The second chart is a composite chart...
The third chart is the actual S&P500 YTD...
For many years the Stock Traders Almanac rated each year of the decade from best to worst...
Some years seem to follow the Moon chart best and some years follow the multi-decade composite best...
We prepare both charts and in some cases a few other charts as well, like the Bradley Indicator, and then see which chart the market seems to be following the best...
"So far" for 2011 the stock market seems to be following the multi-decade composite chart...
Don't discount the Moon chart altogether...look at the similar trend changes as compared to the YTD S&P500...
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme" - Mark Twain
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Interesting charts. They sure separate after May. It may depend a lot on what the FED does.
ReplyDeleteCycleguy...
ReplyDeleteIf you step back and look at the two charts you will see that after May one of the charts will probably invert as long as the other one is still forecasting the market correctly...