NYSE Margin Debt

One observation is that there seems to be a correlation between margin debt (investor positive and negative credit balances) and the S&P500

Second observation is that high margin debt tops out before the S&P500 and the converse was observed as well

Charts last posted here on March 9,2014 and updated today

Charts courtesy of dshort.com

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Short Term Update

Change in Trend (CIT)  

Short Term CIT forecast Update
The last forecast made stated "Today's sell off (May14th) was not at or lower than the May 7th and May 9th lows so far this month.  At this point the cycles should bottom this week and then have an upward bias into the end of May."

UPDATE - Well the next day, May15th, we took out the May 7th low and the mid month low forecasted worked out.  Now, the upward bias into the end of the month, in cycle terms, works out to be May 28th +/-

After May 28th, the next forecasted lows are June 13th & July 6th with a bounce in between. 

There is no change in the Intermediate Term forecast 
Intermediate term cycles are currently pointing down into July 2014 +/-.
So this may prevent some rallies from materializing, but if they do occur, some investors may take advantage of these rallies and sell into them.
We continue to witness this type of action.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rober W. Colby WARNING!

Courtesy of Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc.

WARNING !

Now is the time to Reduce Risk and Focus on Capital Preservation
Our Safety First Portfolio Is Outperforming Stocks
Bonds are Bullish, Stocks are Vulnerable
The data clearly show that the move to Safety has already begun. The table below shows that over the latest 4 1/2 months, our Safety First Portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 significantly.

Portfolio/Index 2014  YTD (through 1:00PM EDT today) Strategy   Data Sheet
Safety First Portfolio                +12.39                   Absolute Return  Safety First                               S&P 500 Index Total Return +1.72%

US Bonds Confirm Bullish Trend    

Long-term, Medium-term, and Inflation Protected U.S. Treasury Bonds rose to their highest level in 10 months today, and are all systematically bullish based on our analysis.

Introducing our Dynamic Allocation Shift Capability  

We now have the ability to shift your money from our Stock Portfolios to our Safety First Portfolio when the stock market turns down (bearish.)  That way, we can focus on capital preservation.  Since the safest investments often rise when risky stocks fall in price, reflecting the shifts of giant, multi-billion dollar institutional portfolios, the safest investments actually can make money for you even when stocks go down.

We can then shift your money back to stocks when the market improves and moves upward (bullish)... Automatically.... based on Robert W. Colby's Systematic Trend Identification Methods.

Be prepared for unforeseen Black Swan financial "accidents"

Posted here on April 16,2014 "JNK:TLH Ratio - Where are we now" ?

Below is an update of that chart...

The 3 year chart

The 1 year chart

Note in the 3 year chart that the red line crossed over the blue line in June 2011.
The same thing happened again in April2014, look at the 1 year chart above.
Although it also happened in May 2012, it was after the 2011 sell off and indicators were over sold and bullish at that time.

Watch your indicators carefully and note that the Intermediate Term Cycles posted on this blog are still pointed down in to July 2014. 

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Short Term CIT Forecast Update

Change in Trend (CIT)  

Short Term CIT forecast Update
The last forecast made stated "Currently the next CIT appears to be a window of April 26th to May 1st and possibly a top with a probable sell off into mid May."

Today's sell off was not at or lower than the May 7th and May 9th lows so far this month.

At this point the cycles should bottom this week and then have an upward bias into the end of May.

There is no change in the Intermediate Term forecast 
Intermediate term cycles are currently pointing down into July 2014 +/-.
So this may prevent some rallies from materializing, but if they do occur, some investors may take advantage of these rallies and sell into them. 
We continue to witness this type of action.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

S&P500 Negative Momentum

Courtesy of StockCharts.com, Yardeni.com, EquityClock.com

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hanging Man Candlestick May Signal Caution

 

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tall Buildings Lead to Market Falls?

