Tuesday, April 26, 2011

Two Forecast Charts for 2011 vs the Actual Market YTD...Update

Moon chart (top) Composite of all the "1" years of each decade (middle) SPX YTD (bottom)

Last update posted Wednesday, March 23,2011...

Again and for new readers:
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme" - Mark Twain

The top chart is our Moon chart for 2011...
The second chart is a composite chart...
The third chart is the actual S&P500 YTD...
"So far" for 2011 the stock market seems to be following the multi-decade composite chart...
Don't discount the Moon chart altogether...look at the similar trend changes as compared to the YTD S&P500...


Other Updates:
Is the Stock Market Getting Ready Ready to Turn Soon?...Last post April 21,2011...
Today the DJIA made another recovery high...
JNK 40.75 up 0.08
TLT 93.85 up 0.90
The JNK:TLT ratio got weaker again today while the market was up 115 points...
The negative divergence continues...


SPX vs McClellan Summation...Last post April 20,2011
The McClellan Summation has turned up and is still below the descending trend line...

Buy Signal...Last post April 20,2011
Still on a Buy Signal...The next signal will be posted when it happens...
A note for new readers, this signal can get whip sawed while in a trading range...This is when losses will occur...The system is designed to keep losses to a minimum and to maximize gains by keeping us in trending markets...Refer to the last performance chart posted on April 20,2011...

Advisor Sentiment...Last post April 8,2011
Still experiencing Bullish readings...
In addition, Investors Intelligence has also reported recent Insider Selling at record levels...This has been historically negative...

Precious Metals Mutual Fund Market Cap vs GLD...Last post April 1,2011
No change in the comments...The Market Cap since April 1,2011 has not exceeded $150mil...When Gold and Silver started marching higher we thought that investors would be chasing it by buying the PM mutual fund and so far they did not...So is Gold and Silver going higher then?
If Gold and Silver go higher, investors will probably be tired of sitting out the rally and they will finally buy into it...maybe near a top...
If Gold and Silver go down, we may see investors sell their PM mutual fund and we may have a better base formed to continue an advance in both of these metals...


Past performance is not indicative of future results.

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