Dr. Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD., Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33418, and writer of the market newsletter, UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE, once wrote that the stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25.
Recent dates when the AAII Bullish % was less than 25.00
June 9,2011 24.40 - Sell off into Aug 2011 before continuing higher
May 16,2012 23.60 - Market continued higher
July 18,2012 22.20 - Market continued higher
April 10,2013 19.30 - Market continued higher
June 10,2015 20.00 - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 5 months later
July 1,2015 22.60 - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 4 months later
July 29,2015 21.10 - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 3 months later
Aug 5,2015 24.30 - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 3 months later
Dec 16,2015 23.90 - Sell off into Jan 2016, but higher level 4-6 months later
May 4,2016 22.30 - Market continued higher
Sep 21,2016 24.83 - Market continued higher
May 17,2017 23.90 - Market continued higher
Aug 30,2017 25.00 ???
Bullish %'s
below 25.00% suggests that the market may rally 3-6
months out. If Aubie Baltin is correct again, then it certainly agrees
with the suggestions of the Picasso Long Term Cycles of a November high (*Aug plus 3 months).
JustSignals posts for the Long Term Cycles have been suggesting:
Long term indicators appear positive, so far.
The LT cycles now suggest a high in November +/-.
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or
your professional investment advisors analysis.
*Also note that a change in trend took place
in the month of August in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Will
it happen again in 2017 as Picasso Long Term Cycles suggest?
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has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and
consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
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