-20  low  with some jiggle around Aug 15-17 The jiggle came in early on Aug 14-17   The forecast low of Aug 19-20 did not hold and the weakness carried over to Friday Aug 21st.  As noted in the past, Friday trends can carry over to Monday and this one did big time.
Aug 21     high   This of course did not happen and as noted in the past, Friday trends can carry over to Monday and this one did big time.
Aug 21-27  cycles suggest some chop & slop   Chop & slop was an understatement.  It was more like a cyclone.
Sept 1   high  At this writing the high was one day early on Aug 28th.  
Sept 2  low
Sept 4  high
Sept 5  low (Saturday, so +/-)
Sept 10-13  high (Sept 13th is Sunday, so +/-)
Sept 26  low Sept 26 is Saturday, so +/-)
 
Note that Sept 13 is a partial solar eclipse and the Shemitah and Sept 27 is a total lunar eclipse

The following is courtesy of CharismaNews.com

It all starts with the end of the Shemitah year on Sept. 13. During the last two cycles, we witnessed historic stock market crashes on the very last day of the Shemitah year (Elul 29 on the Biblical calendar). For example, if you go back to Sept. 17, 2001 (which was Elul 29 on the biblical calendar), we witnessed the greatest one-day stock market crash in all of U.S. history up until that time. The Dow plunged 684 points, and it was a record that held for exactly seven years until the end of the next Shemitah cycle.

On Sept. 29, 2008 (which was also Elul 29 on the biblical calendar), the Dow plummeted 777 points, which still today remains the greatest one-day stock market crash of all time in the United States.

Now we are in another Shemitah year. It began in the fall 2014, and it ends on Sept. 13, 2015.

So will we see a stock market crash in the United States on Sept. 13, 2015?

No we will not, because that day is a Sunday. So I can guarantee there will not be a stock market crash in the U.S. on that day. But as author Jonathan Cahn has pointed out in his book on the Shemitah, we have witnessed major stock market crashes happen just before the end of the Shemitah year and we have also witnessed major stock market crashes happen within just a few weeks after the end of the Shemitah year. So we are not necessarily looking at one particular date.

More as we approach Sept 13th and then Sept 26th

The following is Courtesy of SilverDoctors.com
The early July lows at 17,465 on the DOW, 2044 on the S&P 500, the 4901 on the Nasdaq will not hold this summer as the July lows are expected to break into new lows and a new bear market cycle of lower lows and lower highs begins.  This Bear Market Cycle is expected to put in a devastating crash cycle low in 2016 on the 50-year Jubilee.

Summer is NOT over and the rest of August is NOT looking good for the Stock Market, the July lows referenced above are still expected to break in this month.  If they all break or not in the near term, the long term cycle into 2016 is a crash cycle down.

A US Stock Market Crash in September?

Interestingly, the cycle analysis does not indicate a Stock Market crash is expected in September even though many are expecting a crash in September, based off the 7-year Shemitah cycle.  This 7^th year comes to an end on September 13, 2015 (elul 29), only to be immediately followed a Jubilee (50^th) year beginning September 14, 2015 and ending in September 2016.  Even though the last two 7-years cycles both caused Stock Market crashes on the exact day of elul 29; in this case neither of the prior 2 cycles were followed by a Jubilee year.  So the ‘suddenly’ referenced above is not expected in September on elul 29; but later this year and that cycle time point we included in our Stock Index.

Therefore, those expecting a Stock Market crash on elul 29 (September 13, 2015), expect to be disappointed; for it is the following year of Jubilee that is expected to bring all the devastation to the world stock markets!

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chart:Tom DeMark MOB 4 China

Courtesy of Bloomberg

Read the full article at this link
http://bloom.bg/1NHHCFy

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Fear Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN at 9:55AM

Courtesy of CNN at 9:55AM

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chart: DJIA stocks above 10DMA

Courtesy of IndexIndicators.com

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charts: Fear Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN at 11:20AM on Aug 20,2016

Courtesy of CNN at 11:20AM on Aug 20,2016

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Chaikin charts: DIA IWM SPY QQQ

Last time these charts were posted was on August 6,2016

Review these past posts to get a better sense of the bigger picture
Post July 29,2016 - September is the weakest month of the year
Post August 12,2016 - Intermediate Term Cycles
Post August 17,2016 - 4 Year Cycle

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

DIA has been making lower lows and lower highs since May 19th so it is in a downtrend.
In the chart the CMF gained a little into the green as the OBOS indicator moved up in the OB area.  But the RS stayed firmly in the orange area.  What we want to see is a rising CMF in the green with a rising RS in the green for a healthy chart.  It is also best when accompanied by the price above the tan MA too, but, price is below it.

