Tuesday, September 27, 2016

chart: Silver


Below looks at a chart on Silver, dating back to the early 1970’s. Silver created an important top at $50 in 1980, did it create another important top at the same price in 2011?
Courtesy of KimbleChartingSolutions.com

Silver hit $50 in 2011, which was the highs back in 1980 and since then, has created a series of lower highs and lower lows.
Silver is now testing a bunch of resistance lines and its Fibonacci 61% retracement level at (1), with bullish sentiment at lofty readings.
For Silver to break free from its trend of lower highs and lower lows, it needs to take out this “resistance bunch” to do so.
The Silver “Risk On” trade does not want to see selling take place below this key price zone at (1).

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepageThis has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Sunday, September 25, 2016

Picasso Cycle Dates Upddate

The following was posted on August 25,2016.
The Picasso Cycle Dates have been working very well recently.
The next group of Picasso Cycle Dates will be posted shortly.


In this update only the dates will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low with amplitude as sometimes shown on the chart.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the amplitude and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.

Picasso Dates, always +/-
8/31-9/3* H
9/17 L
9/20-26 H
10/5-9 L

* Note that 9/3 is an Anniversary Date of the 1929 high on 9/3/1929


Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepageThis has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

chart: SPY & Tom DeMark's REI

The following chart is the weekly SPY.  Below is the REI (range expansion index by Tom DeMark)


Weekly SPY
Green bars & Blue Circle - Over Sold and in an area where bottoms form

The Description
The DeMark Range Expansion Index is a market-timing oscillator described in DeMark on Day Trading Options, by T.R. DeMark and T.R. Demark, Jr., McGraw Hill, 1999. The oscillator is arithmetically calculated and is designed to overcome problems with exponentially calculated oscillators, like MACD. The TD REI oscillator typically produces values of -100 to +100 with 45 or higher indicating overbought conditions and -45 or lower indicating oversold. DeMark advises against trading in extreme overbought or oversold conditions indicated by six or more bars above or below the 45 thresholds. For more information on using TD REI the user is referred to the DeMark text.
 
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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results
 

Friday, September 16, 2016

charts: McClellan Osc Hi Yld Bd A-D & SP500

Chart In Focus, by Tom McClellan
McClellan Oscillator for High Yield Bond A-D Data

September 14, 2016

The regular McClellan Oscillator is based on Advance-Decline (A-D) data for the NYSE.  But the same calculation can be done on other sets of A-D data.  This week’s chart looks at an interesting example of that, with a big message for the current moment.
The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) kindly publishes data on Advances and Declines for corporate bonds, breaking out totals for Investment Grade, High Yield, and Convertible.  Each category is interesting in its own right, but I find the High Yield numbers the most interesting, perhaps because of the strong correlation that such bonds have to the movements of the stock market. 
This particular version of the McClellan Oscillator for High Yield Bonds is calculated the same way as for the NYSE A-D data.  But because the number of issues traded are different for each market, the raw scaling is therefore necessarily going to be different.  
Once we get past that notion of scaling, and just focus on the chart itself, we can pretty easily see where “high” and “low” readings are.  

 I drew a horizontal line at the arbitrarily chosen level of -75 to help focus the eye on the situation we see right now.  Very low readings below that line tend to reliably be associated with meaningful bottoms for the SP500 I should caution that the notion of “meaningful” bottoms does not mean the same thing as “final” bottoms. 
But such bottoms are usually followed by meaningful bounces, if not outright up moves.  That is the important message.  What we are seeing with this very low reading is a message that the stock market is at a meaningful bottom and ought to see a brief pop, at a minimum.  What happens after that is a more difficult question to address.

It is not only the McClellan Oscillator for these data which has merit.  A raw Advance-Decline Line (A-D Line) can have value on its own, when it signals a trend change. 

When the High Yield Corporate Bond A-D Line crosses through a long trendline, it is a pretty darned good signal of a trend change.  Some examples are shown in this second chart. 
This is important now because we have just seen such a crossing, this time below the rising bottoms line that dates back to the Feb. 2016 low.  That line has been fairly authoritatively broken, and now this A-D Line is also threatening to close below its own 5% Trend (AKA 39-day EMA), an act which would add further confirmation of a trend change. 
High yield bonds had come back into fashion in 2016, as the central banks’ policies of zero or negative interest rate policy has pushed investors into more risky assets.  The pendulum appears to be swinging back again, although it has swung really far already on the first push, as evidenced by the extremely negative McClellan Oscillator reading shown above.  That says the initial down leg may have gone too far too fast all at once.
But the broken uptrend lines says we are seeing a significant trend change getting started right now.  Both messages are worth acknowledging.
Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report
www.mcoscillator.com
(253) 581-4889 

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday, September 15, 2016

chart: SPY vs 10dma Highs-Lows



Notice that positive and negative divergences work pretty well.
Waiting for the next one...

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Friday, September 9, 2016

chart: SPY 30min signals

Courtesy of TradeStation.com
The SPY 30min chart gave some great signals and is still on a sell at 3:15pm today.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart: Storm Coming?

Courtesy of Bloomberg TV
On Sept 2,2016 this chart of the JPY/BGN Currency, was shown on Bloomberg TV.  The moving averages (MA) are the 12 month MA & the 24 month MA.   It suggests that when the 12 month MA crosses the 24 month MA some type of crisis occurs as noted in this chart.  The green arrow shows that another cross over has occurred again.  

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results