Sunday, December 4, 2016

Picasso Cycle Dates

In this update only the dates will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low with amplitude as sometimes shown on the chart.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the amplitude and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.
 




Comments
The Picasso short term cycle dates have not been posted here for almost two months.  This is because the cycles have not been suggesting any short term swings.  Instead they have displayed much volatility and noise.  Hopefully this has all past.


Picasso Dates, always +/-
Dec 5 H
Dec 9-14 L (Dec 14*)
Dec 17-30 H (Dec 30*)
Jan 5-6 L

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepageThis has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday, December 1, 2016

chart: Indices Performance

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com
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Tom McClellan - Trump rally will end

How will stocks perform once Trump takes office?  

The market may be rallying on President-elect Donald Trump's victory, but one market expert told CNBC he expects that to end after Inauguration Day.

That's because that has been the pattern when a new president from a different party takes office, said Tom McClellan, editor of the McClellan Market Report.
After the election, hopefulness and euphoria usually sends stocks higher because "everybody assumes that whatever's wrong is going to get changed or fixed by the new guy even though nobody's doing anything yet in terms of governing," he said in an interview with "Closing Bell" on Tuesday.
However, the morning after the inauguration, people realize the problems still exist and it will take longer to fix them, he noted.
"That tends to bum everyone out and so they sell their stocks."
And that's not the only thing that can discourage investors, according to McClellan.
Typically, a new president from a different party finds that things are worse than he said during the campaign, and the only solution is whatever package of tax cuts or tax hikes or spending he wants to get through Congress, McClellan explained.
"Investors don't like to hearing that things are worse than we expected and that tends to depress prices during the first year of a new term."
Trump will be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States on Jan. 20.

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1st Day of the Month Gains

DJIA gains more on first day than all other days 

Over the last 15 1/4 years the Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained more points on the first trading days of all months than all other days combined. While the Dow has gained 5481.72 points between September 2, 1997 (7622.42) and December 31, 2012 (13104.14), 5323.19 points were gained on the first trading days of these 184 months. The remaining 3674 trading days combined gained just 158.53 points during the period. This averages out to gains of 28.93 points on first days, in contrast to only 0.04 points on all others. See Table 1.

Note that September 1997 through October 2000 racked up a total gain of 2632.39 Dow points on the first trading days of these 38 months (winners except for seven occasions). But between November 2000 and September 2002, when the 2000-2002 bear markets did the bulk of their damage, frightened investors switched from pouring money into the market on that day to pulling it out in fourteen months out of twenty-three. This netted a 404.80 Dow point loss. The 2007-2009 bear market lopped off 964.14 Dow points on first days in 17 months from November 2007 to March 2009. First days had their worst year in 2011, declining seven times for a total loss of 644.45 Dow points.

First days of June have performed worst. Triple digit declines in four of the last five years have resulted in the worst net loss. August is the second net loser. In rising market trends, first days perform much better as institutions are likely anticipating strong performance at each month’s outset. S&P 500 first days track the Dow’s pattern closely but NASDAQ first days are not as strong with weakness in April, August, and October.


Courtesy of Jeffrey A. Hirsch
 For more information contact
 JEFFREY A. HIRSCH, editor-in-chief of the Stock Trader's Almanac and Almanac Investor newsletter, and the author of The Little Book of Stock Market Cycles (Wiley, 2012).
 www.stocktradersalmanac.com

 

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Tuesday, November 29, 2016

charts: 3 Peaks & a Domed House

Courtesy of @ThinkTankCharts, as of Nov 23,2016
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chart: 1st Termer from New Party

Courtesy of McClellan Financial Publications
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Past performance is not indicative of future results

great chart: Earl & Earl2

LunaticTrader.com
By Danny

Stocks have kept going up and the Nasdaq is reaching the 5400 level, as we suggested it would in our post two weeks ago. So, what's next? Let's have a look at the S&P 500 chart:

We stay in a lunar green period for the rest of the week, so we can prepare for some kind of top in the coming days.
Technically the S&P 500 is facing several overhead resistance levels between 2220 and 2300. I don't think we are going to race straight through them, but of course I could be wrong.
My Earl indicator (blue line) has turned down already, and the MoM is entering the "euphoric" +8 zone. As you can see in the chart MoM reaching +8 often marks major peaks, which are typically followed by a significant pullback or by several months of sideways churning. MoM reaching -8 typically marks tradeable bottoms. Nothing is perfect but this is something that works pretty persistently in any market. MoM indicator for various markets and stocks is posted on my Twitter every day.
On the plus side the slower Earl2 (orange line) is still climbing healthily and appears in no mood to turn down already. This could be enough to hold up the market into year's end. It makes it more likely that we will get sideways action with only marginal new highs being printed in December. So, that is my current base scenario.

Danny | November 28, 2016 at 1:38 pm

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results