Short Term Update

Short Term - the following has been suggested for many weeks in this blog
June 18-19 - poss top - high occurred on June 18th 

June 26 - possible low - Low so far occurred on June 29th - Note that this blog recently wrote "It is possible that Friday's volatility "might" carryover to Monday.  Monday's on many occasions have inherited Friday's volatility.", and this happened again today.

June 30 to July 8 & may be to July 13  - cycles suggest a potential consolidation period with a possible bias to the upside.

July 23-29 - possible low


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Short Term Update

Today on Twitter there was a chart by SeeItMarket.com on the 7th year of the Presidential cycle (this occurs when a President serves two terms).  In addition, their link takes you to an article which included another chart on the 3rd year of the Presidential cycle.  Both the 7th year and the 3rd year of the Presidential cycles fall in this year, 2015.
Here are those charts.

courtesy of SeeItMarket.com

Both of these charts show a rough several months just ahead before a year end rally.  Of course, both of these charts are the "averages" of several 3rd and 7th years.

Now to take a look at the short term and intermediate term cycles.  Both suggest some volatility in the months ahead much like the two charts above suggest. 

Short Term - the following has been suggested for many weeks in this blog, but, it also is similar to the 3rd year Presidential chart above 
June 19 - possible high
June 26 - possible low
June 26 to July 8-13  - cycles suggest a potential consolidation period
July 29 - possible low

Intermediate Term - The following is also similar to the 7 year Presidential chart above
June, July, August - high
September, October - low

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Short Term Update

After the cycles suggested an move up into June 10th the forecast was for some consolidation or pullback into June 11-12 +/-, which came as forecast.

It is possible that today's volatility "might" carryover to Monday.
Monday's on many occasions have inherited Friday's volatility. 

ZACKS on Monday Volatility
Monday volatility captures most observers' votes, as it follows two days of market inactivity. Many corporations make earnings and operations announcements after the Friday market close to mitigate the stock price effects of major public or shareholder information. The two-day inactivity period, regardless of major announcements, alone also contributes to increased investor activity, generating more volatility and trades. Weekend announcements of earnings, executive changes, mergers and acquisitions further increase volatility and activity.

JustSignals comments
Another observation has been that the market direction for the rest of the week, sometimes, has been in the opposite direction as that weeks Monday.  So, if Monday opens down or is down for the day, then one "might" expect the market to move up by the end of the week.  One explanation for this is that after a weak Friday weak hands are selling on Monday while the strong hands are buying and then take the market higher by then end of the week.

This scenario would fall in line with the current short term cycles view for some more upside into June 18-19 +/-.
  
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AAII Bullish %

Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD. and writer of the market newsletter, UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE,  once wrote that the stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25.

Recent dates when the AAII Bullish % was less than 25.00
June 9,2011    24.40  - Sell off into Aug 2011 before continuing higher
May 16,2012  23.60  - Market continued higher
July 18,2012   22.20  - Market continued higher
April 10,2013 19.30  - Market continued higher
June 10,2015  20.00  - ???

JustSignals posts for the intermediate cycles have been suggesting:
The intermediate forecast is for a top either on May 21+/- and or June 18-19+/- with a potential correction into July 29+/-.  The cycles then forecast a rally into November and or January.

So, similar action subsequent to June 9,2011 is a good possibility at this point based on the suggestions of the intermediate cycles and Aubie Baltin's interpretation of the AAII Bullish %.

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Short Term Update

Excerpts from original post on June 3,2015   

Today's comments, June 10th,  are in BLUE

The cycles have been performing well, but, what do they expect between today, June 3rd, and June 18-19? 

Today's Comments June 3rd
Today the cycles are suggesting some grinding up into June 10 +/-.
Although the short term cycles did not get closer to the June 3 +/- forecasted bottom, the market did bottom a few trading days later on June 9th.   The originally forecast grinding up from June 3 +/- ended up being a one day thrust up, catch up,  into the June 10th forecast date today.
Then some consolidation or pullback into June 11-12 +/- with the market trying to add some more to the upside into June 18-19 +/-.