Building starts this year and is estimated to be completed in 2020

To review this theory please take a look at a previous post made on April 13,2011
Link     http://bit.ly/i0UNBX

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

S&P 500 High Risk Periods

Courtesy of Prometheus Market Insight

Our Secular Trend Score (STS) and Cyclical Trend Score (CTS) are calculated using a large basket of fundamental, technical, internal and sentiment data. The historical data used by our models extend back to the market crash in 1929 and have enabled our STS to correctly identify every secular inflection point and our CTS to correctly identify more than 90 percent of all cyclical inflection points during the last 85 years. Additionally, when analyzed collectively, these data identify extremes in the risk/reward profile of the stock market from an investment perspective. Since early 2013, stock market investment risk has remained in the highest one percentile of all historical observations, and the latest speculative surge during the last year has increased overall risk to one of the highest levels ever recorded, joining a select group of three time periods that includes the long-term tops in 1929 and 2000.

 As we often stress, this particular measurement of investment risk is not a top call or an indication that a severe market decline is imminent. Overbought rallies such as this one can remain overbought for a long time as speculative momentum carries prices to higher and higher extremes. What the current investment risk/reward profile tells us is that a severe market decline will almost certainly occur after the current cyclical bull market terminates. In his latest weekly commentary, fund manager John Hussman reviews another data set that indicates stock market valuations have now exceeded those at the previous bubble peak in 2000. We have included an excerpt from his commentary below, although we would highly recommend reading the entire article.
At bull market peaks, investors typically fail to recognize cyclically elevated profit margins, assuming that those margins are permanent and that earnings can be taken at face value. If there is one thing that separates our views here from the bulk of Wall Street analysis, it is the historically-informed insistence that investors are mistakenly banking on record-high profit margins to be permanent. For more on this, including evidence that historical profit margin dynamics remain quite on track and have not changed a whit, see The Coming Retreat in Corporate Earnings, and An Open Letter to the FOMC: Recognizing the Valuation Bubble in Equities.
While the evidence may be alarming to some, make no mistake: The median price/revenue multiple for S&P 500 constituents is now significantly higher than at the 2000 market peak. The average price/revenue multiple across S&P 500 constituents is now above every point in that bubble except the first and third quarters of 2000. Only the capitalization-weighted price/revenue multiple – presently at about 1.7 – is materially below the price/revenue multiple of 2.2 reached at the 2000 peak. That’s largely because S&P 500 market capitalization was dominated by high price/revenue technology stocks in 2000. [Geek's Note: as a result, if one chooses a universe of stocks by first sorting by market capitalization, one will probably find that price/revenue multiples of those stocks are lower today than in 2000]. Regardless, the historical norm for the capitalization-weighted S&P 500 price/revenue ratio is only about 0.80, less than half of present levels. The fact is that unless current record-high profit margins turn out to be permanent, against all historical experience to the contrary, the overvaluation of the broad equity market is equal or more extreme today than it was at the 2000 bubble peak.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Short Term Cycles Update

Change in Trend (CIT) 

Short Term CIT forecast Update
The last forecast made stated the "next cycle turn appears to be around April 22-24 and probably a short term bottom".   Since the Cycle dates, now CIT, are always +/- in their time frame, April 25th falls in this window and on Friday there was a 15 point sell off in the S&P500 and a 140 point sell off in the DJIA.
Currently the next CIT appears to be a window of April 26th to May 1st and possibly a top with a probable sell off into mid May.  This is a possibility since the last couple a days of a month and the first couple of days of the subsequent month is usually a positive time frame.
"Yale Hirsch, publisher of the Stock Trader's Almanac, believes the growing awareness among investors of the monthly favorable period caused it to change, beginning in the mid-1980s. As more investors tried to get in ahead of this monthly rally, it had the effect of causing the rally to begin sooner. Hirsch says the pattern has been altered so that the new seasonality shifted to the last three trading days of any month and the first two of the next month."
For more on this see --->   http://www.cbn.com/finance/best-days-month-invest.aspx

There is no change in the Intermediate Term forecast
Intermediate term cycles are currently pointing down into July 2014 +/-.
So this may prevent some rallies from materializing, but if they do occur, some investors may take advantage of these rallies and sell into them. 
We continue to witness this type of action.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cycles Update

From the Weekend Update April 13,2014

Short term cycles:
In the Update from April 10th -
"Next watch for buy signals in your best oscillators/indicators.  Still looking for a bullish bias into April 17th +/- "
So far buy signals have not been showing up but are watching for them closely.  The market still wants to go down but watch it closely for signs of turning up.
Indications are for some cycles activity on April 15th & 16th that may affect the stock market and it may display some volatility on these days.
After Thursday April 17th the next cycle turn appears to be around April 22-24 and probably a short term bottom.    

