Wednesday, January 18, 2017

chart: S&P500 returns since 1928

Courtesy of @CharlieBilello / Pension Partners
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Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart: daily SPY

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday, January 17, 2017

Michigan Consumer Sentiment

AdvisorPerspectives.com
By Jill Mislinski, 1/13/17

MICHIGAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT, January Mostly Unchanged

The University of Michigan Preliminary Consumer Sentiment for January came in at 98.1, down fractionally from the December Final reading. Investing.com had forecast 98.5.

Courtesy of AdvisorPerspectives.com
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Past performance is not indicative of future results

GS Kostin sees only 90 good days

Why Goldman sees only 90 good days for U.S. stocks in 2017

Published: Jan 16, 2017 6:15 a.m. ET

U.S. stocks have had an incredible run over the last two months and even at these record-breaking levels there are still profits to make — at least until March, when it will be time to run for the hills.
That’s a key message from Goldman Sachs chief U.S. equity strategist David Kostin, who says optimism over expected tax reforms from the Trump administration is likely to push the S&P 500 index SPX, +0.18%  to 2,400 by the end of the first quarter. That implies a 6% upside from current levels and a 12% jump from just before Donald Trump won the presidential election in November.
“How to make money investing in a market that is generally highly valued? The path of the market suggests you need to make money in the first 90 days of this year,” Kostin said at a conference in London on Monday. “The key driver is the idea that there’ll be these corporate tax reforms.”

Courtesy of MarketWatch.com


 But investors are too optimistic when it comes to how low Trump can actually cut taxes and that will scupper the rally from the second quarter, Kostin warned.

“My expectation is that investors are giving more credence to the idea of tax reform than perhaps what is ultimately going to take place,” Kostin added.
“The debate over the federal deficit is going to kick off in March and there’ll be recognition that if all these proposals were to go through, there would be a significant increase in the size of the deficit. It’s not clear that could go through Congress,” he said.

Investors could get more clarity on Trump’s tax plans when he hosts his first press conference since July on Wednesday.
Trump has proposed to cut corporate taxes to around 15% from the current 35%. While that is seen as boosting company earnings, the federal deficit could balloon by 60% and reach $1 trillion in 2017, according to Goldman. The deficit stood around $600 billion in 2016.
“The deficit creates some limitations on how much of that can implemented. So maybe at the end of the day, the earnings revisions are not as significant as some of the investors now think,” Kostin said.
After peaking at 2,400 in March, Goldman expects the S&P to end 2017 around 2,300.

 Kostin stressed, however, that he does expect Trump to succeed with some tax reforms, which should benefit companies that pay the highest effective tax rates. In a December research note, Goldman mentioned CarMax Inc. KMX, +0.54%  , Monster Beverage Corp. MNST, +3.25%  , Hess Corp. HES, +0.07%  and Charles Schwab Corp. SCHW, +0.36%  as companies that are likely to benefit.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results








Friday, January 13, 2017

charts by ChaikinAnalytics: DIA, SPY, QQQ, IWM, SLY

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
Charts from ChaikinAnalytics.com were recently posted on Jan 4,2016.   The OverBought/OverSold (OB/OS) indicators on Jan 4th were primarily OS.  On most of the charts above the OB/OS indicator has a bias being OB.   But the market has not made much of an advance since Jan 4th.  This suggests weakness in the market.  Also note the trend lines drawn on the charts above.  Most of them are either flat to down.   Note the trend lines drawn on the CMF.

Chaikin Money Flow - Conclusions by StockCharts.com
Chaikin Money Flow is an oscillator that measures buying and selling pressure over a set period of time. At its most basic, money flow favors the bulls when CMF is positive and the bears when negative. Chartists looking for quicker money flow shifts can look for bullish and bearish divergences. Be careful though. Selling pressure still has the edge in negative territory, even when there is a bullish divergence. This bullish divergence simply shows less selling pressure. It takes a move into positive territory to indicate actual buying pressure. As an money flow oscillator, CMF can be used in conjunction with pure price oscillators, such as MACD or RSI. As with all indicators, Chaikin Money Flow should not be used as a stand-alone indicator. Marc Chaikin also developed the Accumulation Distribution Line and the Chaikin Oscillator.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results



Thursday, January 12, 2017

chart: VIX and the BB width

Courtesy of @vixsquared

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Wednesday, January 11, 2017

chart: FTSE & S&P500 Similar Price Pattern

Courtesy of Worden Bros.
On November 8,2016 charts of the FTSE & the DJIA were shown prior to Brexit and prior to Election Day.  The price pattern is also very similar.  Go to the following link to see.

http://justsignals.blogspot.com/2016/11/charts-ftse-brexit-vs-djia-election-comp.html

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results