First Half of a Decade Low

Going back 100 years and looking for:
1) "THE" low in the first half of a decade
2) Starting each decade search with the year ending in "1" and ending the search with the last year ending in "0" (1-10)

The following observations were made:

Lows in the first half of a decade were made in:
1921 with an 8 year rally into the 1929 high
1932 with a 5 year rally into the 1937 high 
1942 with a 4 year rally into the 1946 high, which some might call a consolidation and the rally continued way up into the 1966 high, with other consolidations along the way
1951 with a 5 year rally into the 1956 high, which some might call a consolidation and the rally continued way up into the 1966 high, with other consolidations along the way
1962 with a 4 year rally into the 1966 high
1974 with a 2 year rally into the 1976 high
1982 with a 5 year rally into the 1987 high
1991 with an 8 year rally into the 1999 high (some indexes made highs in 2000)
2002 with a 5 year rally into the 2007 high
2011 with a 7 year rally into the 2018 high, SO FAR !  Maybe this will also turn into an 8 year rally as it did from 1921-1929 and from 1991-1999 and the stock market makes an ATH in 2019...
Based on the above, 66% chance of a high in 2019...

So what did this tell us?
1) Most of the lows made in the first half of a decade were major lows with a big rally to follow
2) Only two lows were revisited. The 1921 low was revisited by 1932 and the 2002 low was revisited by 2009.
3) That is 2x out of 10x for an 80% probability never to see that low again
4) Lows that occurred in the years ending in a "1" have a greater probability of a longer subsequent rally afterwards, 7-8 years or maybe longer as in 1951
5) Lows that occurred in the years ending in a "2" seem to have more predictability with a 4-5 year rally afterwards
6)  The 20 year cycle appears to be important in the recent past.   Lows were made in 1942, 1962, 1982 and 2002.  So if history repeats will we have another major low in 2022?  Or will it be in 2021 because most of the lows, with the exception of 1974, occurred in either the first or second year of the decade.
7) The last comment to be made, since major lows have been made in the first half of each of the decades over the last 100 years, did we make a top in 2018 or will we be making a higher top in 2019?  Or even in 2020?

 "History does not repeat itself but it often rhymes" - Mark Twain


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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.