In this update only the date/s will be mentioned with an "H" for high and a "L" for low.
The chart amplitude can and will be misleading at times.
In addition, it is the date/s that is most important rather than if that
date is a projected high or low.
One important reason is because in some cases a date may invert and the "H" or "L" may not mean anything.
A low may actually turn out to be a high and visa versa.
Also it is very important that other tools always be used to confirm any potential ST Cycle Date.
Picasso Dates, always +/-
Mar 3-14 H - high occurred on Mar 15th
Mar 20-28 L - possible low occurring in this time frame - Low occurred on March 27th
Apr 10-13 H (+/-) - high occurred on April 5th & later on Apr 10th
Apr 4/21-24 L (+/-) - lows occurred on April 13th, 18th, 19th, 21st
Apr 28- May8 H - highs on April 26th & May 9th...only 3 day correction, then grinded higher
May 21 L - actual low 2 TD's early on May18
May 25-June 1 H - June 1 hit a high then grinded marginally higher to June 9
June 10-19 L - actual low June 16
June 28-July3 H - June 26th high near this time frame - DJIA high, so far, July 3rd
July 7-14 L - low was July 11
July 19-28 H - So far, SPY 7/27 H, QQQ 7/27 H, IWM 7/25 H
Aug 4-12 L - low was SPY 8/11
Aug 8/18-23 H - highs were made on 8/16 & 8/22
Aug 30-Sept 7 L - a low was made on 8/29
Sept 13-22 H
Sept 29-Oct 5 L
Comments
The Picasso Cycle dates have been working well lately. Let it continue !
Long term indicators appear positive, so far. Negative divergence on
many indicators were broken very late last year and so they now
suggest further upside. So, if pullbacks
develop into the Picasso cycle date lows and daily indicators
are OverSold, it may present a good buying opportunity.
So far this forecast came to pass. The August low was accurate. Although September does not have a good reputation and the Picasso Cycle dates are forecasting a low Sept 29-Oct 5 +/-.
In addition, the LT cycles suggested a low in August +/-, which we had, &
a high in November +/-.
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or
your professional investment advisors analysis.
The LT Cycle low suggested for August was
shallow. The DJIA high was 22,179 and the DJIA low was 21,600. This
was a 2.6% correction. Not much, but, it was a correction as forecasted
nevertheless.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This
has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and
consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
Monday, September 11, 2017
Wednesday, September 6, 2017
chart: q and CAPE, valuations
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| Courtesy of Andrew Smithers/Smithers & Co |
Yup, second highest CAPE and third highest q in 100 years.
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
AAII Bullish % predicts...
Dr. Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD., Palm Beach Gardens, FL 33418, and writer of the market newsletter, UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE, once wrote that the stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25.
Recent dates when the AAII Bullish % was less than 25.00
June 9,2011 24.40 - Sell off into Aug 2011 before continuing higher
May 16,2012 23.60 - Market continued higher
July 18,2012 22.20 - Market continued higher
April 10,2013 19.30 - Market continued higher
June 10,2015 20.00 - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 5 months later
July 1,2015 22.60 - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 4 months later
July 29,2015 21.10 - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 3 months later
Aug 5,2015 24.30 - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 3 months later
Dec 16,2015 23.90 - Sell off into Jan 2016, but higher level 4-6 months later
May 4,2016 22.30 - Market continued higher
Sep 21,2016 24.83 - Market continued higher
May 17,2017 23.90 - Market continued higher
Aug 30,2017 25.00 ???
Bullish %'s below 25.00% suggests that the market may rally 3-6 months out. If Aubie Baltin is correct again, then it certainly agrees with the suggestions of the Picasso Long Term Cycles of a November high (*Aug plus 3 months).
JustSignals posts for the Long Term Cycles have been suggesting:
Long term indicators appear positive, so far.
The LT cycles now suggest a high in November +/-.
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.
*Also note that a change in trend took place in the month of August in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Will it happen again in 2017 as Picasso Long Term Cycles suggest?