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

IWM has been making lower lows and lower highs since June 24th so it is in a down trend.
In the chart the CMF is barely moved into the green as the OBOS indicator moved into the OB area. This displays continued weakness.  Also note that the RS is still in the orange area and it has not been able to move up significantly. 

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

In the chart the CMF broke up and into the green since July 27th.   The CMF has stayed in the green as the OBOS indicator dropped in to the OS area and then bounced back up to the OB area which is positive.  The RS though is still firmly in the orange area and the price is below the tan MA.  This is an indication of a weak chart.

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

QQQ is the only chart in the four charts above that has been making higher lows and higher highs and the only chart that made a high in the Aug 4 +/- forecast window. 
In the chart, just like the SPY, the CMF broke above the red since July 27th and so far has stayed in the green as the OBOS indicator dropped in to the OS area.  What is not good is that the CMF and RS is declining as the price and OBOS indicator is rising.  This is a possible negative divergence.

Additional Notes
1-The stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25 and this happened 4 times this year between June & August
2-The data supports that September +/- is the worst period of the year which occurs just ahead of a historically positive November-December and or October, November, December, January period
3-Both the average 3rd years & 7th years of the Presidential cycle show several months of a mid year topping phase just before some market corrections in the September/October period and then a rally into the year end 
4-Fear Greed Index is in the extreme fear area.  This is a contrarian point of view.
5-The Intermediate Term Cycles are suggesting nothing different and still suggest a rally into November and or January.

The short term cycles from Aug 19-20 do suggest some chop & slop from Aug 21 -27 then grinding bias to the upside into Sept 13th and then some bias to the downside into Sept 26th.  From that point the cycles suggest bias to the upside into November and or January +/-.   More on this early in Sept2016.


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Short Term Update

The following was posted on August 13,2015
Todays comments are in BOLD

Short term details:(every date is +/-)
July 17-20 high   high was made on July 20th
July 23-29 low    On time so far
Aug 4 high    On Aug 3rd for DJUA and on Aug 5th for IWM, QQQ, DJTA, DJIA, SPY
Aug 8 low     Made on Aug 7-8
Aug 13 high   At the close a high was made intraday
Aug 19-20  low  with some jiggle around Aug 15-17 The jiggle came in early on Aug 14-17
Aug 21     high
Aug 21-27  cycles suggest some chop & slop
Sept 1   high

More as we approach Sept 1st

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Gold & Stan Druckenmiller

Hedge fund billionaire Stan Druckenmiller has made a huge bet on gold
Click on the link below to read the article
Or copy and paste in your browser
 http://read.bi/1hHDwAX 

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chart: 4 year cycle

Courtesy of Jeffrey Young's Public Charts

The following is Courtesy of MarketInOut.com
4 Year Cycle (Kitchin Wave). In 1923, Joseph Kitchin found that a 40 month cycle existed in a variety of financial items in both Great Britain and the United States between 1890 and 1922. The four-year cycle was later found to have an extremely strong presence in the stock market between 1868 and 1945.
Although it is called a "four-year cycle," the cycle length has been found to vary between 40 and 53 months.

The Kitchin 4 year cycle confirms exactly what Jeffrey Young displays in his chart above.
Also JustSignals intermediate term cycles has been suggesting a correction low sometime in the 2Q/3Q of 2016.

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Short Term Update

The following was posted on July 24,2015
Todays comments are in BOLD

June 30 to July 8 & may be to July 13 & possible to July 20th - cycles suggest a potential consolidation period with a possible bias to the upside.   
This was true for QQQ, DJUA, SPY, DJTA, but not for IWM, DJIA
Relative strength of each must be monitored

Short term details:(every date is +/-)
July 17-20 high   high was made on July 20th
July 23-29 low    On time so far
Aug 4 high    On Aug 3rd for DJUA and on Aug 5th for IWM, QQQ, DJTA, DJIA, SPY
Aug 8 low     Made on Aug 7-8
Aug 13 high   At the close a high was made intraday
Aug 19-20  low  with some jiggle around Aug 15-17

More as we approach Aug 19th

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Intermediate Term Cycles Forecast

Updated Intermediate Term Comments:   (supported by info and data below)
1-The stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25 and this happened 4 times this year between June & August
2-The data below supports that September +/- is the worst period of the year which occurs just ahead of a historically positive November-December and or October, November, December, January period
3-Both the average 3rd years & 7th years of the Presidential cycle show several months of a mid year topping phase just before some market corrections in the September/October period and then a rally into the year end 
4-Fear Greed Index is at 6 today.  This is a contrarian point of view.
5-The Intermediate Term Cycles are suggesting nothing different and still suggest a rally into November and or January.
Note that cycles do NOT suggest that future suggested highs can be or will be higher or lower than past highs or that future suggested lows can be or will be lower or higher than past lows.


