SPX monthly chart

Courtesy of eSignal

 

 

 

If this monthly elliott wave count is correct then 1370.58 should be support for a wave 4 counter trend correction.   If it is broken decisively then the wave labeled so far as 1, 2, 3 waves of a 5 wave impulse wave, will be redrawn.  

2014 WARNING
Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist in the 1970's, devised the Dow Jones December Low Indicator.   According to this indicator, danger lies ahead when the lowest December price of the DJIA is surpassed by a lower price in the first quarter of the following year.   Then more bearish market movement is likely to follow.   THIS OCCURRED ON JANUARY 31,2014.

THE 4th YEAR OF A DECADE
In general the 4th year (2004, 1994, 1984, 1974, etc) has had weakness.
Go back to your charts and see.

MID TERM YEARS ARE BEST, says Sy Harding !
Read his book, BEAT THE MARKET THE EASY WAY
Good buying opportunities occur.

THE 5th YEAR OF A DECADE
History has shown that the 5th year (2005, 1995, 1985, 1975, etc.) has had a great record of being up.
In this case 2015 follows the mid-term year 2014.

Base on the above, the "probability" is that we can have a 10-20% correction this year and it "could" be a buying opportunity.   But, as always, be careful and invest wisely and consult a trained professional adviser.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPY daily chart with Oscillator

This daily chart of SPY was updated as of today's closing price.


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This Week In The Stock Market

                                          Courtesy of www.PretzelCharts.com

The market bottomed this week on Wednesday Feb 5th.
Based on the chart above the rally has to fail in a few weeks and start to turn down for this scenario to stay in play.
On another note, JustSignals posted:
Astro Forecast for the S&P500
           on May 13,2011      http://bit.ly/1f499Mf
Our May 13th Forecast Turn out to Be Very Accurate 
           on October 12,2011     http://bit.ly/1iGOv8L
Recap of the May 2011 Forecast and Where Are We Now  
           on December 17, 2013     http://bit.ly/JCK57a

The current Astro Forecast Charts still forecast for a rally or relief rally into late February or March +/- and then to resume the down trend. 

Conclusion: The Astro Forecast is still forecasting a bottom in the stock market in 3Q 2014 +/- and "maybe" the 1929 comparison should be watched.  

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GLD Weekly Oscillator

On the top is a chart of GLD with a weekly oscillator in the chart below. 
GLD is as over bought now on a weekly basis as it was twice before on this chart.



Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mid Term Years are BEST

Mid term years has had one of the best stock market advances.
During the current election year cycle the mid term years are 2014-2015.
So how do we use this information? 
Years ago I read a STREET SMART REPORT by Sy Harding that first introduced me to this concept.  I then read his book BEAT THE MARKET THE EASY WAY, and it is worth reading, and I learned much more about this.  
Sy Harding explains how to catch this move as does Yale and Jeff Hirsch of the Stock Trader's Almanac.
You should all do your own research by looking at the patterns of all mid term years going back as far as you can.
I have another twist on this.  The Year 5 phenomenon.  The 5th year of a decade has a remarkable bullish record.  Go back 100 years and see for yourself.   Then see which years are also mid term years.  Look at those mid term years in particular.  Note the patterns.  There is a good probability that those patterns may repeat themselves again in 2014-2015.  Note the quote by Mark Twain, "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme".

Byron Wien Unveils His 10 Surprise Predictions For 2014
http://www.businessinsider.com/byron-wiens-10-surprises-for-2014-2014-1
The #1 prediction is:
"We experience a Dickensian market with the best of times and the worst of times. The worst comes first as geopolitical problems coupled with euphoric extremes lead to a sharp correction of more than 10%. The best then follows with a move to new highs as the Standard & Poor's 500 approaches a 20% total return by year end."
Knowing that Byron Wien is a seasoned Investment Strategist, I believe that he is very well aware of the mid term year pattern and the Year 5 phenomenon.  Whether his specific prediction is accurate or not, only time will tell.  But it is worth your time to seriously do your own research and learn about this!

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Coincidence ?

The Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker left office right at the 1987 stock market top.
Alan Greenspan  left office about one year before the 2007 stock market top.
Ben Bernanke leaves office in January 2014.
Is another stock market top imminent ???

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Recap of the May 2011 Forecast and Where are We Now

Our May 13th Forecast Turned Out to Be Very Accurate

An S&P500 forecast was made on Friday May 13,2011 for a May top and a sell off into August 2011...

Below is a summary of what happened...

Top May 2011 – SPX high 1370.58

Bottom August 2011 – the SPX closing low for August was 1119.46

This was a drop of 251.12 S&P500 points or 18.3% 

Below is a copy of the Forecast made or scroll back to Friday May 13,2011 for the original Forecast...

Astro Forecast for the S&P500

The following information is based on limited data and limited back testing...

There are three sets of events below...

Each set of forecasted monthly Tops and monthly Bottoms is based on the same astro events...

The index used was the S&P500...

For the highs we noted the SPX high for that month and for the lows we noted the SPX low for that month...

