chart: SPY weekly bearish candle

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Short Term Update

The following was posted on September 1,2015
Todays comments are in Blue

Short term details:(every date is +/-)
Sept 1   high  the high was one day early on Aug 31st 
Sept 2  low   low was on Sept 1
Sept 4  high   high was on Sept 3rd
Sept 5  low (Saturday, so +/-)  low was on Sept 4th
Sept 10-13  high (Sept 13th is Sunday, so +/-)  high was on Sept 17th
Sept 26  low Sept 26 is Saturday, so +/-)   * cycles suggest a low Sept 21st high Sept 22nd and a low on Sept 26th - the cycles do NOT give any hints if the Sept 21 low will be higher or lower than the Sept 26 low - So just look for a low between Sept 21 & Sept 26 - Watch your indicators for hints of low.
Oct 5 -high

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chart: S&P500 2015 vs 2011

Courtesy of @Callum_Thomas

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chart:SP500 daily & 60min

The above chart is the Daily chart of the S&P500.  The indicator is in an oversold area since the August 24th selloff and is moving up.

The above chart is the 60min chart of the S&P500.  The indicator is approaching an overbought area. 


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charts: Sentiment

Courtesy if @sentimentrader

In the two charts below you can see the daily price action at the previous two extreme lows in the above chart.  One at March 1995 and the other at September 2011.

Courtesy of Worden Bros

Courtesy of Worden Bros

Courtesy of @Callum_Thomas

Courtesy of @Callum_Thomas

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chart: Chaikin: Fed tightening vs SPX

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

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Rydex Funds Market Cap at Turns

First posted on September 10,2015
Updates in BLUE - Each of the funds below inched closer to their extreme readings

RYFXX - Rydex US Government Money Market
RYNVX - Rydex Nova Fund Investor Class (Long Fund)
RYURX -  Rydex Inverse S&P 500® Strategy Fund Investor Class (Inverse Fund)

RYFXX   3-10-09   $1,367Mil   3-10-15   $655Mil   9-9-15   $1,434Mil
                                                                                   9-14-15  $1,451Mil    
RYNVX  3-11-09   $21.96 Mil  5-14-15    $177Mil   9-4-15       $53Mil 
                                                                                    9-14-15      $52Mil
RYURX   3-9-09        $353Mil   5-4-15   $58.34Mil   9-9-15    $148Mil
                                                                                    9-14-15   $172Mil

The interesting data is that the Money Market Fund is higher now than at March 2009.
The Long Fund is $124Mil $125Mil less now than at 5-14-15, but not as low as it was in March 2009.
The Inverse Fund is $90Mil $114Mil more now than at 5-4-15, but not as high as it was in March 2009.

Note that in March 2015 and in May 2015 the stock market made highs.  So the RYFXX, RYNVX and the RYURX were at extremes.  They are at extremes now but not all time extremes.

More evidence of a possible bottom, or near a bottom.


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chart: week 38, weakest week since 1950

By  Chad Gassaway, CMT

Next week (week 37) is the 8th strongest week of the year. The following week is the weakest since 1950.

Courtesy of Chad Gassaway, CMT

Courtesy of Chad Gassaway, CMT

This makes sense because many Funds Portfolio Managers fiscal year ends September 30.   They use the last month of their fiscal year to sell their dogs to raise cash for new stocks that they would like to own in their new year.  Right now their are many stocks trading below their 50, 100 & 200 DMA, so clean up may be in order again this September.


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chart:McClellan VIX above Futures

Courtesy of McClellan Financial Publications

Courtesy of McCellan Financial Publications

Courtesy of McClellan Financial Publications

September 10,2015
 
The August 2015 minicrash caused the spot VIX Index to move up above the price level of all of its futures contracts, which currently extend out to May 2016.  That is another way of saying that the options traders whose actions determine the level of the VIX are more nervous than the VIX futures traders believe is appropriate.
During a protracted uptrend, it can be a wonderful sign of a short term bottom to see such a development.  It says that fear has reached an extreme, and that bottom fishers can do well by taking advantage of the situation.  The chart above shows that if someone had “bought” the market at any of the times when this condition has appeared over the past 3 years (at least prior to August 2015), he would have come out really well on the trade.
But that is only true during an uptrend.  Taking a longer look back shows that during a protracted downtrend, the spot VIX can stay above the level of all of its futures contract for a long time, and it is a really bad idea to bottom fish based on just that criterion.  In fact at one point in the autumn of 2008, the VIX was continually above all of its futures contracts for a period of 3 full months.


