charts: DIA & SPY

Courtesy Of ChaikinAnalytics.com

Courtesy Of ChaikinAnalytics.com

After a big rally off of the recent bottom, the CMF on both the DIA & SPY charts above, declined.  One would have expected the CMF to rise during a rally like the one we just had.  Maybe it will in the week/s ahead.  Or we may test the recent low.
Watch this carefully for any changes.

Review the post on Feb 21,2018 - Similarities in 1929 & 1987 & 2018
Link:
https://justsignals.blogspot.com/2018/02/charts-similarities-1929-1987-2018.html

Just saying, to keep an eye on it... Just in case...

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

charts: Is GLD ready to move?

In the charts below there is the monthly SPY / GLD ratio and a monthly GLD chart.
Sometimes the SPY / GLD ratio chart gives a heads up to a move in GLD.

Certain indicators are not needed for this chart so they were blacked out.

Monthly SPY / GLD Ratio

Monthly GLD

As you can see from the SPY / GLD Ratio chart, it does give a heads up when to be Risk On GLD and Risk Off GLD. 
According to the top chart:
Risk Off SPY = Risk On GLD
Risk On SPY = Risk Off GLD

This is confirmed by the second chart of GLD.

Many are currently suggesting a potential multi year Gold breakout.
The SPY / GLD Ratio chart can  help spot this if and when it happens.

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

charts: Similarities, 1929, 1987, 2018

Below are charts showing 3 different time periods.  1929, 1987 & 2018.
The first group shows all periods in the approximate place in time where we are today.
The second group shows what happened afterwards in 1929 & 1987.
The third group shows the same charts but instead of on a Daily chart, a 2 day chart was used.  Meaning that each price bar is a 2 day price bar.

Group One - up against resistance at the moving average (blue circle) after hitting ATH

Courtesy of Worden Bros.

Courtesy of Worden Bros.

Courtesy of Worden Bros.

Group Two - failed to get above and stay above the moving average

Courtesy of Worden Bros.

Courtesy of Worden Bros.

Group Three - (2 day price chart) MUST hold above the moving average (yellow highlight) so it does not follow the pattern of 1929 & 1987

Courtesy of Worden Bros.

Courtesy of Worden Bros.

Courtesy of Worden Bros.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. 
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

chart: SPY vs 5 day Adv Vol

The charts above are from 4/11/17 to 2/20/18.
When the 5 day Adv Vol spiked above 3100 (red line) the SPY started to go into a sideways chop.  A few days later when the 5 day Adv Vol bottomed the SPY started to rally.  It is possible, based on past patterns, that in a few days when the 5 Day Adv Vol bottoms, the SPY will rally again.

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

charts: Is the bottom in?

Two charts are worth showing and you come to your own conclusion.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. 
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Follow the Signs

If you have been following the posts in this blog for a while you will remember the Long Term Cycle dates of a low in August 2017 and a high in November/December 2017.   As you will see in the following chart, the August low came on time, but, the November/December high was early.
If you go back and review a long term wall chart you will see that most of the time bottoms are more noticeable and quicker to occur  than tops.  Tops seem to take time to rollover.  Big portfolio managers need time to unload large blocks of stock near tops a little at a time.  While at bottoms they come in sometimes with a vengeance and they want to be on the train before it leaves the station.
So, in order to work with the Long Term Cycle dates it is best to follow your charts and indicators.  This has been said here many many times.   When the cycle dates appear, that is a good time to watch the charts for changes in trend.  The following chart is a good example of this.
  

The blue arrow indicates where the shallow August low ended just around the cycle low date and the red arrow indicates where the rally ended after the cycle high date.   ADX is also a very good indicator to use.  If you want to find out more about the ADX indicator, goto StockCharts.com where they have a free school of definitions, explanations and formulas.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. 
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cam's Trifecta Buy Signal

Cam Hui, CFA‏ @HumbleStudent

 

Risk on, or risk off? $SPX $SPY Our Trifecta Bottom Spotting Model flashed a buy signal, but can #sentiment turn from complacent to washout in just 2 days? 

https://buff.ly/2E8RXtF 

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. 
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tax Cuts & the Stock Market

Two previous time periods had very similar price patterns in the stock market along with tax cuts.  The following charts show those two periods and the similar price patterns in the stock market.

So far 2017 was a solid up year just like 1963 and 1985.  With interest rates on the rise and the 10 Year Bond Yields pushing higher, we may get that long awaited 5-10% correction that we have not had for almost two years.
In addition the LT Picasso Cycles (Posted by JustSignals) have been suggesting a mid year low for 2018.
"So far" this all seems to fit.
Let's watch our indicators carefully for any changes in stock market trends.
If this scenario continues, then we may have a high in 2019, similar to the highs in Jan1966 and Aug1987, before the next big correction or bear market.


Keep following JustSignals using Twitter, @StockTwits or Follow By Email. Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage. 
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   
Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results.