The rally into April 17th was a good call, but, the market did not turn down into the cycle turn date of April 22-24.   The market continued to rally in to that time frame where we are right now. 
With the MACD on buy signals for the DJIA and the SP500, the best strategy for now would be to wait for weakness and or sell signals as mentioned in the previous post that discusses the Stock Market Seasonality.

Intermediate term cycles are currently pointing down into July 2014 +/-.
So this may prevent some rallies from materializing, but if they do occur, some investors may take advantage of these rallies and sell into them. 

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

The Stock Market Seasonality

Chaikin Market Insights April 20, 2014
chaikinpowertools.com

The S&P 500 Index needs to close above 1,872.50 – 1,880 to avoid a slide back down towards 1,800. Its close last week of 1,865 was a 62% retracement of the April decline and the Fibonacci devotees amongst you will recognize the resistance that usually implies.
Economic indicators have been good and earnings have been benign but I recommend caution at this juncture. I believe that raising cash on rallies is the prudent course as a 5 – 10% correction seems likely and the seasonality is not favorable for the market as we exit April.

The JustSignals post from April 15,2011 and worth reading again 
On the close of April 20th we will look at the daily MACD (12,26,9) for both the DJIA and the SPX...If the MACD is on a sell for both then according to Sy Harding we sell the position that was entered into last Fall 2010...   See  www.streetsmartreport.com  Sy Harding's Seasonal Timing Strategy (STS) for more information...
If the MACD is not on a sell signal for both, then wait until there is one and sell your long position...
Years ago Yale Hirsch founder of the Stock Trader's Almanac did back testing and found that the best months to hold stock was from November through April...
Sy Harding and others found a way to fine tune the buy and sell during that period with the use of oscillators...On October 16th if the daily MACD (12,26,9) is on a buy signal you go long...If not you wait until the daily MACD changes to a buy signal...On April 20th if the daily MACD is on a sell signal you sell your long position...If not you wait until the daily MACD changes to a sell signal...
Sy Harding has had an excellent return using this one strategy over many decades...
In fact if you followed this strategy it would have kept you out of the 1987 crash, the 9/11/2001 crash, the 2008 crash and more recent it would have gotten you out in the second half of April 2010 before the May 2010 flash crash...
I am sure that there are many investors still trying to break even from the damage of the 2008 crash.
I highly recommend the book "Beat the Market the Easy Way" by Sy Harding.   You will learn many more strategies like this one from a seasoned investor...

Currently both the DJIA and the SP500 are both on MACD buy signals.   They should both be watched for their next sell signals.


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JNK:TLH Ratio - Where are we now ?

This post is an update to the March 27,2014 post

Above chart dated February 21,2014 - courtesy of stockcharts.com

Above chart dated April 16,2014 - courtesy of stockcharts.com

JNK - SPDR High Yield Bond ETF
TLT - Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
TLH - iShares 10-20 Year Treasury Bond ETF

See previous charts posted on this blog on, May20,2011,  April 21,2011 & April 14,2011...
To better understand this post, please read the past posts and to see what happened in hindsight ...

As of today, there is a negative divergence in these charts...
In other words the JNK:TLH chart is not confirming the high in the SPX with a corresponding high in the JNK:TLH chart...

As seen at the top of this blog, maybe it is best said as follows... "Confidence is contagious. So is lack of confidence" -Vince Lombardi


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Todays SPX Chart

From the Weekend Update posted on Sunday April 13th

"Indications are for some cycles activity on April 15th & 16th that may affect the stock market and it may display some volatility on these days."

Well today there was volatility as forecasted !

See the 60min chart below for intraday signals

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mid Day Update

The next short term cycles time frame to watch is April 17th +/-
Since the DJIA had a big up day on Monday and it is up today, watch for a possible top in your oscillators/indicators
Note that the April 17th date is +/-
Potential turns, if they materialize, do not have to come exactly on the most probable dates
Be flexible in your thinking and do not get fixated on specific forecast dates

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Weekend Update

Short term cycles:
In the Update from April 10th -
"Next watch for buy signals in your best oscillators/indicators.  Still looking for a bullish bias into April 17th +/- "
So far buy signals have not been showing up but are watching for them closely.  The market still wants to go down but watch it closely for signs of turning up.
Indications are for some cycles activity on April 15th & 16th that may affect the stock market and it may display some volatility on these days. 
After Thursday April 17th the next cycle turn appears to be around April 22-24 and probably a short term bottom.