Use the following link to view the entire article
http://bit.ly/1Q4RQ1r

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chart: 10DMA of Highs-Lows

For the first time in a while the 10DMA of Highs - Lows has made a higher high.
Up till now the chart was in a down trend with lower highs and lower lows.

This may be more evidence of a stock market that is trying to find a bottom if it already did not find one.

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Rydex Funds Market Cap at Turns

RYFXX - Rydex US Government Money Market
RYNVX - Rydex Nova Fund Investor Class (Long Fund)
RYURX -  Rydex Inverse S&P 500® Strategy Fund Investor Class (Inverse Fund)

RYFXX   3-10-09   $1,367Mil   3-10-15   $655Mil   9-9-15   $1,434Mil

RYNVX  3-11-09   $21.96 Mil  5-14-15    $177Mil   9-4-15       $53Mil 

RYURX   3-9-09        $353Mil   5-4-15   $58.34Mil   9-9-15    $148Mil 

The interesting data is that the Money Market Fund is higher now than at March 2009.
The Long Fund is $124Mil less now than at 5-14-15, but not as low as it was in March 2009.
The Inverse Fund is $90Mil more now than at 5-4-15, but not as high as it was in March 2009.

Note that in March 2015 and in May 2015 the stock market made highs.  So the RYFXX, RYNVX and the RYURX were at extremes.  They are at extremes now but not all time extremes.

More evidence of a possible bottom, or near a bottom.


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chart: S&P500 daily

The yellow lines indicate where the market was oversold and in a potential buy area since 2012.  We are currently in one of those areas now. 
Note that in approximately June 2012 the market did re test the bottom and it did make a new lower low.  So, don't rule out the possibility of that happening this time too.  It is not necessary but it certainly can happen.
On September 6th a few charts from Chaikin Analytics were posted and they were short term overbought.  When they become oversold again and probably that "may" happen in the next 1, 2 or 3 weeks as September is the weakest month of the year, we will then be entering a more favorable time of the year and this could bring in a year end rally that the intermediate term cycles have been suggesting.
Do NOT forget the major sell signal posted on September 4th.  The monthly and weekly charts do not move fast like the daily chart and when we get overbought again on the daily chart it is unlikely that the monthly and weekly charts will reverse trend and give a buy signal.  As long as the they are both still on a sell signal, the next time the daily chart is in an overbought area and gives a sell signal there is always the possibly of much more downside volatility.  If not the first time it is over bought then surely the time after that, as time will be running out with the bull.


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chart: NYSE 30min

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Chaikin Power Gauge Ratings

Data Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

The following link will take you to the discussion on Chaikins Power Gauge
http://chaikinanalytics.com/resources/desktop/power-gauge-rating.html


The following is a very interesting excerpt from the above link

Power Gauge Rating

Overview

The Chaikin Power Gauge Rating (PGR) is the core of the Chaikin Analytics system. It combines 20 factors into a simple, reliable indication of a stock’s potential performance relative to the market over the next 1-6 months, and is supported by 10 years of independent backtesting.

The model looks at the following components:

• Financial Metrics
• Earnings Performance
• Price/Volume Activity
• Expert Opinions.

How is it computed?

How Do I use it?

Components and Factors ---> goto the link above

*For a discission on the above goto the link provided above


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chart: DJIA stocks above 10DMA

Courtesy of IndexIndicators.com

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chart: McClellan's Proportional Price Oscillator

Courtesy of McClellan Financial Publications

Comments by JustSignals
With the addition of the yellow highlights and the red & green trend lines you can make certain assumptions.  Since 2008 there were four times this chart was oversold.  In 3 of the 4 times the market tested the lows.  When the lows were tested the PPO made a higher low.  This positive divergence was constructive and a good buy indicator.  The problem is that this type of pattern is not necessary, but, it is likely based "only" on probability.

