The Stock Market Seasonality

Chaikin Market Insights April 20, 2014
chaikinpowertools.com

The S&P 500 Index needs to close above 1,872.50 – 1,880 to avoid a slide back down towards 1,800. Its close last week of 1,865 was a 62% retracement of the April decline and the Fibonacci devotees amongst you will recognize the resistance that usually implies.
Economic indicators have been good and earnings have been benign but I recommend caution at this juncture. I believe that raising cash on rallies is the prudent course as a 5 – 10% correction seems likely and the seasonality is not favorable for the market as we exit April.

The JustSignals post from April 15,2011 and worth reading again 
On the close of April 20th we will look at the daily MACD (12,26,9) for both the DJIA and the SPX...If the MACD is on a sell for both then according to Sy Harding we sell the position that was entered into last Fall 2010...   See  www.streetsmartreport.com  Sy Harding's Seasonal Timing Strategy (STS) for more information...
If the MACD is not on a sell signal for both, then wait until there is one and sell your long position...
Years ago Yale Hirsch founder of the Stock Trader's Almanac did back testing and found that the best months to hold stock was from November through April...
Sy Harding and others found a way to fine tune the buy and sell during that period with the use of oscillators...On October 16th if the daily MACD (12,26,9) is on a buy signal you go long...If not you wait until the daily MACD changes to a buy signal...On April 20th if the daily MACD is on a sell signal you sell your long position...If not you wait until the daily MACD changes to a sell signal...
Sy Harding has had an excellent return using this one strategy over many decades...
In fact if you followed this strategy it would have kept you out of the 1987 crash, the 9/11/2001 crash, the 2008 crash and more recent it would have gotten you out in the second half of April 2010 before the May 2010 flash crash...
I am sure that there are many investors still trying to break even from the damage of the 2008 crash.
I highly recommend the book "Beat the Market the Easy Way" by Sy Harding.   You will learn many more strategies like this one from a seasoned investor...

Currently both the DJIA and the SP500 are both on MACD buy signals.   They should both be watched for their next sell signals.


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.