Short Term Cycle Update

On March 31st the cycles forecast was:

Bullish bias into April 1-2, then a

bearish bias into April 10th

When we approached the April 10th window we watched short term indicators more closely.

The following is a screen shot of one indicator.

This morning it was oversold.

Since Thursday is April 10th and the forecast short term cycle bottom, watch for any pull back into that window +/- a day.

The next forecast short term cycle top is believed to be April 17th +/-

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Short Term Cycles Update Reviewed

On March 31st the cycles forecast was:

Bullish bias into April 1-2, then a
bearish bias into April 10th

The market rallied into this time frame and made an final top in the first hour on April 4th.

So far the original cycles forecast has not changed, so, stay tuned and watch for further updates.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Short Term Market Cycles Update

Bullish bias into April 1-2, then a
bearish bias into April 10th


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Is the Stock Market Getting Ready to Turn Soon?

Posted May 20,2011

As of March 25,2014

JNK - SPDR High Yield Bond ETF
TLT - Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

The last time these charts were presented as a post in this blog was on, May20,2011,  April 21,2011 & April 14,2011...
To better understand this post, please read the past posts and to see what happened in hindsight ...

As of today, there is a negative divergence in these charts...
In other words the JNK:TLT chart is not confirming the high in the SPX with a corresponding high in the JNK:TLT chart...

As seen at the top of this blog, maybe it is best said as follows... "Confidence is contagious. So is lack of confidence" -Vince Lombardi


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

A Cycle Update

A cycle top on January 27,2014 may be a warning sign.
Two previous and very similar cycle tops were warning signs before significant stock market sell offs.
One came 51 days before the market slide began and the other one came 62 days before another market slide began.
If these two previous events are used as a guide, then adding 51 days and 62 days respectively to the January 27th cycle top results in a window of March 19 to March 30,2014.
This is a potential window to watch for additional signs of a stock market top and a potential sell off to begin, but, there is no guarantee that this window cannot be extended into April.  Or that a sell off is going to happen.   But if history is going to repeat itself, one should be cautious and act accordingly.
Mark Twain said "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme"


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mid-Day Update for Monday March 24,2014

The previous short term cycles, discussed on Thursday March 20,2014,  topped on Friday's open.   The downside pressure did not follow through to Monday morning at the open, but, it did shortly thereafter and at this writing the averages are: DJIA -65 & SP500 -15.
Watching it for a short term bottom and a positive theme for the rest of the week.
Note that it is the end of the quarter and therefore window dressing is common here.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warren Buffett's "Total Market Cap to GDP Ratio"

Money News published an article On March 20,2014 titled
"Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014

See this article using the following link
http://nws.mx/1oIemR1

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Today's Update

The cycle top suggested for Thursday carried over to this mornings open.   On the 15 min chart there was a Japanese shooting star candle in the first 15 min of trading.  A bearish pattern.   By the afternoon the market retreated at least 50% and now it is only up 6 points.  Triple witching days are volatile.
But yesterdays cycle suggestion also indicated a possible short term bottom on Monday.  So far today's action helps that scenario.  Weak Fridays sometimes bring on weak Mondays.


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Short Term Cycles

The short term cycle top is Thursday March 20th and the short term cycle bottom is Monday March 24th.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

one SPY Daily Oscillator and more

Lower tops and lower bottoms, so far.
But the stock market keeps grinding higher. 
Watch for signs of a possible top developing.
How?
For beginners, you can start at StockCharts.com - Chart School
Then to learn how to apply that knowledge one good book to read is "Successful Stock Signals for Traders and Portfolio Managers" by Tom Lloyd Sr.
For seasoned traders and investors, please feel free to leave a comment and share some of your ideas!

On Sunday March 2,2014, see the post, "Watch March 14-17", this post nailed the pullback into Friday March 14,2014 two weeks before it happened using cycles.

Current State of the Market - possible backing and filling between now and the end of the month, then a little push up into mid April, then a potential sell off into July 2014, as suggested in several prior posts on this blog.