Excerpts from the article written by Tom McClellan

Generally speaking, when the Price Oscillator is rising, that is bullish, and when it is falling that is bearish.  The positive and negative implications gain greater weight when the Price Oscillator is positive or negative.  In other words, a negative and falling Price Oscillator is more negative than if the Price Oscillator were falling while above zero.

When the Price Oscillator reaches extreme readings, those rules start to change, just as a bungee jumper experiences different types of acceleration or deceleration as the bungee cords reach their full extreme.  But the raw math of the calculation of the Price Oscillator contains one slight problem which makes identifying extreme values more difficult: the amplitudes increase as prices go higher.

Over short time periods, that is not so much of a problem.  But if we want to do a really long term comparison of Price Oscillator values, then it is best to add one more bit of math to the equation, and create what we call the Proportional Price Oscillator or PPO.  Its calculation involves taking the regular Price Oscillator (10%T minus 5%T) and then dividing it by each day’s closing price. 

The chart above shows the PPO for the DJIA, dating back to 2008.  The rapid price drop in August 2015 has already created a pretty oversold reading for this indicator, the equivalent of what we saw in 2011 after the end of QE2, and of the low in 2010 following the post-QE1 Flash Crash and its ensuing aftermath.  So on that basis, an argument can be made that enough damage has been done to stock prices, and that we should be looking upward from here.

But that argument presumes that the stock market is still in a very long term uptrend, and so that uptrend rules for oversold conditions still apply.  But when we look back at how the market behaved in the 2008 bear market, we find that different rules of interpretation must be applied.

During the 2008 bear market, we saw much lower readings for the DJIA’s PPO.  So yes, Virginia, the market really can get more oversold than this.  In a bear market, the oversold readings only lead to temporary pauses in the decline, and then more downward movement ensues.  So before one can properly interpret the current oversold reading in the PPO (or any other indicator), one must first determine one’s assumptions about whether this is really a bear market, or just a “correction”. 

If you are not ready to make that determination for yourself, then the Price Oscillator can help.  It can reveal to us, with a lag, that a supposed bull market bounce is failing when it turns back downward while still below zero.  Notice how that happened several times during the 2008 bear market.  Each time a Price Oscillator turns down while still below zero, it conveys the “promise” of a lower closing low on the ensuing move.  Please note that “promise” is not the same thing as “guarantee”.  The promise of a lower closing low can be revoked if prices turn back up again promptly. 

Use the following link to read the full article
http://bit.ly/1XFXwEV

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Chaikin charts: DIA IWM SPY QQQ

Last time Chaikin charts were posted was on August 19,2016

Review these past posts to get a better sense of the bigger picture
Post July 29,2016 - September is the weakest month of the year
Post Aug 12,2015 - chart of the 7th Year of the Presidential Cycle
Post Aug 19,2015 - Chaikin charts: DIA IWM SPY QQQ
Post Sept 2,2015 - Bottom Finder
Post Sept 3,2015 - The Magic of 150 Months
Post Sept 5,2015 - Fear Greed Index over time

Comments
Several of the above posts gave hints of a potential sell off.  September is the weakest month of the year, chart of the 7th year of the presidential cycle and the magic of 150 months.  In looking for times to take advantage of a potential sell off were the Chaikin charts.  Posted on Aug 19,2015 were four index charts.  Each was trading below Chaikin's proprietary 200MA.  Each indicated WEAK trends.  Three out of four had weak RS.  All four charts had weak CMF as the market went from OS to OB.  This was evidence of a potential sell off in addition to the information in the posts noted above.  What happened was the market sold off earlier than expected in August, but, in accordance with the indicators in the Chaikin charts.

Now what should we expect ?  To help answer see the charts below for DIA IWM SPY QQQ
Again the price is below Chaikin's 200DMA, Trend is weak, 3 of 4 RS indicators are weak and the CMF is weak as the indexes moved from OS to at or near OB.