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
Recent dates when the AAII Bullish % was less than 25.00
June 9,2011 24.40 - Sell off into Aug 2011 before continuing higher
May 16,2012 23.60 - Market continued higher
July 18,2012 22.20 - Market continued higher
April 10,2013 19.30 - Market continued higher
June 10,2015 20.00 - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 5 months later
July 1,2015 22.60 - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 4 months later
July 29,2015 21.10 - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 3 months later
Aug 5,2015 24.30 - Sell off into Aug 2015, but same level 3 months later
Dec 16,2015 23.90 - Sell off into Jan 2016, but higher level 4-6 months later
May 4,2016 22.30 - Market continued higher
Sep 21,2016 24.83 - Market continued higher
May 17,2017 23.90 - Market continued higher
Aug 30,2017 25.00 ???
Bullish %'s below 25.00% suggests that the market may rally 3-6 months out. If Aubie Baltin is correct again, then it certainly agrees with the suggestions of the Picasso Long Term Cycles of a November high (*Aug plus 3 months).
JustSignals posts for the Long Term Cycles have been suggesting:
Long term indicators appear positive, so far.
The LT cycles now suggest a high in November +/-.
Always remember to confirm cycle dates with your or your professional investment advisors analysis.
*Also note that a change in trend took place in the month of August in 2010, 2011, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. Will it happen again in 2017 as Picasso Long Term Cycles suggest?
Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future results
Is GE a Predictor of the Market?
GE is the only original stock left in the DJIA.
By Investopedia
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was created in 1896 by Charles Dow and originally consisted of 12 companies: American Cotton Oil, American Sugar, American Tobacco, Chicago Gas, Distilling & Cattle Feeding, General Electric, Laclede Gas, National Lead, North American, Tennessee Coal and Iron, U.S. Leather pfd. and U.S. Rubber. At the time, these companies represented each sector of the market and thus the Dow Jones illustrated the overall performance of the market in the United States.
At the end of a recession created by the collapse of Philadelphia and Reading Railroads in 1893, these companies represented the stronghold of the United States. Even with the trouble from the railroads, coal remained the dominant fuel for transportation, while gas and electric were growing in demand. Crops were a major export and source of revenue for the economy, while also providing sustenance.
As the country's industrial age came to a close, electricity became the dominant energy source that led to numerous technological advancements. The economy shifted toward providing more consumer goods. With these changes, all but General Electric ceased to exist. In 1929, the Dow Jones was expanded to include the 30-company list known as of August 2014. The 30 companies have changed over the years, but the index still represents a wide section of the U.S. market. However, with so few companies listed in the index, it can only truly reflect about a quarter of the overall market. Even with this small list, the DJIA is still able to accurately reflect trends across the broad market.
By Investopedia
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was created in 1896 by Charles Dow and originally consisted of 12 companies: American Cotton Oil, American Sugar, American Tobacco, Chicago Gas, Distilling & Cattle Feeding, General Electric, Laclede Gas, National Lead, North American, Tennessee Coal and Iron, U.S. Leather pfd. and U.S. Rubber. At the time, these companies represented each sector of the market and thus the Dow Jones illustrated the overall performance of the market in the United States.
At the end of a recession created by the collapse of Philadelphia and Reading Railroads in 1893, these companies represented the stronghold of the United States. Even with the trouble from the railroads, coal remained the dominant fuel for transportation, while gas and electric were growing in demand. Crops were a major export and source of revenue for the economy, while also providing sustenance.
As the country's industrial age came to a close, electricity became the dominant energy source that led to numerous technological advancements. The economy shifted toward providing more consumer goods. With these changes, all but General Electric ceased to exist. In 1929, the Dow Jones was expanded to include the 30-company list known as of August 2014. The 30 companies have changed over the years, but the index still represents a wide section of the U.S. market. However, with so few companies listed in the index, it can only truly reflect about a quarter of the overall market. Even with this small list, the DJIA is still able to accurately reflect trends across the broad market.
 | ||
| Courtesy of Worden Bros. |
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