Intermediate term cycles are currently pointing down into July 2014 +/-.
So this may prevent some rallies from materializing, but if they do occur, some investors may take advantage of these rallies and sell into them. 

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Short Term Cycles Update

After a big rally yesterday the comment posted here was "Since Thursday is April 10th and the forecast short term cycle bottom, watch for any pull back into that window +/- a day."
That was a good call sticking to the original cycle forecast.

Next watch for buy signals in your best oscillators/indicators.  Still looking for a bullish bias in to April 17th +/- 

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Short Term Cycle Update

On March 31st the cycles forecast was:

Bullish bias into April 1-2, then a

bearish bias into April 10th

When we approached the April 10th window we watched short term indicators more closely.

The following is a screen shot of one indicator.

This morning it was oversold.

Since Thursday is April 10th and the forecast short term cycle bottom, watch for any pull back into that window +/- a day.

The next forecast short term cycle top is believed to be April 17th +/-

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Short Term Cycles Update Reviewed

On March 31st the cycles forecast was:

Bullish bias into April 1-2, then a
bearish bias into April 10th

The market rallied into this time frame and made an final top in the first hour on April 4th.

So far the original cycles forecast has not changed, so, stay tuned and watch for further updates.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Short Term Market Cycles Update

Bullish bias into April 1-2, then a
bearish bias into April 10th


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Is the Stock Market Getting Ready to Turn Soon?

Posted May 20,2011

As of March 25,2014

JNK - SPDR High Yield Bond ETF
TLT - Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

The last time these charts were presented as a post in this blog was on, May20,2011,  April 21,2011 & April 14,2011...
To better understand this post, please read the past posts and to see what happened in hindsight ...

As of today, there is a negative divergence in these charts...
In other words the JNK:TLT chart is not confirming the high in the SPX with a corresponding high in the JNK:TLT chart...

As seen at the top of this blog, maybe it is best said as follows... "Confidence is contagious. So is lack of confidence" -Vince Lombardi


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

A Cycle Update

A cycle top on January 27,2014 may be a warning sign.
Two previous and very similar cycle tops were warning signs before significant stock market sell offs.
One came 51 days before the market slide began and the other one came 62 days before another market slide began.
If these two previous events are used as a guide, then adding 51 days and 62 days respectively to the January 27th cycle top results in a window of March 19 to March 30,2014.
This is a potential window to watch for additional signs of a stock market top and a potential sell off to begin, but, there is no guarantee that this window cannot be extended into April.  Or that a sell off is going to happen.   But if history is going to repeat itself, one should be cautious and act accordingly.
Mark Twain said "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme"


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mid-Day Update for Monday March 24,2014

The previous short term cycles, discussed on Thursday March 20,2014,  topped on Friday's open.   The downside pressure did not follow through to Monday morning at the open, but, it did shortly thereafter and at this writing the averages are: DJIA -65 & SP500 -15.
Watching it for a short term bottom and a positive theme for the rest of the week.
Note that it is the end of the quarter and therefore window dressing is common here.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warren Buffett's "Total Market Cap to GDP Ratio"

Money News published an article On March 20,2014 titled
"Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014

See this article using the following link
http://nws.mx/1oIemR1

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Today's Update

The cycle top suggested for Thursday carried over to this mornings open.   On the 15 min chart there was a Japanese shooting star candle in the first 15 min of trading.  A bearish pattern.   By the afternoon the market retreated at least 50% and now it is only up 6 points.  Triple witching days are volatile.
But yesterdays cycle suggestion also indicated a possible short term bottom on Monday.  So far today's action helps that scenario.  Weak Fridays sometimes bring on weak Mondays.


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Short Term Cycles

The short term cycle top is Thursday March 20th and the short term cycle bottom is Monday March 24th.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

one SPY Daily Oscillator and more

Lower tops and lower bottoms, so far.
But the stock market keeps grinding higher. 
Watch for signs of a possible top developing.
How?
For beginners, you can start at StockCharts.com - Chart School
Then to learn how to apply that knowledge one good book to read is "Successful Stock Signals for Traders and Portfolio Managers" by Tom Lloyd Sr.
For seasoned traders and investors, please feel free to leave a comment and share some of your ideas!