Important posts to review on this blog can be found on these dates:
December 17,2013
January 7,2014
February 26,2014
The information in these posts are very important and further research should be done by you to get a better understanding.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Todays End of Day Chart of the DJIA

Courtesy of Worden Bros

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Article by Sy Harding worth reading

Safe Havens Are Trouncing Stocks So Far in 2014

Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/safe-havens-are-trouncing-stocks-so-far-in-2014-2014-3#ixzz2vWijIxYR

http://read.bi/MZU7ju

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

S&P500 vs Margin Debt & GDP

Last week there were many posts online showing Margin Debt in relationship to the S&P500 and the GDP.
Here are a few of these charts.

One observation is that there seems to be a correlation between margin debt (investor positive and negative credit balances) and the S&P500
Second observation is that high margin debt tops out before the S&P500 and the converse was observed as well


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Investors Intelligence stock market sentiment

Courtesy of Investors Intelligence

Note this chart is dated January 7,2014.
Stock market sentiment extremes should not be used as trading signals per se, but, should be used as guidance.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

 Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPY SCTR update

Courtesy of StockCharts.com

SCTR - StockCharts Technical Rating
This was last updated on Sept 24,2013.
Further divergences are noted.



This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

S&P500 chart as of Friday Feb 28,2014

Chart Courtesy of Worden Bros.

This chart, among many others, is reviewed daily.  Occasionally, if the settings on the oscillator/s start to whipsaw or just stop giving timely signals, they are readjusted to fit the most recent price pattern.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.
  

Watch March 14-17 !

- An excerpt from the March 2014 Forecast by Richard Nolle

"Having already spent much time developing and illustrating by historical example what Mars Max means – see my article on the subject, or check the full version of my 2014 World Forecast Highlights – suffice it to say that the peak Mars Max that we’re in this month and next is a time when "fires, crashes, clashes and explosions" will dominate the headlines. Be ready, be cautious, be safe – all through March (and into April), but most especially around the 1st, the 16th-19th, and the 31st."


While I read the above mentioned March 2014 Forecast this morning, I recalled that the March 16-19 dates sounded familiar.   It just so happens that these dates coincide with the March 2014 stock market astro forecast I prepared which calls for a mid month pullback into March 14-16.  Since March 16th falls on a Sunday, many times a forecast date that falls out on a weekend may carry over to the trading days on Friday and or Monday.


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPX monthly chart

Courtesy of eSignal

 

 

 

If this monthly elliott wave count is correct then 1370.58 should be support for a wave 4 counter trend correction.   If it is broken decisively then the wave labeled so far as 1, 2, 3 waves of a 5 wave impulse wave, will be redrawn.  

2014 WARNING
Lucien Hooper, a Forbes columnist in the 1970's, devised the Dow Jones December Low Indicator.   According to this indicator, danger lies ahead when the lowest December price of the DJIA is surpassed by a lower price in the first quarter of the following year.   Then more bearish market movement is likely to follow.   THIS OCCURRED ON JANUARY 31,2014.

THE 4th YEAR OF A DECADE
In general the 4th year (2004, 1994, 1984, 1974, etc) has had weakness.
Go back to your charts and see.

MID TERM YEARS ARE BEST, says Sy Harding !
Read his book, BEAT THE MARKET THE EASY WAY
Good buying opportunities occur.

THE 5th YEAR OF A DECADE
History has shown that the 5th year (2005, 1995, 1985, 1975, etc.) has had a great record of being up.
In this case 2015 follows the mid-term year 2014.

Base on the above, the "probability" is that we can have a 10-20% correction this year and it "could" be a buying opportunity.   But, as always, be careful and invest wisely and consult a trained professional adviser.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SPY daily chart with Oscillator

This daily chart of SPY was updated as of today's closing price.


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

This Week In The Stock Market

                                          Courtesy of www.PretzelCharts.com

The market bottomed this week on Wednesday Feb 5th.
Based on the chart above the rally has to fail in a few weeks and start to turn down for this scenario to stay in play.
On another note, JustSignals posted:
Astro Forecast for the S&P500
           on May 13,2011      http://bit.ly/1f499Mf
Our May 13th Forecast Turn out to Be Very Accurate 
           on October 12,2011     http://bit.ly/1iGOv8L
Recap of the May 2011 Forecast and Where Are We Now  
           on December 17, 2013     http://bit.ly/JCK57a

The current Astro Forecast Charts still forecast for a rally or relief rally into late February or March +/- and then to resume the down trend. 

Conclusion: The Astro Forecast is still forecasting a bottom in the stock market in 3Q 2014 +/- and "maybe" the 1929 comparison should be watched.  

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.