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

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charts: Fear Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN

Courtesy of CNN

Recent important postings
Post 9/3/15 - The magic of 150 months - September 2015 low
Post 9/5/15 - Fear Greed index - Suggests an oversold market
Post 9/2/15 - Bottom Finder - Suggests an oversold market
Post 9/4/25 - Major Sell - Suggests that an aging bull market is coming to an end soon

Summary
The evidence is that an aging bull market is coming to an end soon, but, not before one last rally.  The oversold condition of the market appears to be similar to the period of October 2014.  If a rally materializes, it is probable based on LT cycles that a high may develop in the period of November and or February +/-.  From today's assessment, this is a likely time frame before the bear takes hold.  This is also consistent with the subsequent price action in the last two major sell signals in the 9/4/15 post.  

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charts: MAJOR SIGNAL

"IF" THE WEEKLY SPY CLOSES TODAY LOWER THAN 195.62, ANOTHER SELL SIGNAL WILL BE GENERATED SIMILAR TO THE OCTOBER 2000 & MARCH 2008 SELL SIGNALS.

In the following charts you will see how the monthly SPY used with the weekly SPY has been an excellent signal filter in the past 20 years.  Sell signals in the monthly SPY has confirmed sell signals in the weekly SPY.  When the monthly SPY was on a buy signal and the weekly SPY gave a sell signal it was short lived and therefore the sell signal failed. 

The following is a good example of what anyone can do with eSignal or similar platform and some ingenuity. 

Courtesy of eSignal

In the monthly SPY chart above sell signals are highlighted in yellow in October 2000, March 2008 & August 2015

Courtesy of eSignal

In the weekly SPY chart above the sell signal highlighted in yellow after the monthly October 2000 sell signal occurred November 27,2000.  Note that weekly signals that did not occur with monthly signals were failures.

Courtesy of eSignal

In the weekly SPY chart above the sell signal closest to the monthly March 2008 sell signal highlighted in yellow occurred December 31,2007.  In this case the weekly sell signal could have been a failure, but, it was confirmed as the monthly SPY did generate a sell signal a few months later.  Again, note that weekly signals that did not occur with monthly signals were failures.

Courtesy of eSignal

In the weekly SPY chart above the sell signal "MAY" happen at today's weekly close if the SPY closes below 195.62.  The monthly SPY already has generated a sell signal at the close of August 2015.  So all we have to do is wait for the close today to see if another MAJOR SELL SIGNAL is generated.  Again, note that weekly signals that did not occur with monthly signals were failures.

*On any major sell signal it does NOT mean that the market goes straight down.  In fact you can see in the last two and only two signals shown above that the market acted different both times.  This means that the market can act differently this time too.  The possibility for marginal new highs can never be ruled out either while the sell signals do not revert back to buy signals.  But, until the signals turn bullish, the market trend is up and not down, etc, etc, etc, rallies can be sold and watch your indicators carefully for ANY changes.

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chart: The Magic of 150 Months

Courtesy of McClellan Financial Publications

Refer to the following link for the full article
http://bit.ly/1O0QMgq

From the work of Tom McClellan and Peter Eliades
The basic point is that a period of 150 months (12.5 years) shows up in lots of places as the time distance between several important turning points for stock prices.  The price data in the chart this week is the log value of the monthly close of the DJIA.  Using log scaling allows us to better see the turning points without the effect of arithmetic scaling interfering with the view.
Readers should understand that this is not meant to show a 150-month cycle persisting throughout history.  Rather, it is an interesting coincidence that if you count forward by about 150 months from almost any major price turning point (high or low), you find another one, although not necessarily of the same type.  There are probably even more such relationships than just the ones shown here.
As we noted in the newsletter article, the 150-month period is related to a longer 393-month turning point pattern by virtue of the Fibonacci ratio.  Multiply 150 times 2.618 and you get 393.  Alternatively, if you multiply 393 by 0.382, you get 150.  It works backwards and forwards.