On Sunday March 2,2014, see the post, "Watch March 14-17", this post nailed the pullback into Friday March 14,2014 two weeks before it happened using cycles.

Current State of the Market - possible backing and filling between now and the end of the month, then a little push up into mid April, then a potential sell off into July 2014, as suggested in several prior posts on this blog.

Important posts to review on this blog can be found on these dates:
December 17,2013
January 7,2014
February 26,2014
The information in these posts are very important and further research should be done by you to get a better understanding.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Todays End of Day Chart of the DJIA

Courtesy of Worden Bros

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Article by Sy Harding worth reading

Safe Havens Are Trouncing Stocks So Far in 2014

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/safe-havens-are-trouncing-stocks-so-far-in-2014-2014-3#ixzz2vWijIxYR

http://read.bi/MZU7ju

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

S&P500 vs Margin Debt & GDP

Last week there were many posts online showing Margin Debt in relationship to the S&P500 and the GDP.
Here are a few of these charts.

One observation is that there seems to be a correlation between margin debt (investor positive and negative credit balances) and the S&P500
Second observation is that high margin debt tops out before the S&P500 and the converse was observed as well


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Investors Intelligence stock market sentiment

Courtesy of Investors Intelligence

Note this chart is dated January 7,2014.
Stock market sentiment extremes should not be used as trading signals per se, but, should be used as guidance.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

 Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPY SCTR update

Courtesy of StockCharts.com

SCTR - StockCharts Technical Rating
This was last updated on Sept 24,2013.
Further divergences are noted.



This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

S&P500 chart as of Friday Feb 28,2014

Chart Courtesy of Worden Bros.

This chart, among many others, is reviewed daily.  Occasionally, if the settings on the oscillator/s start to whipsaw or just stop giving timely signals, they are readjusted to fit the most recent price pattern.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.
  

Watch March 14-17 !

- An excerpt from the March 2014 Forecast by Richard Nolle

"Having already spent much time developing and illustrating by historical example what Mars Max means – see my article on the subject, or check the full version of my 2014 World Forecast Highlights – suffice it to say that the peak Mars Max that we’re in this month and next is a time when "fires, crashes, clashes and explosions" will dominate the headlines. Be ready, be cautious, be safe – all through March (and into April), but most especially around the 1st, the 16th-19th, and the 31st."


While I read the above mentioned March 2014 Forecast this morning, I recalled that the March 16-19 dates sounded familiar.   It just so happens that these dates coincide with the March 2014 stock market astro forecast I prepared which calls for a mid month pullback into March 14-16.  Since March 16th falls on a Sunday, many times a forecast date that falls out on a weekend may carry over to the trading days on Friday and or Monday.


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPX monthly chart

Courtesy of eSignal

 

 

 

If this monthly elliott wave count is correct then 1370.58 should be support for a wave 4 counter trend correction.   If it is broken decisively then the wave labeled so far as 1, 2, 3 waves of a 5 wave impulse wave, will be redrawn.  

2014 WARNING
Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist in the 1970's, devised the Dow Jones December Low Indicator.   According to this indicator, danger lies ahead when the lowest December price of the DJIA is surpassed by a lower price in the first quarter of the following year.   Then more bearish market movement is likely to follow.   THIS OCCURRED ON JANUARY 31,2014.

THE 4th YEAR OF A DECADE
In general the 4th year (2004, 1994, 1984, 1974, etc) has had weakness.
Go back to your charts and see.

MID TERM YEARS ARE BEST, says Sy Harding !
Read his book, BEAT THE MARKET THE EASY WAY
Good buying opportunities occur.

THE 5th YEAR OF A DECADE
History has shown that the 5th year (2005, 1995, 1985, 1975, etc.) has had a great record of being up.
In this case 2015 follows the mid-term year 2014.

Base on the above, the "probability" is that we can have a 10-20% correction this year and it "could" be a buying opportunity.   But, as always, be careful and invest wisely and consult a trained professional adviser.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPY daily chart with Oscillator

This daily chart of SPY was updated as of today's closing price.