June 18-19   poss top - From here the cycles suggest a bias up into June 18-19+/-.  Since June 19th is a Friday it may include Monday June 22nd so watch your indicators for evidence of a trend change.

July 29   poss low - more on this as we approach June 18-19


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Intermediate Term Update

Originally posted on
Friday, April 24, 2015

The intermediate forecast is for a top either on May 21+/- and or June 18-19+/- with a potential correction into July 29+/-.  The cycles then forecast a rally into November and or January.
Keep checking for further updates.

June 9,2015 Comments
So far this has been the case for the intermediate term.  The short term cycles missed the June 3 +/- low.  That forecast low did carryover several days.  The cycles are still suggesting some upside into June 18-19 +/-.  As always, watch your indicators for evidence of a trend change and JustSignals for more updates.



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Forecast Update

The cycles have been performing well, but, what do they expect between today, June 3rd, and June 18-19?

Today's Comments
Today the cycles are suggesting some grinding up into June 10 +/-.
Then some consolidation or pullback into June 11-12 +/- with the market trying to add some more to the upside into June 18-19 +/-.

May 21   poss top - This came right on time as forecasted.

June 2-3   poss  low - In the first 30min of trading on the morning of June 2 the market bottomed in our forecast window of June 2-3. 

June 18-19   poss top - From here the cycles suggest a bias up into June 18-19+/-.  Since June 19th is a Friday it may include Monday June 22nd so watch your indicators for evidence of a trend change. 

July 29   poss low - more on this as we approach June 18-19


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Forecast Update

From April 24,2015 post

DJIA
Cycles look like a consolidation period into May 21 with a slight bias to the upside, no real short term directions suggested by the cycles although some may develop along the way.

May 21   poss top - This came right on time as forecasted

June 2-3   poss  low - In the first 30min after the market opened yesterday morning this was posted, "Watch short term indicators to confirm this potential low".   As of this writing the futures are up, so the market probably bottomed early yesterday morning and in our forecast window, so far, of June 2-3.

June 18-19   poss top - From here the cycles suggest a bias up into June 18-19+/-.  Since June 19th is a Friday it may include Monday June 22nd so watch your indicators for evidence of a trend change.
 
July 29   poss low - more as we approach June 18-19

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Short Term Update

From April 24,2015

DJIA
Cycles look like a consolidation period into May 21 with a slight bias to the upside, no real short term directions suggested by the cycles although some may develop along the way.

May 21   poss top - This came right on time as forecasted

June 2-3   poss  low - Watch short term indicators to confirm this potential low

June 18-19   poss top
July 29   poss low

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Today's open

This is a screen shot of the 4min SPY for May 28, 29 & todays open.
Notice the increasing number of red lines going down as the market opened up.
This was a good indication that the open was being sold into.
Lets see what happens the rest of the day.

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Dow30 relative strength

This is the relative strength of the Dow30 stocks by three sources.  The top stocks by each source is highlighted in green. 
If this is becomes a popular item on this blog it will be posted weekly.

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SPY 60min chart

At the time of this post the SPY was 211.12

Short term cycles suggest  a short term low may occur on May 28-29 and then a short term high may occur on May 29 - June 1 before then next suggested low around June 3 +/-
Some of the indicators display some short term positive divergence.
Check your charts in the last 30min to see if that is still the case.

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Short Term Forecast

Originally posted on

Friday, April 24, 2015

Since this original post below was made on April 24,2015, the forecast, so far, has been correct.  
The SPY high was made on May 20th at 213.78 and on May 21st the SPY high was 213.75.  Then the market fell big on May 28th.

The cycle dates to watch are posted again below and are to be watched carefully along with indicator/oscillators to provide evidence of potential turns on these dates.

DJIA cycle dates to watch
DJIA
Cycles look like a consolidation period into May 21 with a slight bias to the upside, no real short term directions suggested by the cycles although some may develop along the way.
May 21   poss top - this came right on time
 *To add at this time, as the cycles suggest, a short term low may occur on May 28-29 and then a short term high may occur on May 29 - June 1 before then next suggested low around June 3 +/-.
June 3 +/-   poss  low
June 18-19   poss top
*Also, cycles suggest possible consolidation between June 26 and July 8 before some further downside cycle action is suggested.
July 29   poss low

The intermediate forecast is for a top either on May 21+/- and or June 18-19+/- with a potential correction into July 29+/-.  The cycles then forecast a rally into November and or January.
Keep checking for further updates.

