Thursday, May 25, 2017

SentimenTrader noticed this !

Saw this on Twitter today !

Courtesy of Twitter and SentimenTrader


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Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Review of Picasso LT Cycles

From May 17,2017 post
Long term indicators appear positive, so far.  Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside.  So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
In addition, the LT cycles appear to have shifted.  The LT cycles now suggest a high around April-June +/-, a low in August +/- & a high in November +/-. 
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.



Comments on the above
Since we are now past the middle window of a suggested high around April-June+/-, we are now watching very carefully for a breakdown on the Daily chart and a confirmation on the Weekly chart.
This will tell us "if "and "when" an August +/- low will happen or may happen.

*If this low does occur, based on other indicators such as, the Zweig Breadth Thrust of Nov.2016, the current Advance Decline Line highs, Sam Stovall's Jan & Feb Indicator, new Margin Debt highs, Picasso's Long Term Cycles, the AAII Bullish percentage dipped below 25,  then we "should" expect the market to be a buying opportunity.
The items just mentioned were discussed in detail in posts made over the last 12 months on the Blog.
  
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday, May 18, 2017

AAII Bullish %

Dr. Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD., Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33418, and writer of the market newsletter, UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE,  once wrote that the stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25.

Recent dates when the AAII Bullish % was less than 25.00
June 9,2011    24.40  - Sell off into Aug 2011 before continuing higher
May 16,2012  23.60  - Market continued higher
July 18,2012   22.20  - Market continued higher
April 10,2013 19.30  - Market continued higher
June 10,2015  20.00  - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 5 months later
July 1,2015     22.60  - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 4 months later
July 29,2015   21.10  - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 3 months later
Aug 5,2015     24.30  - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 3 months later
Dec 16,2015   23.90  - Sell off into Jan 2016, but higher level 4-6 months later
May 4,2016    22.30  - Market continued higher
Sep 21,2016   24.83  - Market continued higher
*May 17,2017  23.90  - ???

Bullish %'s below 25.00% suggests that the market may rally 3-6 months out.  If Aubie Baltin is correct again, then it certainly agrees with the suggestions of the Picasso Long Term Cycles of a August low (*May plus 3 months) and a November high (*May plus 6 months).

JustSignals posts for the Long Term Cycles have been suggesting:
Long term indicators appear positive, so far.  Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside.  So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
In addition, the LT cycles appear to have shifted.  The LT cycles now suggest a high around April-June +/-, a low in August +/- & a high in November +/-. 
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.
 
*Also note that a change in trend took place in the month of August in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016.  Will it happen again in 2017 as Picasso Long Term Cycles suggest?


Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday, May 17, 2017

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date. 

Picasso Dates, always +/- 
Mar 3-14 H - high occurred on Mar 15th
Mar 20-28 L - possible low occurring in this time frame - Low occurred on March 27th
Apr 10-13 H (+/-) - high occurred on April 5th & later on Apr 10th
Apr 4/21-24 L (+/-) - lows occurred on April 13th, 18th, 19th, 21st
Apr 28- May8 H - highs on April 26th & May 9th...only 3 day correction, then grinded higher
May 21 L 
May 25-June 1 H
June 10-19 L

Comments
See new comments in blue above and below.

Long term indicators appear positive, so far.  Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside.  So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
In addition, the LT cycles appear to have shifted.  The LT cycles now suggest a high around April-June +/-, a low in August +/- & a high in November +/-. 
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday, May 10, 2017

Glenn Neely from NEoWave

The following email was sent recently from Glenn Neely of NEoWave, Inc.
It is one persons opinion, so JustSignals is providing charts of each of these dates, below along with a few comments.

By Glenn Neely:
In the last 35-years, there have been ONLY 4 occasions when I was certain a stock market crash was coming – they were the high in 1987, the high in 2000 (the internet bubble), the end of the real estate boom in early 2008 and the high made August 2015. In ALL cases, a massive decline followed.

At this time, based on all the things I know about the U.S. stock market (current Wave structure implications, U.S. margin debt, insider traders selling stock, overbought warnings from my Moat Index, a rising interest rate environment and the volume of new accounts being opened at brokerage firms in 2017 around the country), THIS is the FIRST TIME since August 2015 that I'm VERY concerned a "Stock Market Crash" is just 1-3 months away.

The two ingredients currently missing from the typical setup for a major market top is volatility (which is normally high at major tops and bottoms) and widespread media coverage. With those two elements absent, the S&P might need to undergo a violent "blow off" in the next 1-2 months. Such behavior will increase volatility and definitely get the attention of the main stream media.

Whether the S&P soars to new highs over the next 1-2 months and volatility increases OR the S&P simply sells off and begins a violent decline from a lower high, the odds are EXTREMELY HIGH - in the next 1-3 months - that the U.S. stock market will experience its largest, fastest decline in 10 years! That violent drop will be the start of a 2-4 year bear market that retraces at least 50% of the 2009-2017 bull market. If you look at the attached long-term (6-monthly) chart, you can see my best guess at Wave structure back to 2000's high and the S&P current position and what I expect (the red-dashed line). Keep in mind, a "blow off" advance of 5-10% might occur this month or next BEFORE the crash begins. Either way, I'm fairly confident a multi-year bear market will begin in 2017.

We can only guess what might instigate the next bear market but many possibilities exist. The Fed continuing to raise interest rates historically is enough. The tensions between North Korea, China, the U.S. and Russia is another factor. Massive borrowing by U.S. corporations to buy their own stock, which will eventually have to be paid back, is another concern. Eventually, the cause of the bear market will be decided but, in the mean time, you should prepare.

To help you navigate the coming bear market, we are offering a 25% discount on all NEoWave Trading and Forecasting services. To receive your discount, please contact  Magelan@neowave.com 

Sincerely,
Glenn Neely
NEoWave, Inc.
Email: magelan@neowave.com

The following charts & comments are provided by JustSignals

1987 daily DJIA - Courtesy of Worden Bros.

2000 weekly SPY - Courtesy of eSignal

2008 weekly SPY - Courtesy of eSignal

2015, 2016, 2017 weekly SPY - Courtesy of eSignal
The charts above are from each date that Glenn Neely mentioned. 
In each of these charts for each date Glenn Neely mentioned, there were warning signs before the correction.  If you look carefully at the current period in the last chart, there aren't any similar warning signs appearing yet.  Although there are some recent posts here that do suggest some weakness developing in the stock market.

Glenn Neely is a respected market technician with many innovative tools that have made many good calls in the stock market and since he said "THIS is the FIRST TIME since August 2015 that I'm VERY concerned a "Stock Market Crash" is just 1-3 months away",  this will be watched very carefully !!! 

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday, May 9, 2017

chart: SPY vs Hi-Lo 10dma ! MUST SEE !


This chart is self explanatory !
See the negative divergence ?

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday, May 4, 2017

charts: S&P500 with buy & sell signals

Courtesy of Worden Bros.

Courtesy of Worden Bros.
The S&P500 is shown with 1)McClellan Summation Index, and 2)% of stocks above the 40DMA.
Each is self explanatory and each is at a possible Change In Trend as shown as of today's price bar.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results