Wal-Mart: Our shoppers are 'running out of money'

See full article

http://bit.ly/ieWLYG

Wal-Mart's ready to do battle on prices

Excerpt from CNNMoney.com:

Americans don't have the luxury of driving all over town to do their shopping.

Other than competing on prices and products, Duke said Wal-Mart is focused on leveraging technology -- especially social networking -- more aggressively to drive sales.

 "Social networking is much more a part of the purchasing decision," he said. "Consumers are communicating with each other on Facebook about how they spend their money and what they're buying."


FYI...

@profgalloway Scott Galloway

RT @ms5484: Tweethearts, what do you think? Is @profgalloway's class the only one that awards students for dominating Social Media?...

Scott Galloway - Professor of Brand Strategy @ NYU, Founder of L2 Think Tank, Red Envelope, Prophet Brand Strategy and Firebrand Partners http://www.l2thinktank.com

URANUS and the Stock Market

URANUS - In Pisces - 2003- March 10 2011
in Aries May 27 -2010 - August 13 2010  &   March 11 2011 - May 15 2018


Briefly we will find Uranus in Aries from May 27th 2010 then retrogrades on July 5th 2010 into Pisces and back to Pisces on August 14th. 2010  It will be direct on December 6th 2010  in Pisces. On March 12th 2011 it will be in Aries for eight years.

When it is in Pisces, it is  mysterious. It deals with the unfinished business.

The last time it entered Pisces, was from 1919 to 1927 ~ the Russian Revolution to the roaring twenties.  This time period should bring global government movement, solutions to problems that were unsolvable and more of understanding.

In Aries the fire sign.   The emphasis will be on independence and new beginnings.  It will give you some insight this year (2011) of how your life will change.  If there are areas in your life that need to be let go of or changed, Uranus will target them.  Unfortunately it can be an upheaval if you are living not positively.  It is a time also of spiritual tests and awakening.

Use this time to set your goals or even to reexamine your current ones.

We will find that it will open our selves and the world to new exciting innovations. New breakthroughs in science, medicine and mostly anything can happen during this period.

The last time it was in Aries was from 1927 to 1935  the stock market crashed and the great depression started.

Uranus is in each sign for 7 years.  

Full article can be found at      http://www.carlamary.net/UranusinPiscesandAries.html 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Two Forecast Charts for 2011 vs the Actual Market YTD...Update

Moon chart (top) Composite of all the "1" years of each decade (middle) SPX YTD (bottom)

Last update posted Wednesday, March 23,2011...

Again and for new readers:
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme" - Mark Twain

The top chart is our Moon chart for 2011...
The second chart is a composite chart...
The third chart is the actual S&P500 YTD...
"So far" for 2011 the stock market seems to be following the multi-decade composite chart...
Don't discount the Moon chart altogether...look at the similar trend changes as compared to the YTD S&P500...


Other Updates:
Is the Stock Market Getting Ready Ready to Turn Soon?...Last post April 21,2011...
Today the DJIA made another recovery high...
JNK 40.75 up 0.08
TLT 93.85 up 0.90
The JNK:TLT ratio got weaker again today while the market was up 115 points...
The negative divergence continues...


SPX vs McClellan Summation...Last post April 20,2011
The McClellan Summation has turned up and is still below the descending trend line...

Buy Signal...Last post April 20,2011
Still on a Buy Signal...The next signal will be posted when it happens...
A note for new readers, this signal can get whip sawed while in a trading range...This is when losses will occur...The system is designed to keep losses to a minimum and to maximize gains by keeping us in trending markets...Refer to the last performance chart posted on April 20,2011...

Advisor Sentiment...Last post April 8,2011
Still experiencing Bullish readings...
In addition, Investors Intelligence has also reported recent Insider Selling at record levels...This has been historically negative...

Precious Metals Mutual Fund Market Cap vs GLD...Last post April 1,2011
No change in the comments...The Market Cap since April 1,2011 has not exceeded $150mil...When Gold and Silver started marching higher we thought that investors would be chasing it by buying the PM mutual fund and so far they did not...So is Gold and Silver going higher then?
If Gold and Silver go higher, investors will probably be tired of sitting out the rally and they will finally buy into it...maybe near a top...
If Gold and Silver go down, we may see investors sell their PM mutual fund and we may have a better base formed to continue an advance in both of these metals...


Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Is the Stock Market Getting Ready to Turn Soon?...Update

JNK - SPDR High Yield Bond ETF
TLT - Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Blue = JNK:TLT ratio turned before the DJIA
Pink = DJIA turned before the JNK:TLT ratio

A chart of JNK:TLT was last posted on Thursday, April 14,2011...
Todays prices:
JNK 40.64 +.07
TLT 93.00 +.32
It is very interesting with the Stock Market up (DJIA +32.58) that TLT is stronger than JNK...
This week the DJIA made a recovery high so we used this chart above and compared it to the JNK:TLT ratio chart...Note the divergences in these two charts when there was a  change in trend and it appears that we maybe in the middle of another divergence...
So far the S&P500, DJTA & Nasdaq have not joined the DJIA making a recovery high...Also JNK continues to be weaker than TLT...As long as JNK continues to be weaker than TLT, even if the other Stock Market averages make recovery highs, it increases the odds that we are forming a top...


Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPX vs McClellan Summation...Update

McClellan Summation (top) vs SPX (bottom)

Note the rising tops in the SPX while the McClellan Summation has declining tops (pink line)...
This was last posted on Tuesday, March 15,2011...At that time the McClellan Summation was descending...Today the McClellan Summation turned up and we are watching to see if it finds resistance at or below the pink descending trend line or if it breaks through it to the upside...
Below is a chart of the NYSE vs McClellan Summation 2001, previously posted...

NYSE vs McClellan Summation 2001

This chart was on the McClellan Financial Publication website...Note that the pattern of the McClellan Summation for 2010-2011 is very similar to the 2001 chart...In 2001 the market finished the pattern with a September 2001 sell off...


Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Round and Round We Go, Where We Stop...

Excerpt from The Worden Report (Wednesday, April 20,2011)

By Peter Worden

www.worden.com

New Buy Signal

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Quantitative Easing Explained

Sell Signal Market Update

On Wednesday April 6,2011 we said...
"After consulting with some of our astro charts, it looks like the market can potentially work its way sideways to higher into April 21st +/- and then correct into May 2nd +/-....
"If" this scenario works out, to some degree, then the market should rally into May/June...
Let the Trend Following Signals navigate us through this..."

This morning...
We were on a Buy signal from March 24,2011 when the above comment was posted...Then on April 12,2011 we issued a Sell signal...On April 12th the TNA was 82.00, TZA was 37.43 and this morning the TNA is trading at 82.94, the TZA is trading at 36.94...
What happened between April 6th and today was that the market tried to shake out as many traders as possible...So since our April 6th projection was not correct so far, we did do what we suggested and that was to "Let the Trend Following Signals navigate us through this..."  These signals have done a great job...

So what is next?  We are still on a Sell signal and we are going to wait for the next Buy signal from what ever level it occurs...Let's also see what happens with the rest of the astro projection from April21st +/- into May 2nd +/- (April 29 - May3)...


Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sell in May and Go Away ? or Buy Yom Kippur, Sell Passover ?

Next week on the close of April 20th we will look at the daily MACD (12,26,9) for both the DJIA and the SPX...If the MACD is on a sell for both then according to Sy Harding we sell the position that was entered into last Fall 2010...
If the MACD is not on a sell signal for both, then wait until there is one and sell your long position...
Years ago Yale Hirsch founder of the Stock Trader's Almanac (see article below) did back testing and found that the best months to hold stock was from November through April...
Sy Harding and others found a way to fine tune the buy and sell during that period with the use of oscillators...On October 16th if the daily MACD (12,26,9) is on a buy signal you go long...If not you wait until the daily MACD changes to a buy signal...On April 20th if the daily MACD is on a sell signal you sell your long position...If not you wait until the daily MACD changes to a sell signal...
Sy Harding has had an excellent return using this one strategy over many decades...
In fact if you followed this strategy it would have kept you out of the 1987 crash, the 9/11/2001 crash, the 2008 crash and more recent it would have gotten you out in the second half of April 2010 before the May 2010 flash crash...
I am sure that there are many investors still trying to break even from the damage of the 2008 crash.
I highly recommend the book "Beat the Market the Easy Way" by Sy Harding.   You will learn many more strategies like this one from a seasoned investor...

********************************************************

Yale & Jeff Hirsch
About the Editor
Jeff is editor in chief of the Almanac Investor newsletter Stock Trader's Almanac, StockTradersAlmanac.com, and the Hirsch Organization. He makes frequent appearances on CNBC, CC, Fox, and Bloomberg. Yale Hirsch is founder of the Stock Trader’s Almanac.

Market Exodus – Bought Yom Kippur? Remember to Sell Passover
By Jeffrey A. Hirsch

                   Last year on September 10, market behavior around Rosh Hashanah and Yom Kippur was examined in a post titled “Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur, Sell Passover” noting that going long from Yom Kippur to Passover was very similar to the “Best Six Months” strategy which is be long November to April. Yom Kippur was on Saturday September 18, 2010. Going long at the close of the market on the day before through yesterday has been particularly profitable this year as the DJIA has gained 15.8%.
Read full post

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Is the Stock Market Getting Ready to Turn Soon?