Top August 1987 – SPX high 337.89

Bottom December 1987 – SPX low 221.24

Bottom November 1990 – SPX low 301.61

Top July 1999 – SPX high 1420.33

Bottom October 1999 – SPX low 1233.66

Bottom September 2002 – SPX low 800.20

Top May 2011 – SPX high 1370.58

Bottom August 2011 – SPX low ?     (1119.46 was the August closing low)

Bottom July 2014 – SPX low ?

Note that in each set above the time between the top and the first bottom is 3-4 months and the time between the top and the second bottom is approximately 3 years. 

 

SO WHERE ARE WE NOW ?

If history is going to repeat itself, we maybe looking at a SPX reading of less than 1370.58 in the middle to the second half of 2014...

That would be about a 24% drop from the 1800.00 level...

 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GLD weekly chart with Oscillator

This weekly GLD chart (top) is displayed with an Oscillator (bottom)
As GLD descended from its top the oscillator produced lower tops indicating that GLD was probably not going to turn around and go up with any conviction
Once the down trend in the oscillator was broken to the upside GLD had a chance to try and change its trend from down to up
With the oscillator now in an oversold area it is possible that GLD may make another attempt to move to the upside
Any such move should be confirmed using additional trading tools

Past performance is not indicative of future results.
  

SPY weekly chart with Oscillator

 This weekly SPY chart (top) is displayed with an Oscillator (bottom)

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPY update - SCTR stockcharts technical rank

This chart was first posted on July 19,2013. 
Since then the blue horizontal line was broken to the downside and the stock market proceeded to drop. 
The orange horizontal line drawn just below the blue line was broken today to the downside.
Will the market drop again?
This displays poor relative strength and negative divergence when the SCTR is down trending while the price chart is going up.

The SCTR is provided by StockCharts.com
You can see their formula in their chartschool section of their website which is very informative.
Just another tool in the toolbox.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NYSE Margin Debt

Fool.com youtube about the Margin Debt
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kFSNzQIthI8


Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPY using SCTR stockcharts technical rank

In this chart of SPY the black SCTR line was placed over the red price line.
As you can see there are many times that the SCTR will give you a heads up on the direction of SPY.
See both the red and green sloping lines drawn in on the SCTR line.
The SCTR is provided by StockCharts.com
You can see their formula in their chartschool section of their website which is very informative.
Just another tool in the toolbox.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

DJIA and GLD Charts

This is a chart of the DJIA for approximately 2 years courtesy of Worden Bros.
The indicator just below the chart has been a relatively good indicator of rallies and pullbacks.

This is a chart of GLD for approximately 2 years courtesy of Worden Bros.
The indicator just below the chart has been a relatively good indicator of rallies and pullbacks and nailed the last big correction very well.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Signals from the daily XVG price chart

Above there are three charts courtesy of eSignal.
From top to bottom, XVG, SPX, EUR...
Below each chart is an oscillator... 
The top chart, XVG, has recently been acting as a good proxy for the stock market...

Past performance is not indicative of future results. 

The chart posted on June 11th 2013 indicated an impending top

Astro chart vs the SP&500 - the tops line up incredibly well ...  
And it did so again since June 11th...

http://bit.ly/1brQHMh

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GLD update

This GLD weekly chart above was updated today and looks like GLD is going through further base building with possible positive divergence...   Looking to see if the positive divergence holds and leads to a rally...
The breakout to the down side is looked at in more detail in the charts below.

This GLD daily chart above is courtesy of eSignal, shows that the sell off today was a "possible" completion of an Elliott corrective impulse wave... 
Below is another precious metals chart with another indicator...

This XAU daily chart above is courtesy of Worden Bros. and has recently been giving some good signals in the oscillator below the price chart...   It also displays a potential positive divergence also...

Today's sell off in equities, bonds & gold would indicate we are in or will be in a deflation period...
But we need to see more than one day of this type of action to firmly come to this conclusion...
So where did the money flow to today ?  The US Dollar ?

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GLD weekly chart

 GLD weekly chart from July 2011 with an overbought oversold oscillator below...
If the declining tops on the oscillator gets broken to the upside, that action may indicate that we may have a decent rally on GLD...
Until then GLD should be in some kind of a base building pattern...

 Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GE vs $EUR see the similarities

These are the monthly charts of GE and $EUR (Euro) from 1992 to the present...
How amazingly similar they are...


Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Astro chart vs the S&P 500

The above shows the S&P 500, in the top chart, compared to an astrology chart just below.
The peaks in the astro chart are, April 2010, July 2011 and March 2012.
We are currently in the window of another peak in the astro chart and a potential top in the S&P 500.
These peaks do not have any correlation to a short term, intermediate or major tops, just that some kind of top is probable.
The use of additional indicators must be used to help time and confirm this action at all times.


Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Druckenmiller: I See Storm Coming, Bigger Than 2008

This is a must see...
Stan Druckenmiller interviewed by Bloomberg...
Here is the link...

http://bloom.bg/Xfrr8Y