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This Week In The Stock Market

                                          Courtesy of www.PretzelCharts.com

The market bottomed this week on Wednesday Feb 5th.
Based on the chart above the rally has to fail in a few weeks and start to turn down for this scenario to stay in play.
On another note, JustSignals posted:
Astro Forecast for the S&P500
           on May 13,2011      http://bit.ly/1f499Mf
Our May 13th Forecast Turn out to Be Very Accurate 
           on October 12,2011     http://bit.ly/1iGOv8L
Recap of the May 2011 Forecast and Where Are We Now  
           on December 17, 2013     http://bit.ly/JCK57a

The current Astro Forecast Charts still forecast for a rally or relief rally into late February or March +/- and then to resume the down trend. 

Conclusion: The Astro Forecast is still forecasting a bottom in the stock market in 3Q 2014 +/- and "maybe" the 1929 comparison should be watched.  

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GLD Weekly Oscillator

On the top is a chart of GLD with a weekly oscillator in the chart below. 
GLD is as over bought now on a weekly basis as it was twice before on this chart.



Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mid Term Years are BEST

Mid term years has had one of the best stock market advances.
During the current election year cycle the mid term years are 2014-2015.
So how do we use this information? 
Years ago I read a STREET SMART REPORT by Sy Harding that first introduced me to this concept.  I then read his book BEAT THE MARKET THE EASY WAY, and it is worth reading, and I learned much more about this.  
Sy Harding explains how to catch this move as does Yale and Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac.
You should all do your own research by looking at the patterns of all mid term years going back as far as you can.
I have another twist on this.  The Year 5 phenomenon.  The 5th year of a decade has a remarkable bullish record.  Go back 100 years and see for yourself.   Then see which years are also mid term years.  Look at those mid term years in particular.  Note the patterns.  There is a good probability that those patterns may repeat themselves again in 2014-2015.  Note the quote by Mark Twain, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".

Byron Wien Unveils His 10 Surprise Predictions For 2014
http://www.businessinsider.com/byron-wiens-10-surprises-for-2014-2014-1
The #1 prediction is:
"We experience a Dickensian market with the best of times and the worst of times. The worst comes first as geopolitical problems coupled with euphoric extremes lead to a sharp correction of more than 10%. The best then follows with a move to new highs as the Standard & Poor's 500 approaches a 20% total return by year end."
Knowing that Byron Wien is a seasoned Investment Strategist, I believe that he is very well aware of the mid term year pattern and the Year 5 phenomenon.  Whether his specific prediction is accurate or not, only time will tell.  But it is worth your time to seriously do your own research and learn about this!

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coincidence ?

The Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker left office right at the 1987 stock market top.
Alan Greenspan  left office about one year before the 2007 stock market top.
Ben Bernanke leaves office in January 2014.
Is another stock market top imminent ???

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recap of the May 2011 Forecast and Where are We Now

Our May 13th Forecast Turned Out to Be Very Accurate

An S&P500 forecast was made on Friday May 13,2011 for a May top and a sell off into August 2011...

Below is a summary of what happened...

Top May 2011 – SPX high 1370.58

Bottom August 2011 – the SPX closing low for August was 1119.46

This was a drop of 251.12 S&P500 points or 18.3% 

Below is a copy of the Forecast made or scroll back to Friday May 13,2011 for the original Forecast...

Astro Forecast for the S&P500

The following information is based on limited data and limited back testing...

There are three sets of events below...

Each set of forecasted monthly Tops and monthly Bottoms is based on the same astro events...

The index used was the S&P500...

For the highs we noted the SPX high for that month and for the lows we noted the SPX low for that month...

Top August 1987 – SPX high 337.89

Bottom December 1987 – SPX low 221.24

Bottom November 1990 – SPX low 301.61

Top July 1999 – SPX high 1420.33

Bottom October 1999 – SPX low 1233.66

Bottom September 2002 – SPX low 800.20

Top May 2011 – SPX high 1370.58

Bottom August 2011 – SPX low ?     (1119.46 was the August closing low)

Bottom July 2014 – SPX low ?

Note that in each set above the time between the top and the first bottom is 3-4 months and the time between the top and the second bottom is approximately 3 years. 

