Monday, September 11, 2017

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date. 

Picasso Dates, always +/- 
Mar 3-14 H - high occurred on Mar 15th
Mar 20-28 L - possible low occurring in this time frame - Low occurred on March 27th
Apr 10-13 H (+/-) - high occurred on April 5th & later on Apr 10th
Apr 4/21-24 L (+/-) - lows occurred on April 13th, 18th, 19th, 21st
Apr 28- May8 H - highs on April 26th & May 9th...only 3 day correction, then grinded higher
May 21 L  - actual low 2 TD's early on May18
May 25-June 1 H - June 1 hit a high then grinded marginally higher to June 9
June 10-19 L - actual low June 16
June 28-July3 H - June 26th high near this time frame - DJIA high, so far, July 3rd
July 7-14 L - low was July 11
July 19-28 H - So far, SPY 7/27 H, QQQ 7/27 H, IWM 7/25 H
Aug 4-12 L  - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H
Sept 29-Oct 5 L

Comments
The Picasso Cycle dates have been working well lately.  Let it continue !

Long term indicators appear positive, so far.  Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside.  So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
So far this forecast came to pass.  The August low was accurate.  Although September does not have a good reputation and the Picasso Cycle dates are forecasting a low Sept 29-Oct 5 +/-.
 
In addition, the LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, & a high in November +/-. 
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.
The LT Cycle low suggested for August was shallow.  The DJIA high was 22,179 and the DJIA low was 21,600.   This was a 2.6% correction.  Not much, but, it was a correction as forecasted nevertheless.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday, September 6, 2017

chart: q and CAPE, valuations

Courtesy of Andrew Smithers/Smithers & Co
This chart is self explanatory.
Yup, second highest CAPE and third highest q in 100 years.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

AAII Bullish % predicts...

Dr. Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD., Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33418, and writer of the market newsletter, UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE,  once wrote that the stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25.

Recent dates when the AAII Bullish % was less than 25.00
June 9,2011    24.40  - Sell off into Aug 2011 before continuing higher
May 16,2012  23.60  - Market continued higher
July 18,2012   22.20  - Market continued higher
April 10,2013 19.30  - Market continued higher
June 10,2015  20.00  - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 5 months later
July 1,2015     22.60  - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 4 months later
July 29,2015   21.10  - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 3 months later
Aug 5,2015     24.30  - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 3 months later
Dec 16,2015   23.90  - Sell off into Jan 2016, but higher level 4-6 months later
May 4,2016    22.30  - Market continued higher
Sep 21,2016   24.83  - Market continued higher
May 17,2017  23.90 - Market continued higher
Aug 30,2017  25.00  ???

Bullish %'s below 25.00% suggests that the market may rally 3-6 months out.  If Aubie Baltin is correct again, then it certainly agrees with the suggestions of the Picasso Long Term Cycles of a  November high (*Aug plus 3 months).

JustSignals posts for the Long Term Cycles have been suggesting:
Long term indicators appear positive, so far.   
The LT cycles now suggest a high in November +/-. 
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.
 
*Also note that a change in trend took place in the month of August in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016.  Will it happen again in 2017 as Picasso Long Term Cycles suggest?



Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Is GE a Predictor of the Market?

GE is the only original stock left in the DJIA.

By Investopedia
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was created in 1896 by Charles Dow and originally consisted of 12 companies: American Cotton Oil, American Sugar, American Tobacco, Chicago Gas, Distilling & Cattle Feeding, General Electric, Laclede Gas, National Lead, North American, Tennessee Coal and Iron, U.S. Leather pfd. and U.S. Rubber. At the time, these companies represented each sector of the market and thus the Dow Jones illustrated the overall performance of the market in the United States.

At the end of a recession created by the collapse of Philadelphia and Reading Railroads in 1893, these companies represented the stronghold of the United States. Even with the trouble from the railroads, coal remained the dominant fuel for transportation, while gas and electric were growing in demand. Crops were a major export and source of revenue for the economy, while also providing sustenance.