The following excerpts was posted on August 6,2015

JustSignals posts for the intermediate cycles have been suggesting:
The intermediate forecast is for a top either on May 21+/- and or June 18-19+/- (both dates were accurate) with a potential correction into July 29+/- (also accurate).  The cycles then forecast a rally into November and or January.  Here is where it gets a little trickly.  At this point the short term cycles suggest some interruption in the Intermediate Term forecast.  The periods of Aug 13-19 +/- and Sept 13-26 +/- are areas that suggest a downward bias in the market.   If any other periods are noticed they will be posted ahead of time.

*Also note that September +/- is the weakest month of the year for the stock market and we are entering a period of weakness suggested by the Average 3rd Years of the Presidential Cycle and the Average 7th Years of the Presidential Cycle.

So, similar action subsequent to June 9,2011 is a good possibility at this point based on the suggestions of the intermediate cycles , short term cycles, September weakness, the Average 3rd Years of the Presidential Cycle and the Average 7th Years of the Presidential Cycle and Aubie Baltin's interpretation of the AAII Bullish %.


Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD. and writer of the market newsletter, UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE,  once wrote that the stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25.
Recent dates when the AAII Bullish % was less than 25.00
June 9,2011    24.40  - Sell off into Aug 2011 before continuing higher
May 16,2012  23.60  - Market continued higher
July 18,2012   22.20  - Market continued higher
April 10,2013 19.30  - Market continued higher
June 10,2015  20.00  - ???
July 1,2015     22.60
July 29,2015   21.10
Aug 5,2015     24.30


The following excerpts was posted on July 29,2015

Courtesy of thepatternsite.com

Courtesy of thepatternsite.com

Data from moneychimp.com

            Yrs  Yrs  Avg

Month  Up  Dn   Gain/Loss

Jan        39   26   +0.94%

Feb       37   28    -0.13%

Mar       42   23   +1.10%

Apr       44   21   +1.36%

May      37   28   +0.11%

Jun       33   32    -0.07%

Jul        35   30   +0.83%

Aug     37   28    -0.18%

Sep     29   36     -0.65%

Oct     40   25     +0.68%

Nov    43   22     +1.37%

Dec    49   16     +1.59%

The data above supports that September is the worst month of the year and that the best six months of the year is November to April.

The following excerpts was posted on June 19,2015

  Today on Twitter there was a chart by SeeItMarket.com on the 7th year of the Presidential cycle (this occurs when a President serves two terms).  In addition, their link takes you to an article which included another chart on the 3rd year of the Presidential cycle.  Both the 7th year and the 3rd year of the Presidential cycles fall in this year, 2015.
Here are those charts.

courtesy of SeeItMarket.com

Both of these charts show a rough several months just ahead before a year end rally.  Of course, both of these charts are the "averages" of several 3rd and 7th years.

Intermediate Term Cycles Forecast:
The following is also similar to the 7 year Presidential chart above
June, July, August +/-  - high  
IWM high June 24th
QQQ high July 20th
DJIA high May 19th
September, October +/-  - low
IWM low today so far
QQQ low July 7th so far
DJIA low today so far 


The following excerpts was posted on August 11,,2015

Fear Greed Index = 6 ---> Last updated Aug 12,2015 at 11:54am

Courtesy of CNN Tuesday 8/11/15 at 3:31pm

Courtesy of CNN

 The following excerpts was posted on June 9,2015

The intermediate forecast is for a top either on May 21+/- and or June 18-19+/- with a potential correction into July 29+/-.  The cycles then forecast a rally into November and or January.
Keep checking for further updates.
The dates forecast back on June 9,2015 turned out to be pretty accurate.  The only date that did not hold was the low of July 29th.   The low extended, so far, into August 2015.