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McClellan Summation Index

              McClellan Summation Index & SP500 from July 2014 to May 27, 2015

The McClellan Summation Index (SI) is another indicator that is displaying evidence of negative divergence in the stock market.  Others shown here are, buying pressure, High-Low 10DMA, daily VIX, etc.. 

The most recent high in the SI was recorded on May 13,2013 in the extended chart above produced by Worden Bros. TeleChart.  The SI has had lower highs since.

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Buying Pressure Update

                                  Chart dates from Oct 1, 2014 to May 27, 2015

The above charts are 1) top - SPY and 2) bottom - Buying Pressure of the SPY
The charts currently show a negative divergence going back to the buying pressure high on Nov 20, 2014.  It continued to make lower highs as the SPY was making higher highs. 

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Buying Pressure ???

The above charts are 1) top - SPY and 2) bottom - Buying Pressure of the SPY
The charts currently show a negative divergence.  The SPY has made higher highs and higher lows.  The Buying Power has been making lower highs and lower lows.

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SPY & the Hi Lo 10dma

Note the divergences.  SPY is in an uptrend defind by higher highs and higher lows.  The 10 dma of the Hi Lo chart is in a downtrend as defined by lower highs and lower lows.
Watch and see if the SPY breaks down and catches up to the Hi Lo chart or if the Hi Lo chart breaks the downtrend line to catch up to the SPY.
Other indicators are being watched to gather evidence of one of the suggested moves.

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6 Year Bull ... 7 ?

JustSignals follows both short term and long term cycles.  The longer term cycles have been and still does suggest that some kind of a correction is near along with a year end rally. 

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AAII - this weeks #'s

This morning the above was posted on Twitter.

Below is the DJIA chart of May & June 1988

If history is going to repeat itself, then we may be looking at a similar type correction before a year end rally.
If you are up to date with the posts in the blog then you know that the cycles discussed here are forecasting such a move.

To repeat:

Cycles look like a consolidation period into May 21 with a slight bias to the upside, no real short term directions suggested by the cycles although some may develop along the way.
May 21   poss top
June 2-3   poss  low
June 18-19   poss top
July 29   poss low

"History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme." -  Mark Twain

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Updated Forecast

Originally posted on

Friday, April 24, 2015

Since this original post below was made on April 24,2015, the forecast, so far, has been correct.  The cycle dates to watch are posted again below and are to be watched carefully along with indicator/oscillators to provide evidence of potential turns on these dates.

The intermediate forecast is for a top either on May 21+/- and or June 18-19+/- with a potential correction into July 29+/-.  The cycles then forecast a rally into November and or January. 
Keep checking for further updates.

DJIA cycle dates to watch
DJIA
Cycles look like a consolidation period into May 21 with a slight bias to the upside, no real short term directions suggested by the cycles although some may develop along the way.
May 21   poss top
June 2-3   poss  low
June 18-19   poss top
July 29   poss low

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Daily VIX update

This is the chart of today's daily VIX.
As previously posted, on April 8,2015, you should be watching this carefully.
Today the VIX broke above the trend line.
If you have been reading these posts you will know that the stock market is approaching a turning point but that can happen anytime soon and is over due.

Keep a careful watch on your indicators to confirm this move.

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SPY weekly chart and indicator

The chart above is the weekly SPY (top chart) and a weekly oscillator (bottom chart).
As the oscillator goes above 80 the SPY tends to get toppy.
We are there again.

