Updated Intermediate Term Comments: (supported by info and data below)
1-The
stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish
reading is under 25 and this happened 4 times this year between June
& August
2-The data below supports that September +/- is the worst period of the year which occurs just ahead of a historically positive November-December and or October, November, December, January period
3-Both the average 3rd years & 7th years of the Presidential cycle
show several months of a mid year topping phase just before some market
corrections in the September/October period and then a rally into the
year end
4-Fear Greed Index is at 6 today. This is a contrarian point of view.
5-The Intermediate Term Cycles are suggesting nothing different and still suggest a rally into November and or January.
Note that cycles do NOT suggest that future suggested highs can be or will be higher or lower than past highs or that future suggested lows can be or will be lower or higher than past lows.
The following excerpts was posted on August 6,2015
JustSignals posts for the intermediate cycles have been suggesting:
The
intermediate forecast
is for a top either on May 21+/- and or June 18-19+/-
(both dates were accurate) with a potential
correction into July 29+/-
(also accurate). The cycles then forecast a rally into
November and or January.
Here is where it
gets a little trickly. At this point the short term cycles suggest some
interruption in the Intermediate Term forecast. The periods of Aug
13-19 +/- and Sept 13-26 +/- are areas that suggest a downward bias in
the market. If any other periods are noticed they will be posted ahead
of time.
*Also note that September +/- is the weakest
month of the year for the stock market and we are entering a period of
weakness suggested by the Average 3rd Years of the Presidential Cycle
and the Average 7th Years of the Presidential Cycle.
So, similar action subsequent to June 9,2011 is a good possibility at
this point based on the suggestions of the intermediate cycles
, short term cycles, September weakness, the Average 3rd Years of the Presidential Cycle and the Average 7th Years of the Presidential Cycle and Aubie
Baltin's interpretation of the AAII Bullish %.
Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD. and writer of the market newsletter,
UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE, once wrote that the stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25.
Recent dates when the AAII Bullish % was less than 25.00
June 9,2011 24.40 - Sell off into Aug 2011 before continuing higher
May 16,2012 23.60 - Market continued higher
July 18,2012 22.20 - Market continued higher
April 10,2013 19.30 - Market continued higher
June 10,2015 20.00 - ???
July 1,2015 22.60
July 29,2015 21.10
Aug 5,2015 24.30
The following excerpts was posted on July 29,2015
 |
| Courtesy of thepatternsite.com |
 |
| Courtesy of thepatternsite.com |
Data from moneychimp.com
Yrs Yrs Avg
Month Up Dn Gain/Loss
Jan 39 26 +0.94%
Feb 37 28 -0.13%
Mar 42 23 +1.10%
Apr 44 21 +1.36%
May 37 28 +0.11%
Jun 33 32 -0.07%
Jul 35 30 +0.83%
Aug 37 28 -0.18%
Sep 29 36 -0.65%
Oct 40 25 +0.68%
Nov 43 22 +1.37%
Dec 49 16 +1.59%
The data above supports that September is the worst month of the year
and that the best six months of the year is November to April.
The following excerpts was posted on June 19,2015
Today on Twitter there was a chart by SeeItMarket.com on the 7th year of
the Presidential cycle (this occurs when a President serves two
terms). In addition, their link takes you to an article which included
another chart on the 3rd year of the Presidential cycle. Both the 7th
year and the 3rd year of the Presidential cycles fall in this year,
2015.
Here are those charts.
 |
| courtesy of SeeItMarket.com |
Both of these charts show a rough several months just ahead before a
year end rally. Of course, both of these charts are the "averages" of
several 3rd and 7th years.
Intermediate Term Cycles Forecast:
The following is also similar to the 7 year Presidential chart above
June, July, August
+/- - high
IWM high June 24th
QQQ high July 20th
DJIA high May 19th
September, October
+/- - low
IWM low today so far
QQQ low July 7th so far
DJIA low today so far
The following excerpts was posted on August 11,,2015
Fear Greed Index = 6 ---> Last updated Aug 12,2015 at 11:54am
 |
| Courtesy of CNN Tuesday 8/11/15 at 3:31pm |
 |
| Courtesy of CNN |
The following excerpts was posted on June 9,2015
The
intermediate forecast
is for a top either on May 21+/- and or June 18-19+/- with a potential
correction into July 29+/-. The cycles then forecast a rally into
November and or January.
Keep checking for further updates
.
The dates forecast back on June 9,2015 turned out to be pretty accurate. The only date that did not hold was the low of July 29th. The low extended, so far, into August 2015.
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This
has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and
consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results
