Chaikin charts: DIA IWM SPY QQQ

Last time these charts were posted was on August 6,2016

Review these past posts to get a better sense of the bigger picture
Post July 29,2016 - September is the weakest month of the year
Post August 12,2016 - Intermediate Term Cycles
Post August 17,2016 - 4 Year Cycle

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

DIA has been making lower lows and lower highs since May 19th so it is in a downtrend.
In the chart the CMF gained a little into the green as the OBOS indicator moved up in the OB area.  But the RS stayed firmly in the orange area.  What we want to see is a rising CMF in the green with a rising RS in the green for a healthy chart.  It is also best when accompanied by the price above the tan MA too, but, price is below it.

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

IWM has been making lower lows and lower highs since June 24th so it is in a down trend.
In the chart the CMF is barely moved into the green as the OBOS indicator moved into the OB area. This displays continued weakness.  Also note that the RS is still in the orange area and it has not been able to move up significantly. 

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

In the chart the CMF broke up and into the green since July 27th.   The CMF has stayed in the green as the OBOS indicator dropped in to the OS area and then bounced back up to the OB area which is positive.  The RS though is still firmly in the orange area and the price is below the tan MA.  This is an indication of a weak chart.

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

QQQ is the only chart in the four charts above that has been making higher lows and higher highs and the only chart that made a high in the Aug 4 +/- forecast window. 
In the chart, just like the SPY, the CMF broke above the red since July 27th and so far has stayed in the green as the OBOS indicator dropped in to the OS area.  What is not good is that the CMF and RS is declining as the price and OBOS indicator is rising.  This is a possible negative divergence.

Additional Notes
1-The stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25 and this happened 4 times this year between June & August
2-The data supports that September +/- is the worst period of the year which occurs just ahead of a historically positive November-December and or October, November, December, January period
3-Both the average 3rd years & 7th years of the Presidential cycle show several months of a mid year topping phase just before some market corrections in the September/October period and then a rally into the year end 
4-Fear Greed Index is in the extreme fear area.  This is a contrarian point of view.
5-The Intermediate Term Cycles are suggesting nothing different and still suggest a rally into November and or January.

The short term cycles from Aug 19-20 do suggest some chop & slop from Aug 21 -27 then grinding bias to the upside into Sept 13th and then some bias to the downside into Sept 26th.  From that point the cycles suggest bias to the upside into November and or January +/-.   More on this early in Sept2016.


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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results