Based on cycles, the next "area" to watch is coming up soon. (See the April 24,2015 post)

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DJIA cycle dates to watch

DJIA
Cycles look like a consolidation period into May 21 with a slight bias to the upside, no real short term directions suggested by the cycles although some may develop along the way.
May 21   poss top
June 2-3   poss  low
June 18-19   poss top
July 29   poss low

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Short Term Forecast

Review of the last Short Term Forecast Dates Made March 22nd

- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)

*) March 19-25
1) March 29 to April 3
2) April 5-7
3) April 12-13

COMMENTS

March 19 to 25 -DJIA topped on March 23rd

March 29 to April 3 - DJIA topped on March 30th and bottomed on April 1st - a tricky one

April 5 to 7 - DJIA stalled on April 6th

April 12 to 13 - DJIA at the time of this writing topped on April 13th

 

Following cycles has been good to use as a guide or as a potential future road map, but, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast trend change date.  

 

NEW SHORT TERM FORECAST DATES

- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)

The forecast dates from this week to the 2nd or 3rd week of May are not easy to interpret.
More time is needed to evaluate this time period due to what is perceive to be many cross currents and a possible sideways consolidation period.
More on this to be posted in a few days.

Since cycles do not distinguish between trading days and calendar days, the cycle dates may come out on Holidays or weekends.  So the dates suggested that do fall on such days are to be used as a window.   So, as always, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast cycle trends.  All forecast dates will still be noted with a "+/-" because the cycle dates are not always as perfect as we would like them to be.  Although they have been pretty accurate.   

Intermediate Term Forecast Trend Change Dates

Intermediate term - 

The following was posted on March 22nd - 

"at this time the Short Term Cycles and the Intermediate Term Cycles are not in sync. The Intermediate term cycles suggest that the DJIA maybe turning up in the February/March time frame into mid 2015 +/-.

After reviewing the short term cycles, it is likely that the DJIA may drop into late March or early April" 

After an early February bottom the DJIA grinded with a bullish bias with small pullbacks in late March and early April as forecast.

From here the Intermediate cycles still call for some more bullish bias into mid 2015 +/- and that could mean +/- a month or so.

 

*** Indicators and oscillators must be watched for moves in the market because we are at a time where sentiment is optimistic and dumb money is buying and smart money is selling.  

In the past this combination has been a catalyst for a correction.  

 

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A hint from the VIX

This is a chart of the daily VIX courtesy of eSignal. 
Since October 2014 we have had declining tops as indicated by the trend line.
When a break of this trend line occurs and drop in the stock market occurs.
The amount of the drop is hard to forecast.
So keep an eye on this one !

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Short Term Forecast

Review of the last Short Term Forecast Dates Made Feb 15th

- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)

1) March 3-5
2) March 7-11
3) March 13-15
4) March 19-25

COMMENTS

Feb 28th - At this point the DJIA made an intraday high on Feb 25thand this was the high and right in the forecast window.

March 3 to 5 - not much happened here.

March 7 to 11 - DJIA bottomed on March 11th.

March 13 to 15 - Volatility in this window although the DJIA made anothe bottom on March 13th.

March 19 to 25 - Cycles suggest a top in this window

Following cycles has been good to use as a guide or as a potential future road map, but, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast trend change date.  

 

NEW SHORT TERM FORECAST DATES

- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)

1) March 29 to April 3
2) April 5-7
3) April 12-13

Since cycles do not distinguish between trading days and calendar days, the cycle dates may come out on Holidays or weekends.  So the dates suggested that do fall on such days are to be used as a window.   So, as always, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast cycle trends.  All forecast dates will still be noted with a "+/-" because the cycle dates are not always as perfect as we would like them to be.  Although they have been pretty accurate.   

Intermediate Term Forecast Trend Change Dates

Intermediate term - at this time the Short Term Cycles and the Intermediate Term Cycles are not in sync. The Intermediate term cycles suggest that the DJIA maybe turning up in the February/March time frame into mid 2015 +/-.

After reviewing the short term cycles, it is likely that the DJIA may drop into late March or early April.

Indicators and oscillators must be watched for moves in the market because we are at a time where sentiment is optimistic and dumb money is buying and smart money is selling.  In the past this combination has been a catalyst for a correction.  A correction is over due and one would be healthy at this time and it would be a launching pad for another leg up.

