SPY vs 10day sum of new highs minus new lows...

When the SPY makes a lower low while the 10day sum of new highs minus new lows starts to rise, the positive divergence is a clue that we should be on the watch for a trend change.  This is what was happening until the 10day sum of new highs minus new lows just made a new lower low and we no longer have a positive divergence.  So we have to wait for that to happen again.  This "may" suggest that the market "may" not have made a bottom yet and there maybe more downside possible. 

In the past divergences appear at most turns in the market.  At the very least, the 10day sum of new highs minus new lows develops lower highs and lower lows at or near tops and higher highs and higher lows at or near bottoms.  

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Past performance is not indicative of future results.

$SPX daily chart...

It appears like the stock market is in a "Fishing for a Bottom" mode.
We may experience some more chop while it starts to base build.
From a good base we may get a rally.
The Picasso Cycle updates may give use a hint when this might happen.
The last Picasso Cycle high was posted on 10/1/18.
Use this link to read it...         https://bit.ly/2NeTjXx
See the last Picasso Cycle update for some information on this and continue to look for future Picasso Cycle updates when they are posted.

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Get more up to date charts and posts...

It is so easy to post on both Twitter.com and StockTwits.com that many charts and stock market comments that would ordinarily be posted here are posted on Twitter & StockTwits by  @JustSignals 

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Keep following @JustSignals using Twitter, StockTwits or Follow JustSignals on this Blog By Email.
Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. 
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Charts Updated: DIA SPY IYT

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy of ChaikinAnalytics.com

These charts are made simple and easy to read:
Yellow circle - Overbought/Oversold is Oversold
White circle - Price is still above the Moving Average
Green circle - Relative strength is at zero and still positive
Red Line - Falling from Overbought to Oversold while Relative Strength was getting more positive
Green Line  - Rising Relative Strength while going from Overbought to Oversold

The DIA & SPY charts were standouts when reviewing the charts of DIA, SPY, IYT, QQQ, IWM, MDY, SLY.    DIA & SPY showed the strongest Relative Strength.  Currently, there maybe a flight to quality.  That is, the market maybe selling small and mid cap stocks and buying large cap stocks.  In addition, with interest rates spiking higher and bonds selling off, there maybe a shift from bonds to large cap stocks as well.

The charts mentioned above, with the exception of QQQ, were oversold by the ChaikinAnalytics.com method.  QQQ was neutral.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. 
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

STIX Stock Market Indicator

STIX indicator is the short-term index measuring the portion of the advancing stocks in the total number of the stocks listed in a market index. The STIX indicator is used in technical analysis to reveal overbought and oversold level on the market (when applied to Exchanges) and market sectors (when applied to market indexes).

Description
The STIX (Short Term Index) was first time mentioned by Picton Davies in his "The Polymetric Report Stix Record Book" in 1985. It is based on comparison of the number of advancing and declining stocks.

Traditionally, STIX based on the Exponential Moving Average with 21-bar period setting applied to the advance decline issues ratio and it oscillates in the range from 0 to 100. On our index charts you may have custom EMA applied to the Advance/decline ratio.

Technical Analysis, Signals and Trading Systems
In technical analysis the STIX index is used to determine the overbought and oversold condition on Exchanges and on market sectors covered by indexes. According to the "Polymetric Report" when EMA with 21-bar period setting is used

• Most of the time the STIX indicator moves in the rage between 42 and 58;
• When the STIX indicator drops below 42 level it could be an indication of oversold market and it could be used as a signal to buy (except it is ranging Bear Market);
• The market is considered overbought when the STIX indicator raises above 56 (unless it is a new Bull Market);
• The market is considered strongly overbought and a "Sell" signal could be generated when the STIX indicator moves above 58 level (again, unless it is a new Bull Market).

In general the STIX readings could be put into the following overbought/oversold table (bear in mind that this is for the STIX with 21 bar period setting):

Overbought / Oversold Condition	STIX(21) Values
Extremely Overbought	greater than 58
Fairly Overbought	greater than 56
Fairly Oversold	less than 45
Extremely Oversold	less than 42

Comments by JustSignals 
At the close, Friday October 5,2018, the STIX was "44.4"


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Past performance is not indicative of future results.

chart of JNK:TLH

Courtesy of StockCharts.com

The purpose of this chart is to see if High Yield Bonds are stronger or weaker than 10-20 Year Treasury Bonds.

High Yield Bonds tend to keep pace with the stock market index.

10-20 Year Treasury Bonds tend to be the flight to quality during times of stock market volatility.

According to this chart, High Yield Bonds, currently, show stronger relative strength than the 10-20 Year Treasury Bonds.

Will this eventually lead to higher prices in the stock market?

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. 
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Picasso Cycle Update

The Short Term Picasso Cycle is still not yet in sync with the stock market where it can be useful.  So only the Long Term Picasso Cycle will be discussed at this time.

Long term
As previously discussed, the LT cycles suggested a high in late November/early December and this suggested high on the LT Cycles chart kept shifting forward until it stopped dead on Jan. 17,2018.  Shortly thereafter, the stock market slide 10%+/-.

-Looking out into 2018 the Picasso LT Cycle suggested a mid year low.  This Cycle low came in late June / early July.   The DJIA low at that time was marginally higher than the actual March low.   

The Cycle is shifting again and it is currently suggesting a high around now +/- and then a low in late November / early December.  After this suggested Cycle low it then suggests a high in March 2019.  This March 2019 high has been suggested for some time now.  So we need to give it time to develop.  If it changes as we get closer it will be noted here in a future post.
 
-This also coincides with the four year Presidential cycle (2017-2020) where there is usually a low in the second year, (2nd yr is 2018), and a high in the third year, (3rd yr is 2019).  It is widely known that the mid-term years are the best years for the stock market.  

***Keep in mind that nothing works 100% of the time!
The "key" is to be able to recognize when the second year low is in and when the third year high is in.   
This will be watched carefully and an update will be made when the charts and cycles suggest that a bottom has been confirmed. 

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. 
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.