 

SO WHERE ARE WE NOW ?

If history is going to repeat itself, we maybe looking at a SPX reading of less than 1370.58 in the middle to the second half of 2014...

That would be about a 24% drop from the 1800.00 level...

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GLD weekly chart with Oscillator

This weekly GLD chart (top) is displayed with an Oscillator (bottom)
As GLD descended from its top the oscillator produced lower tops indicating that GLD was probably not going to turn around and go up with any conviction
Once the down trend in the oscillator was broken to the upside GLD had a chance to try and change its trend from down to up
With the oscillator now in an oversold area it is possible that GLD may make another attempt to move to the upside
Any such move should be confirmed using additional trading tools

Past performance is not indicative of future results.
  

SPY weekly chart with Oscillator

 This weekly SPY chart (top) is displayed with an Oscillator (bottom)

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPY update - SCTR stockcharts technical rank

This chart was first posted on July 19,2013. 
Since then the blue horizontal line was broken to the downside and the stock market proceeded to drop. 
The orange horizontal line drawn just below the blue line was broken today to the downside.
Will the market drop again?
This displays poor relative strength and negative divergence when the SCTR is down trending while the price chart is going up.

The SCTR is provided by StockCharts.com
You can see their formula in their chartschool section of their website which is very informative.
Just another tool in the toolbox.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NYSE Margin Debt

Fool.com youtube about the Margin Debt
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFSNzQIthI8


Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPY using SCTR stockcharts technical rank

In this chart of SPY the black SCTR line was placed over the red price line.
As you can see there are many times that the SCTR will give you a heads up on the direction of SPY.
See both the red and green sloping lines drawn in on the SCTR line.
The SCTR is provided by StockCharts.com
You can see their formula in their chartschool section of their website which is very informative.
Just another tool in the toolbox.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DJIA and GLD Charts

This is a chart of the DJIA for approximately 2 years courtesy of Worden Bros.
The indicator just below the chart has been a relatively good indicator of rallies and pullbacks.

This is a chart of GLD for approximately 2 years courtesy of Worden Bros.
The indicator just below the chart has been a relatively good indicator of rallies and pullbacks and nailed the last big correction very well.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Signals from the daily XVG price chart

Above there are three charts courtesy of eSignal.
From top to bottom, XVG, SPX, EUR...
Below each chart is an oscillator... 
The top chart, XVG, has recently been acting as a good proxy for the stock market...

Past performance is not indicative of future results. 

The chart posted on June 11th 2013 indicated an impending top

Astro chart vs the SP&500 - the tops line up incredibly well ...  
And it did so again since June 11th...

http://bit.ly/1brQHMh

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GLD update

This GLD weekly chart above was updated today and looks like GLD is going through further base building with possible positive divergence...   Looking to see if the positive divergence holds and leads to a rally...
The breakout to the down side is looked at in more detail in the charts below.

This GLD daily chart above is courtesy of eSignal, shows that the sell off today was a "possible" completion of an Elliott corrective impulse wave... 
Below is another precious metals chart with another indicator...

This XAU daily chart above is courtesy of Worden Bros. and has recently been giving some good signals in the oscillator below the price chart...   It also displays a potential positive divergence also...

Today's sell off in equities, bonds & gold would indicate we are in or will be in a deflation period...
But we need to see more than one day of this type of action to firmly come to this conclusion...
So where did the money flow to today ?  The US Dollar ?

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GLD weekly chart

 GLD weekly chart from July 2011 with an overbought oversold oscillator below...
If the declining tops on the oscillator gets broken to the upside, that action may indicate that we may have a decent rally on GLD...
Until then GLD should be in some kind of a base building pattern...

 Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GE vs $EUR see the similarities

These are the monthly charts of GE and $EUR (Euro) from 1992 to the present...
How amazingly similar they are...


Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Astro chart vs the S&P 500

The above shows the S&P 500, in the top chart, compared to an astrology chart just below.
The peaks in the astro chart are, April 2010, July 2011 and March 2012.
We are currently in the window of another peak in the astro chart and a potential top in the S&P 500.
These peaks do not have any correlation to a short term, intermediate or major tops, just that some kind of top is probable.
The use of additional indicators must be used to help time and confirm this action at all times.


Past performance is not indicative of future results.