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Short Term Forecast

Review of the last Short Term Forecast Dates Made Feb 15th

- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)

1) Feb 18th 

2) Feb 28th

 

COMMENTS

Feb 8-13th -  The DJIA had a minor top on Feb 6th (Feb 8th was a Sunday) and the DJIA was not much higher on Feb 13th.

Feb 18th - Feb 18th was a non event.  The market kept pushing higher.

Feb 28th - At this point the DJIA made an intraday high on Feb 25th

 

Following cycles has been good to use as a guide or as a potential future road map, but, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast trend change date.  

 

NEW SHORT TERM FORECAST DATES

- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)

1) March 3-5
2) March 7-11
3) March 13-15
4) March 19-25

 

Since cycles do not distinguish between trading days and calendar days, the cycle dates may come out on Holidays or weekends.  So the dates suggested that do fall on such days are to be used as a window.   So, as always, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast cycle trends.  All forecast dates will still be noted with a "+/-" because the cycle dates are not always as perfect as we would like them to be.  Although they have been pretty accurate.   

Intermediate Term Forecast Trend Change Dates

Intermediate term - at this time the Short Term Cycles and the Intermediate Term Cycles are not in sync. The Intermediate term cycles suggest that the DJIA maybe turning up in the February/March (a bottom was made on Feb 2nd) time frame into mid 2015 +/-.

After reviewing the short term cycles, it is likely that the DJIA may drop into late Feb to mid March.  The market did not correct in the second half of Feb as the seasonal charts and cycles suggested.  

Indicators and oscillators must be watched for moves in the market because we are at a time where sentiment is optimistic and dumb money is buying and smart money is selling.  In the past this combination has been a catalyst for a correction.  A correction is over due and one would be healthy at this time and it would be a launching pad for another leg up.

 

 

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Short Term Forecast

Review of the last Short Term Forecast Dates Made Jan 2nd

- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)

1) Jan 20-25th

2) Jan 28th

3) Feb 1-6th

4) Feb 8-13th

5) Feb 18th

 

COMMENTS

Jan 20-25th - The DJIA topped on Jan 22nd right in the trend change date window

Jan 28th -  The DJIA closing bottom occurred the next day

Feb 1-6th - The DJIA had a minor top on Jan 6th

Feb 8-13th - To be discussed in the next update

Feb 18th - To be discussed in the next update

 

Following cycles has been good to use as a guide or as a potential future road map, but, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast trend change date.  

 

NEW SHORT TERM FORECAST DATES

- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)

1) Feb 18th 

2) Feb 28th

3) Additional dates will be given between Feb 18th and Feb 28th and the price pattern tells us how it decides to unfold.

 

Since cycles do not distinguish between trading days and calendar days, the cycle dates may come out on Holidays or weekends.  So the dates suggested that do fall on such days are to be used as a window.   So, as always, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast cycle trends.  All forecast dates will still be noted with a "+/-" because the cycle dates are not always as perfect as we would like them to be.  Although they have been pretty accurate.   

Intermediate Term Forecast Trend Change Dates

Intermediate term - at this time the Short Term Cycles and the Intermediate Term Cycles are not in sync. The Intermediate term cycles suggest that the DJIA maybe turning up in the February/March time frame into at least mid 2015 +/-.

An earlier Intermediate term post on November 6,2014 stated, "cycles forecast at this time points up into mid to late November and then a down bias into December/January".  

The late November forecast turned out to be a top on Dec 5th and then the DJIA dropped into Dec 16-17.  It then rallied into a top on Dec 24-26 and then dropped again into a bottom on Feb 2nd.  The downward pressure forecast did occur, but, the DJIA displayed resilience. 

After reviewing the short term cycles, it is likely that the DJIA may drop into late Feb to mid March.  

The intermediate term cycles suggest that this may be the next and possibly the last entry point this year before a good rally.

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US Dollar Futures Record Long Position

Courtesy of J. Lyons Fund Management, Inc./My401kPro.com

The vertical lines were added to make it easier to line up the extreme net long positions with the US Dollar Index.

Commercial Hedgers tend to sell into strength and buy into weakness, just the oposite of Non-Commercial Speculators.

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