JNK - SPDR High Yield Bond ETF
TLT - Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

When investors prefer to be in high yield bonds like JNK it is usually a good time to participate in the stock market...
When investors prefer to be in quality bonds like TLT it is usually not a good time to participate in the stock market ...
The second chart above shows the relative strength of JNK as compared to TLT...
This ratio has a tendency to confirm the turns in the stock market...
When investors prefer buying JNK this chart will go up and when investors prefer buying TLT this chart will go down...

As seen at the top of this blog, maybe it is best said as follows... "Confidence is contagious. So is lack of confidence" -Vince Lombardi


Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tall Buildings Lead to Market Falls...Next, Mile High Skyscraper...

Tall buildings lead to market falls?
by www.equitymaster.com

"The bigger the better" is inbuilt in human psychology. This phrase holds maximum truth in real estate. Developers and industrialists are perpetually trying to outdo each other by building the "tallest buildings". This is not a recent trend. It has been around since 1916, when the Woolworth Building was completed in New York.

But the spooky fact is that when a highly publicized 'tall' building space gets launched, it is usually in the middle of a stock market crash. Don't believe us? Let's see some examples of this.

Period: 1930s

'Tall' Buildings: Sears Towers in Chicago, Empire State Building in New York

Source: Yahoo Finance

The Sears Tower as well as the Empire State Building were launched in 1930 and 1931 respectively. It was right when the Great Depression was setting in. From the peak in 1930, the Dow Jones Index crashed by nearly 86%.

Period: 1989

'Tall' Building: Canary Wharf Tower in UK

Source: Yahoo Finance

The Canary Wharf Tower was launched in UK in the beginning of 1990. Just in time for the 1990s recession in which the FTSE 100 fell by nearly 19%.

Period: 1997

'Tall' Buildings: International Finance Centre (IFC) in HK and Petronas Towers in Malaysia

Source: Yahoo Finance

The IFC was launched in Hong Kong in the middle of 1997. Just in the middle of the Asian Financial Crisis in which the Hang Seng Index (HSI) fell by 60%.

Source: Yahoo Finance

The Petronas Towers were launched in Malaysia in the middle of 1997. Just in the middle of the Asian Financial Crisis in which the Kuala Lumpur Composite Index (KLCI) fell by 77%.

Period: 2010

'Tall' Building: Burj Khalifa in Dubai

Source: Khaleeja Times

The world's tallest building Burj Khalifa was launched on 5th January, 2010. Dubai financial markets were already reeling with the headwinds surrounding its property developers. The Dubai financial markets (DFM) declined by 34%.

Spooky isnt it?

So why does it happen? Interestingly, it is the increased liquidity in the system that fuels such fantasies, which industrialists seek to convert to realities. The economy is going great guns. Investors are in a euphoric mood. Money is easily available through loans and private equity funds. All this euphoria clouds the thinking of the developers, who then start aiming for the heights.

But, as these fantasy projects start taking shape, the economic mood is generally turning towards the worse. By the time these projects are completed, the economy starts slipping into recession and these monuments start serving as a gloomy reminder through their empty floor spaces and vacant expressions.

History has proved this fact time and time again. But interestingly, history is always ignored as developers get back into these fantasy moods claiming "this time it's different".

Recently an Indian developer, Lodha Builders, has decided to build the world's tallest residential building. We are sort of hoping that the jinx breaks in India and history does not repeat itself. Hopefully, 'this time it is different'.

Saudi Arabia Plans For Mile-High Skyscraper

MORE: building, damn rich people, excess, fancy, going against nature, holy smokes, i don't know about that, I'd build out not up (but that's just me), i'm afraid of heights, just because you can doesn't mean you should, middle east, pissing contests, sure why not, tall, tall tower is too tall, tower, why?, world's, yikes, you've got to be kidding me

A mile? That's not even scraping the sky anymore -- that's an open-palm grope!
Because building a tower taller your neighbor's is making a comeback in proving your superiority (God, whatever happened to a good ol' fashioned pissing contest?!), Saudi Arabia plans on building a $30-billion(!!!!!!) skyscraper that's almost twice as tall as Dubai's current record-holder, the Burj Khalifa (828 m; 2,717ft) with a tower a full mile high (1,600 m; 5,280 ft). *shivers* YOU'RE GOING AGAINST NATURE.

Prince Al Waleed Bin Talal, head of Kingdom Holding Company recently gave his approval for construction of what will be billed as the world's tallest man-made structure -- the Kingdom Tower.
Designed by Adrian Smith, the Kingdom Tower will be built in Saudi Arabia's city of Jeddah. The tower will stretch one mile up into heavens and include 12 million cubic feet of space, several stories of office space, several stories for a hotel and four tiers of residential space, with the upper most tier reserved for "alternative energy generation" solutions (perhaps including a pendulum to keep the entire tower from collapsing).

