AAII Bullish %

Posted on Thursday, June 11, 2015 today's comments in Blue

AAII Bullish %

Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD. and writer of the market newsletter, UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE,  once wrote that the stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25.

Recent dates when the AAII Bullish % was less than 25.00
June 9,2011    24.40  - Sell off into Aug 2011 before continuing higher
May 16,2012  23.60  - Market continued higher
July 18,2012   22.20  - Market continued higher
April 10,2013 19.30  - Market continued higher
June 10,2015  20.00  - ???
July 1,2015     22.60
July 29,2015   21.10

Aug 5,2015     24.30

*The continuation of additional Bullish %'s below 25.00% so close together suggests that the market may rally 3-6 months out.  If Aubie Baltin is correct again, then it certainly agrees with the suggestions of the Intermediate term cycles. 


JustSignals posts for the intermediate cycles have been suggesting:
The intermediate forecast is for a top either on May 21+/- and or June 18-19+/- (both dates were accurate) with a potential correction into July 29+/- (also accurate).  The cycles then forecast a rally into November and or January.  Here is where it gets a little trickly.  At this point the short term cycles suggest some interruption in the Intermediate Term forecast.  The periods of Aug 13-19 +/- and Sept 13-26 +/- are areas that suggest a downward bias in the market.   If any other periods are noticed they will be posted ahead of time.

*Also note that September +/- is the weakest month of the year for the stock market and we are entering a period of weakness suggested by the Average 3rd Years of the Presidential Cycle and the Average 7th Years of the Presidential Cycle.

So, similar action subsequent to June 9,2011 is a good possibility at this point based on the suggestions of the intermediate cycles , short term cycles, September weakness, the Average 3rd Years of the Presidential Cycle and the Average 7th Years of the Presidential Cycle and Aubie Baltin's interpretation of the AAII Bullish %.

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 
Past performance is not indicative of future results