As the country's industrial age came to a close, electricity became the dominant energy source that led to numerous technological advancements. The economy shifted toward providing more consumer goods. With these changes, all but General Electric ceased to exist. In 1929, the Dow Jones was expanded to include the 30-company list known as of August 2014. The 30 companies have changed over the years, but the index still represents a wide section of the U.S. market. However, with so few companies listed in the index, it can only truly reflect about a quarter of the overall market. Even with this small list, the DJIA is still able to accurately reflect trends across the broad market.
 
By JustSignals
With this being said, and the stock market looking like it is laboring, below please find a monthly chart of GE for your review.
As we noticed, there are caution signs.  Similar indicators are falling now as they did in the DotCom and Financial Crisis time frames.
Take a look.  In each of the red circle areas, the price dropped below the MA's, MACD was on a sell signal and the histogram went below zero.  At other times, all three did not occur.
Is this going to be another sign that the stock market going to be in trouble in the months ahead?

Courtesy of Worden Bros.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results
 
 
 
 

Thursday, August 31, 2017

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date. 

Picasso Dates, always +/- 
Mar 3-14 H - high occurred on Mar 15th
Mar 20-28 L - possible low occurring in this time frame - Low occurred on March 27th
Apr 10-13 H (+/-) - high occurred on April 5th & later on Apr 10th
Apr 4/21-24 L (+/-) - lows occurred on April 13th, 18th, 19th, 21st
Apr 28- May8 H - highs on April 26th & May 9th...only 3 day correction, then grinded higher
May 21 L  - actual low 2 TD's early on May18
May 25-June 1 H - June 1 hit a high then grinded marginally higher to June 9
June 10-19 L - actual low June 16
June 28-July3 H - June 26th high near this time frame - DJIA high, so far, July 3rd
July 7-14 L - low was July 11
July 19-28 H - So far, SPY 7/27 H, QQQ 7/27 H, IWM 7/25 H
Aug 4-12 L  - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - so far, a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H

Comments
See new comments in blue above and below.

Long term indicators appear positive, so far.  Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside.  So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
In addition, the LT cycles still suggest a low in August +/- & a high in November +/-. 
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.
The LT Cycle low suggested for August was shallow.  The DJIA high was 22,179 and the DJIA low was 21,600.   This was a 2.6% correction.  Not much, but, it was a correction as forecasted nevertheless.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday, August 23, 2017

charts: Fear & Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN/Money

Courtesy of CNN/Money
The stock market is oversold, BUT, there could still be some more downside or chop.
Watch your indicators carefully for buy signals.  We should be closer to a low than to a high with a Fear & Greed Index reading below 20.


Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results
 

Tuesday, August 15, 2017

Picasso Cycle Update

In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date. 

Picasso Dates, always +/- 
Mar 3-14 H - high occurred on Mar 15th
Mar 20-28 L - possible low occurring in this time frame - Low occurred on March 27th
Apr 10-13 H (+/-) - high occurred on April 5th & later on Apr 10th
Apr 4/21-24 L (+/-) - lows occurred on April 13th, 18th, 19th, 21st
Apr 28- May8 H - highs on April 26th & May 9th...only 3 day correction, then grinded higher
May 21 L  - actual low 2 TD's early on May18
May 25-June 1 H - June 1 hit a high then grinded marginally higher to June 9
June 10-19 L - actual low June 16
June 28-July3 H - June 26th high near this time frame - DJIA high, so far, July 3rd
July 7-14 L - low was July 11
July 19-28 H - So far, SPY 7/27 H, QQQ 7/27 H, IWM 7/25 H
Aug 4-12 L  - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H 
Aug 30-Sept 7 L
 

Comments
See new comments in blue above and below.

Long term indicators appear positive, so far.  Negative divergence on many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now suggest further upside.  So, if pullbacks develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
In addition, the LT cycles still suggest a low in August +/- & a high in November +/-. 
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  Past performance is not indicative of future results