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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Fear Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN Tuesday 8/11/15 at 3:31pm

Courtesy of CNN

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Fear Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN

Courtesy of CNN

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AAII Bullish %

Posted on Thursday, June 11, 2015 today's comments in Blue

AAII Bullish %

Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD. and writer of the market newsletter, UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE,  once wrote that the stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25.

Recent dates when the AAII Bullish % was less than 25.00
June 9,2011    24.40  - Sell off into Aug 2011 before continuing higher
May 16,2012  23.60  - Market continued higher
July 18,2012   22.20  - Market continued higher
April 10,2013 19.30  - Market continued higher
June 10,2015  20.00  - ???
July 1,2015     22.60
July 29,2015   21.10

Aug 5,2015     24.30

*The continuation of additional Bullish %'s below 25.00% so close together suggests that the market may rally 3-6 months out.  If Aubie Baltin is correct again, then it certainly agrees with the suggestions of the Intermediate term cycles. 


JustSignals posts for the intermediate cycles have been suggesting:
The intermediate forecast is for a top either on May 21+/- and or June 18-19+/- (both dates were accurate) with a potential correction into July 29+/- (also accurate).  The cycles then forecast a rally into November and or January.  Here is where it gets a little trickly.  At this point the short term cycles suggest some interruption in the Intermediate Term forecast.  The periods of Aug 13-19 +/- and Sept 13-26 +/- are areas that suggest a downward bias in the market.   If any other periods are noticed they will be posted ahead of time.

*Also note that September +/- is the weakest month of the year for the stock market and we are entering a period of weakness suggested by the Average 3rd Years of the Presidential Cycle and the Average 7th Years of the Presidential Cycle.

So, similar action subsequent to June 9,2011 is a good possibility at this point based on the suggestions of the intermediate cycles , short term cycles, September weakness, the Average 3rd Years of the Presidential Cycle and the Average 7th Years of the Presidential Cycle and Aubie Baltin's interpretation of the AAII Bullish %.

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 
Past performance is not indicative of future results

Chaikin charts: DIA IWM SPY QQQ

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

Short term forecasts: (every date is +/-)
July 17-20 high   high was made on July 20th
July 23-29 low    low was made on July 27th 
Aug 4 high         high was made on July 31st, although a failed attempt on Aug 5th
Aug 8 low          in that window now
Aug 13 high       next suggested high

DIA has been making lower lows and lower highs since May 19th so technically it is in a down trend.
In the chart the CMF is barely in the red as the OBOS indicator fell in an OS area.  This may allow for a rise into the next forecast high of Aug 13th.  Another post will be made as we get in that time frame.     

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

Short term forecasts: (every date is +/-)
July 17-20 high   high was made on July 16th
July 23-29 low    low was made on July 28th 
Aug 4 high         high was made on July 31st, although a failed attempt on Aug 5th
Aug 8 low          in that window now
Aug 13 high       next suggested high

IWM has been making lower lows and lower highs since June 24th so technically it is in a down trend.
In the chart the CMF is barely in the red.  This may allow for a rise into the next forecast high of Aug 13th.  Another post will be made as we get in that time frame.    

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

Short term forecasts: (every date is +/-)
July 17-20 high   high was made on July 20th
July 23-29 low    low was made on July 27th 
Aug 4 high         high was made on July 31st, although a failed attempt on Aug 5th
Aug 8 low          in that window now
Aug 13 high       next suggested high

SPY has been making a triangle pattern if you draw a trend line down from the July 20th high and another trend line up from the July 7th low. 
In the chart the CMF broke above the red since July 27th and so far has stayed in the green as the OBOS indicator dropped in to the OS area. With rising price bottoms and a CMF in the green, this may allow for a rise into the next forecast high of Aug 13th.  Another post will be made as we get in that time frame.    

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

Short term forecasts: (every date is +/-)
July 17-20 high   high was made on July 20th
July 23-29 low    low was made on July 27th 
Aug 4 high         high was made on Aug 5th
Aug 8 low          in that window now
Aug 13 high       next suggested high

QQQ is the only chart in the four charts above that has been making higher lows and higher highs and the only chart that made a high in the Aug 4 +/- forecast window. 
In the chart, just like the SPY, the CMF broke above the red since July 27th and so far has stayed in the green as the OBOS indicator dropped in to the OS area. With rising price bottoms and a CMF in the green, this may allow for a rise into the next forecast high of Aug 13th.  Another post will be made as we get in that time frame.


Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. 
Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results