Short Term Forecast

Review of the last Short Term Forecast Dates Made Oct 1st
- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)
1) Oct 2nd +/-
2) Oct 9th +/-
3) Oct 17th +/-

COMMENTS

From the low on Oct 2nd the DJIA was 16,674.04 to the high on Oct 9th at DJIA 16,989.37, there was a gain of 315.33 points or a 1.9% move.  The DJIA was marginally higher on Oct 6th at 17,099.39, so the forecast date of Oct 9th worked out well.  The next date was Oct 17th.  From the high on Oct 9th the DJIA sold off over 1,100 points to the Oct 15th bottom.  The market showed signs of a turn on Oct 16th and there was a big rally on Friday Oct 17th.  The DJIA lost 871 points between the Oct 9th top and the Oct 17th forecast bottom or  5.1%.  If you were able to catch part of that move you did very well.


Following cycles has been good to use as a guide or as a potential future road map, but, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast trend change date.  

 

NEW SHORT TERM FORECAST DATES

- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)
1) Oct 22nd-24th +/-
2) Oct 26th-28th +/-
3) Nov 7th +/-

For those of you that follow Elliott Waves, the SPY Weekly chart made a minimum count of 5 waves up from the March 2009 bottom to the Sept 2014 top.  The intraday chart of the SPY relabeled the EW count down from the Sept 19th top.  It was a minimum of 5 waves down and now the EW count is three waves down to the Oct 15th bottom.  It suggests that we are in a 4th wave counter trend rally now.   If these counts are correct it now suggests that the 4th wave should stall soon and resume the down trend and make a new low.  But, as usual, always watch your indicators for hints of market direction as an EW caount can change at anytime.
 
Since cycles do not distinguish between trading days and calendar days, the cycle dates may come out on Holidays or weekends.  So the dates suggested that do fall on such days are to be used as a window.   So, as always, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast cycle trends.  All forecast dates will still be noted with a "+/-" because the cycle dates are not always as perfect as we would like them to be.  Although they have been pretty accurate.   

Intermediate Term Forecast Trend Change Dates

Intermediate term cycles forecast for the last couple of months suggested that cycles were pointing up into September/October 2014 +/-, which turned out very accurate.

So far the DJIA made an all time high on Sept 19th and made a low on Oct 15th and lost 1495 DJIA points from the high to the low, -8.6%.

 
At this point the intermediate term cycles have an up bias into mid to late November and a down bias into December/January.

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 
Past performance is not indicative of future results

Short Term Comments

On Oct 1st the Short Term Forecast was:

UPDATED FORECAST - Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)
1) Oct 2nd +/-
2) Oct 9th +/-
3) Oct 17th +/-

The intraday SPY chart had a bottom on Oct 2nd. 
It then rallied into Oct 6th.  
Then it pulled back into Oct 8th and stopped at the Oct 2nd price level low.
From the Oct 8th bottom it rallied into the Oct 9th forecast date and topped at the Oct 6th price level.
From Oct 9th the market started a dramatic down trend and could potentially turn again on or about the next short term forecast date of Oct 17th +/-.


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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 
Past performance is not indicative of future results

Weekly SPY with Andrews Pitchforks

A picture is worth a thousand words !

Chart courtesy of eSignal

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 
Past performance is not indicative of future results

KO

Things go better with Coke (KO)
Except for the rest of the Dow30


Keep following JustSignals using Twitter or Follow By Email.   

Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage

 

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 
Past performance is not indicative of future results

Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast Trend Change Dates
The last forecast made on September 21st stated:
- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)
1) September 15th +/-
2) September 21st +/-
3) September 24th-28th
4) October 2nd +/-

Following cycles has been good to use as a guide or as a potential future road map, but, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast trend change date.  

COMMENTS

Friday Sept 12th - Monday Sept 15th the DJIA bottomed as the Sept 15th +/- forecast date suggested.
Friday Sept 19th the DJIA topped as the Sept 21st +/- forecast date suggested.
From Sept 23rd to Sept 29th there was a lot of market volatility with a very slight change in the closing DJIA of +15 points.  The forecast dates to watch were Sept 24th - Sept 28th.
The next date is Oct 2nd.  As of this writing the DJIA is down 207 points on Oct 1st at 1:00pm and over 500 points down from the Sept 19th high.

 

UPDATED FORECAST

- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)
1) Oct 2nd +/-
2) Oct 9th +/-
3) Oct 17th +/-

For those of you that follow Elliott Waves, the SPY Weekly chart made a minimum count of 5 waves up from the March 2009 bottom to the Sept 2014 top.  The 60 min. chart of the SPY today made a minimum 5 wave count down from the Sept 19th top.  If these counts are correct it now suggests a counter trend rally to take place soon.

Since cycles do not distinguish between trading days and calendar days, the cycle dates may come out on Holidays or weekends.  So the dates suggested that do fall on such days are to be used as a window.   So, as always, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast cycle trends.  All forecast dates will still be noted with a "+/-" because the cycle dates are not always as perfect as we would like them to be.  Although they have been pretty accurate.   

Intermediate Term Forecast Trend Change Dates

Intermediate term cycles are pointing up into September/October 2014 +/-.  

So far the DJIA made an all time high on Sept 19th.

A chart was posted on August 24,2014 showing the stock market corrections at the end of QE1 in 2010 and at the end of QE2 in 2011.  The third grey area goes out to October 2014 where the Fed announced the QE tapering should be ending.
Here is that chart again...

 
Is it a coincidence that the QE tapering is scheduled to end in October 2014 and the Intermediate term cycles forecast a top in September/October 2014 +/- ?

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter or Follow By Email.   

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 
Past performance is not indicative of future results