An elevator ride to the top is expected to take about 12-minutes, which is 11-and-half minutes longer than I could ever hold a fart trying to be a decent human being. Geez -- could you imagine getting to the bottom and realizing you left something upstairs? You'd have to just leave it OR IT'S ANOTHER 24-MINUTES BEFORE YOU'RE BACK DOWNSTAIRS. That's a f***ing commute and you haven't even left the building!
Hit the jump for a shot of the building's layout, as well as a video about it.


Kingdom Tower will make the Burj Khalifa look short, reach one mile up [dvice]
Thanks to Thomas, who likened the building to the Tower of Babel. Really?

New Intraday Sell Signal

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Advisor Sentiment Report

Advisors Sentiment By Investors Intelligence April 5,2011

The Advisors Sentiment Report has been calling major market turning points since 1963, and has always been closely followed by the financial media.  This week, CNBC featured the report – you can read about it here.

When the survey was developed by founder, AW Cohen, he originally expected that the best time to be long in the market was when most advisors were bullish,  This proved to be far from the case – a majority of advisors and commentators were almost always wrong at market turning points.  Quite simply, professional advisors are just as susceptible to market emotions as individual investors – they become far too greedy at the top of trends and far too fearful near the bottom.

 

Extreme readings, as we are experiencing right now, historically have major significance so if you don’t already subscribe*, just click here to read more and add the Advisors Sentiment report to your investment research tools.

 

*Current subscribers to the Advisors Sentiment report can login to www.investorsintelligence.com to read this weeks report in full.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stock Market Signals Update

The following was posted on March 24,2011...
The TNA was 80.17 then and today it is trading around 92.25...
The Trend Following Signal is still on a buy and we will post the sell signal when we get one...

Thank you to everyone that has made this blog successful !
The stats on this blog are very high so I know that we are being followed closely.
If you think that this blog can be helpful to others then please pass the word on to them.
Thank you again!

 

Posted...Thursday, March 24, 2011

A new buy signal today...

Trend Following signals will get us on the right side most of the time so we do not have to guess where the market is going, because, we know that the market is going to do whatever it wants to do whenever it wants to do it...
We keep our emotions out of our decision making process when using Trend Following signals...

New Buy Signal

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

More Market Comments

After posting the Market Alert comments earlier today we took another look at the SPX pattern between December 2009 and February 2010...Notice that the market kept grinding a little higher into January 2010 before it corrected into February 2010...
After consulting with some of our astro charts, it looks like the market can potentially work its way sideways to higher into April 21st +/- and then correct into May 2nd +/-....
"If" this scenario works out, to some degree, then the market should rally into May/June...
Let the Trend Following Signals navigate us through this...
So far, since April 27,2010 the signals performance has had net gains of about 100%...
Watch for more updates on this...

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Market Alert

Today Investors Intelligence reported Advisor Sentiment numbers...
Bulls moved up to 57.3%
Bears dropped down to 15.7%
Corrections increased to 27.0%

One of the calculations used to analyze Advisor Sentiment numbers  is the spread between the Bulls and the Bears...Today the spread increased to 41.6%...It was 42.4% in October 2007 at the all time high in the DJIA...

Note that the Bears were 15.6% in December 2009 before the market correction into February 2010...The market then rallied into April 2010 before the sell off into the June/July 2010 bottom...

We think that we may have an April/May sell off and then a rally to a May/June top...

But, we will continue to let our Trend Following Signals guide us through the market since it has been doing a very fine job so far...


Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gold Gold Gold, Long and short term Market Update

Gold Chart By AstroCycle.com

You can see the 40 year cycle  clearly on this chart above in addition to an 8 year cycle.   In my reading of the work of Samuel J Kress Jr, he said that the 40 year cycle has special significance in that it can be divided by two Fibonacci numbers, 5 and 8....
Using the 8 year cycle the next projected high is in the year 2012 and the next projected low is in the year 2016...and then another high in the year, 2020...The last cycle low was in the year 2000 and the next projected high is due in the year 2020...
Fibonacci price targets are noted as well...


Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Precious Metals Mutual Fund Market Cap vs GLD...Updated

Turquiose = Precious Metals Mutual Fund Market Cap

 

The last time this chart was updated was on February 18,2011...
The markets usually advance while leaving most traders behind...
Most investors/traders buy and sell at the wrong times...
You can see this clearly in the above chart...
When there are large redemptions in this PM mutual fund the price of GLD bottoms...
When the price of GLD moves up the investors chase it and buy the PM Mutual Fund...
So the PM Mutual Fund was being bought and sold at the wrong times...
Currently GLD moved up and investors do not look like they are chasing it yet...
This makes me believe that GLD may be moving higher...
When investors start chasing GLD by buying the PM Mutual Funds, the caution flag will be waving again...

Let's wait and see...

Past performance is not indicative of future results.