Short Term Forecast

Review of the last Short Term Forecast Dates Made Oct 1st
- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)
1) Oct 2nd +/-
2) Oct 9th +/-
3) Oct 17th +/-

COMMENTS

From the low on Oct 2nd the DJIA was 16,674.04 to the high on Oct 9th at DJIA 16,989.37, there was a gain of 315.33 points or a 1.9% move.  The DJIA was marginally higher on Oct 6th at 17,099.39, so the forecast date of Oct 9th worked out well.  The next date was Oct 17th.  From the high on Oct 9th the DJIA sold off over 1,100 points to the Oct 15th bottom.  The market showed signs of a turn on Oct 16th and there was a big rally on Friday Oct 17th.  The DJIA lost 871 points between the Oct 9th top and the Oct 17th forecast bottom or  5.1%.  If you were able to catch part of that move you did very well.


Following cycles has been good to use as a guide or as a potential future road map, but, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast trend change date.  

 

NEW SHORT TERM FORECAST DATES

- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)
1) Oct 22nd-24th +/-
2) Oct 26th-28th +/-
3) Nov 7th +/-

For those of you that follow Elliott Waves, the SPY Weekly chart made a minimum count of 5 waves up from the March 2009 bottom to the Sept 2014 top.  The intraday chart of the SPY relabeled the EW count down from the Sept 19th top.  It was a minimum of 5 waves down and now the EW count is three waves down to the Oct 15th bottom.  It suggests that we are in a 4th wave counter trend rally now.   If these counts are correct it now suggests that the 4th wave should stall soon and resume the down trend and make a new low.  But, as usual, always watch your indicators for hints of market direction as an EW caount can change at anytime.
 
Since cycles do not distinguish between trading days and calendar days, the cycle dates may come out on Holidays or weekends.  So the dates suggested that do fall on such days are to be used as a window.   So, as always, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast cycle trends.  All forecast dates will still be noted with a "+/-" because the cycle dates are not always as perfect as we would like them to be.  Although they have been pretty accurate.   

Intermediate Term Forecast Trend Change Dates

Intermediate term cycles forecast for the last couple of months suggested that cycles were pointing up into September/October 2014 +/-, which turned out very accurate.

So far the DJIA made an all time high on Sept 19th and made a low on Oct 15th and lost 1495 DJIA points from the high to the low, -8.6%.

 
At this point the intermediate term cycles have an up bias into mid to late November and a down bias into December/January.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter or Follow By Email.   

Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage

 

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 
Past performance is not indicative of future results