Buy and Hold vs Trading…in the Stock Market and the 18/36 Year Cycles

Buy and Hold vs Trading…in the Stock Market and the 18/36 Year Cycles

1910+18yrs = 1928 (buy & hold ends) + 18yrs =1946 (buy and hold starts)

1910 DJIA @ 57 to 1928 DJIA @ 280 = 391%  / 18yrs = 22% , based on the index in the initial year
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) = 9.25%

Note that in:

1929 the DJIA was @ 400

1932 the DJIA was @ 40

*From 1928 @ DJIA 280 to 1946 @ DJIA 170 was not a buy and hold period…

1946 +18 yrs=1964 (buy and hold ends) + 18yrs=1982 (buy and hold starts)

1946 DJIA @ 170 to 1964 DJIA @ 880 = 417%  / 18yrs = 23% , based on the index in the initial year
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) = 9.56%
Note that in:

1973 the DJIA was @ 1050

1974 the DJIA  was @ 600

*From 1964 @ DJIA 880 to 1982 @ DJIA 800 was not a buy and hold period…

1982+18yrs = 2000 (buy and hold ends) + 18yrs = 2018 (buy and hold starts)

1982 DJIA @ 800 to 2000 DJIA @ 10,500=1212% / 18yrs=67%, based on the index in the initial year
Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) = 15.38%
Note that in:

2007 the DJIA was @ 14,400

2009 the DJIA was  @  6,500

* The above does not preclude the DJIA from testing the 6,500 bottom of March 2009

*From 2000 @ DJIA 10,500 and forecast to 2018 @ DJIA forecast at 9,500 forecast not to be a buy and hold period…

2018   +   18yrs   =   2036 (buy and hold ends)

Forecast 2018 DJIA @ forecast 9,500 to forecast 2036 DJIA @ forecast 47,500 = 400% = avg of 22% per year (forecast based on the first and second scenarios above)
Forecast Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) = 9.25%

Although the above 18/36 year cycles forecast calls for the next Buy and Hold period to start in 2018, we are forecasting other projected bottoms to occur in 2014 and 2016...

In summary, there were periods where Buy and Hold of equities performed very well and there were periods where Buy and Hold of equities was not the preferred asset class  investment...
During the Buy and Hold period equities were the asset of choice...
During the Non-Buy and Hold period Gold was one asset of choice...
In the current Non-Buy and Hold period (2000-2018), so far, Gold has also been the asset of choice...

Past performance is not indicative of future results.