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charts: DJIA daily & weekly

DJIA daily chart

Courtesy of eSignal

DJIA weekly chart

Courtesy of eSignal

Both of the above charts are showing 3 of 5 Elliott Waves (EW) down as of today.  This EW count can change based on the future price pattern if it does not unfold in classic impulse wave form.
The DJIA bounced off of 16000 as suggested but hit resistance as suggested by today's price bar.  At the time of this writing it looks like a Japanese Candle "Shooting Star". 
(A long upper shadow indicates that the Bulls controlled the ball for part of the game, but lost control by the end and the Bears made an impressive comeback.)
If we cannot get much higher and the daily chart EW count is an impulse wave down then it will have stopped the short term rally at wave 4 and we will continue down to test the bottom of wave 3 at last Monday's low and complete 5 waves down before we start to rally.
JustSignals short term cycles suggests that last Monday's low is "likely" to be tested during Sept 10-13 and Sept 21-26 +/- .
The market sentiment has been very bearish lately.  The market is also very oversold and as oversold as it was in Oct 2014.  One more pullback here is NOT necessary but it will help make a better bottom for a year end rally.

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Chart of the Day - BNCN

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics

Info from Chaikin Analytics
Power Gauge - very bullish
Technicals - Strong
Industry - Strong
Signals  - Strong

Chaikin Report - 9/3/15, 09:16
Power Gauge Rating - Very Bullish
Financials - Bullish
Earnings - Very Bullish
Technicals - Very Bullish
Experts - Very Bullish

Chart indicators
Price above Chaikin proprietary 200 DMA
CMF - Green
OBOS - OS in buy area
RS - Green
Chaikin Power Gauge - Green

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chart: Bottom Finder

Courtesy of StockCharts.com

In the last three plus years there are five times when this indicator is in the same oversold buy area.  Each is highlighted in yellow.

Summary:
It is calculated by counting the number of Dow stocks whose short-term (daily) KST is in the winter and spring positions. The indicator itself is the differential between them. As progressively more groups experience winter relative to spring the indicator falls. When this differential starts to reverse to the upside the indicator bottoms, and a buy signal is generated. Note that the actual data is plotted inversely so that movements in the indicator correspond to those of the Dow, S&P or any other market average that it is being compared to.

In order for a reversal to qualify we must see the indicator fall to its oversold levels and then reverse. These signals are usually reliable, but by no means a perfect indicator. For this reason a more conservative approach is to wait for a positive MA crossover not shown in the above chart. The MA to be used is a 10-day SMA. Even so, in the vast majority of reversals that develop at or below the oversold condition do so in a slow deliberate manner with very little in the way of false upside reversals.

 This indicator is pretty good at calling bottoms, even counter-cyclical ones, but it’s important to note that this is its only function in life. Occasionally it can call a top with a timely reversal from an extended level but there are far too many exceptions to apply this approach, because the indictor has been specifically designed to identify short-term buying opportunities.

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chart: DJU 60min

Courtesy of eSignal

This 60min chart is suggesting that one leg down is finding support in the area of the June 2015 bottom.  This is also evident in the suggested EW structure of 5 waves down.  Over time this wave count can change if the count does not hold to the EW rules, so this "may not" be written in stone and must be watched for any changes in the wave count.  The trend lines are a very good confirmation of the direction in trend.

General Market Comments
After reviewing all 30 DJIA charts, it looks like the market is trying to find some kind of short term bottom.  This would also be in line with the recent short term update posted.  If we do find a short term bottom shortly as the short term cycles are suggesting then we may have an upward bias into the Sept10-13 time frame.  After that the short term cycles suggest some more action to the downside from Sept 10-13 to Sept 26.  More on this later.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart: SPY Monthly signal

Courtesy of eSignal

SPY montly chart
1-The August 2015 price bar broke below the bottom Andrews pitchfork trendline
2-In the middle window the blue MA crossed down below the red MA as it did back in 2000 & 2008
3-In the bottom window the oscillator is in the bottom half, below zero.  As long as it stays in the lower half of this chart the market will continue to be weak.
4-Historical data shows September is the weakest month of the year
5-The 7th year of the Presidential cycle suggested a weak market in this time frame.  See chart posted on Aug12th.

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Fear Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN at 10:04am

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Short Term Update & The Shemitah

The following was posted on August 18,2015
Todays comments are in BOLD

Short term details:(every date is +/-)
Aug 4 high    On Aug 3rd for DJUA and on Aug 5th for IWM, QQQ, DJTA, DJIA, SPY
Aug 8 low     Made on Aug 7-8
Aug 13 high   At the close a high was made intraday
Aug 19-20  low  with some jiggle around Aug 15-17 The jiggle came in early on Aug 14-17   The forecast low of Aug 19-20 did not hold and the weakness carried over to Friday Aug 21st.  As noted in the past, Friday trends can carry over to Monday and this one did big time.
Aug 21     high   This of course did not happen and as noted in the past, Friday trends can carry over to Monday and this one did big time.
Aug 21-27  cycles suggest some chop & slop   Chop & slop was an understatement.  It was more like a cyclone.
Sept 1   high  At this writing the high was one day early on Aug 28th.  
Sept 2  low
Sept 4  high
Sept 5  low (Saturday, so +/-)
Sept 10-13  high (Sept 13th is Sunday, so +/-)
Sept 26  low Sept 26 is Saturday, so +/-)
 
Note that Sept 13 is a partial solar eclipse and the Shemitah and Sept 27 is a total lunar eclipse

The following is courtesy of CharismaNews.com

It all starts with the end of the Shemitah year on Sept. 13. During the last two cycles, we witnessed historic stock market crashes on the very last day of the Shemitah year (Elul 29 on the Biblical calendar). For example, if you go back to Sept. 17, 2001 (which was Elul 29 on the biblical calendar), we witnessed the greatest one-day stock market crash in all of U.S. history up until that time. The Dow plunged 684 points, and it was a record that held for exactly seven years until the end of the next Shemitah cycle.

On Sept. 29, 2008 (which was also Elul 29 on the biblical calendar), the Dow plummeted 777 points, which still today remains the greatest one-day stock market crash of all time in the United States.

Now we are in another Shemitah year. It began in the fall 2014, and it ends on Sept. 13, 2015.

So will we see a stock market crash in the United States on Sept. 13, 2015?

No we will not, because that day is a Sunday. So I can guarantee there will not be a stock market crash in the U.S. on that day. But as author Jonathan Cahn has pointed out in his book on the Shemitah, we have witnessed major stock market crashes happen just before the end of the Shemitah year and we have also witnessed major stock market crashes happen within just a few weeks after the end of the Shemitah year. So we are not necessarily looking at one particular date.

More as we approach Sept 13th and then Sept 26th

The following is Courtesy of SilverDoctors.com
The early July lows at 17,465 on the DOW, 2044 on the S&P 500, the 4901 on the Nasdaq will not hold this summer as the July lows are expected to break into new lows and a new bear market cycle of lower lows and lower highs begins.  This Bear Market Cycle is expected to put in a devastating crash cycle low in 2016 on the 50-year Jubilee.

Summer is NOT over and the rest of August is NOT looking good for the Stock Market, the July lows referenced above are still expected to break in this month.  If they all break or not in the near term, the long term cycle into 2016 is a crash cycle down.

A US Stock Market Crash in September?

Interestingly, the cycle analysis does not indicate a Stock Market crash is expected in September even though many are expecting a crash in September, based off the 7-year Shemitah cycle.  This 7^th year comes to an end on September 13, 2015 (elul 29), only to be immediately followed a Jubilee (50^th) year beginning September 14, 2015 and ending in September 2016.  Even though the last two 7-years cycles both caused Stock Market crashes on the exact day of elul 29; in this case neither of the prior 2 cycles were followed by a Jubilee year.  So the ‘suddenly’ referenced above is not expected in September on elul 29; but later this year and that cycle time point we included in our Stock Index.

Therefore, those expecting a Stock Market crash on elul 29 (September 13, 2015), expect to be disappointed; for it is the following year of Jubilee that is expected to bring all the devastation to the world stock markets!

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