Monday, September 28, 2015

chart: 4th Qtr data results

Courtesy of @WildcatTrader
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Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart:Aug & Sept data results

Courtesy of @WildcatTrader
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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Sy Harding's STS

Excerpts from "Beat the Market the Easy Way" by Sy Harding
"Sell in May and Go Away"
"Ned Davis Research Inc. published numerous studies showing the positive  historical results of being invested in the markets for the seven month period of October 1 to May 1, and being in cash the other five months."
"Thus an investor standing aside during the market's infavorable seasons not only matched the buy and hold performance of the S&P 500 and did so with only 50% of market risk, but also avoided the emotional stress  of seeing portfolios often plunge precipitously during unfavorable seasons."

  "IT IS NOT A FIXED 6-MONTHS IN, 6-MONTHS OUT!"

It is BEST to read this book.  The book is available at many libraries, either in paper or digital versions or it can be purchased easily online.

In summary, after the research made by Ned Davis Research Inc., Yale Hirsch of the Hirsch Organization and Alan Newman, editor of the Crosscurrents newsletter, Sy Harding's firm, Asset Management Research Corp. conducted more detailed research.  In their research they found that when the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), developed by Gerald Appel, was applied, the performance was much better.
"It works this way in our (Sy Harding's) seasonal strategy."
"If MACD is on a technical buy signal, indicating a rally is underway, when the October 16 earliest calendar date for seasonal entry arrives, we will enter at that time."
"However, if the MACD indicator is on a sell signal when the October 16 calendar date arrives, indicating a market decline is underway it would not make sense to enter before that decline ends, even though the average best calendar entry date has arrived.  In that event, our (Sy Harding's) Seasonal Timing Strategy simply waits to enter until MACD gives it's next buy signal, indicting that the decline has ended."
Use the same method in reverse when April 20 arrives to better pinpoint the end of the markets favorable period in the Spring.

Please take the time to read Sy Harding's book.  It is relatively short and easy to read and it has many more exciting findings by Sy Harding.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Thursday, September 24, 2015

chart: S&P500 2015 vs 1987

Courtesy of Time-Price-Research 
Courtesy of Time-Price-Research
Note that in both charts the projected bottom dates, if the current price pattern holds true to the historical price pattern, are highlighted in yellow.

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart: S&P500 2015 vs 2011

Courtesy of @Callum_Thomas
One reason for posting this updated chart dated September 23,2015, last posted on September 17,2015, is because a certain short term indicator gave a signal after the market closed today.  Data for this signal has been collected since January 2009.  Since then there were 3 other times this signal has happened during a similar price pattern.  Those dates were 6/25/10, 9/9/11 & 9/22/11.  The 6/25/10 signal was within the price pattern above, hence the reason for the chart.

The following charts show the price action after each the the above mentioned dates.
June 25, 2010 - Courtesy of Worden Bros.
September 9,2011 - Courtesy of Worden Bros.
September 22,2011 - Courtesy of Worden Bros.
In each of the three dates and only three examples, the price action did fall further before starting to rally.  So, an attempt to test the August low is "possible" based on the above past examples.  A break of that low is possible but not necessary.

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results

chart: Bund Spread & Bear Markets

Courtesy of McClellan Financial Publications
September 24, 2015

In an April 2014 Chart In Focus article, I noted how the yield spread between 10-year German government bonds and the equivalent U.S. government bonds was saying that the bull market could not yet be over.  The logic was that while the yield spread was still rising, the uptrend for stock prices was still underway.
German government bonds are known in the industry as “Bunds”, a contraction of the prefix “bundes” which is German for “federal”.  At the major stock market tops in 2000 and 2007, we saw the peak in the 10-year Bund-Treasury spread appear well in advance of the final price tops for stocks.  So because that spread was still rising in April 2014, my supposition then was that the uptrend had more months to live.
Now we see a different condition.  The Bund-Treasury spread peaked at 1.81 percentage points back in March 2015, and has since been contracting.  Meanwhile, the DJIA and SP500 kept on rising to incrementally higher price highs as the summer wore on, eventually breaking down with the August 2015 minicrash.
I spelled out the logic of why this yield spread indication works in that prior article.  I encourage you to go back and reread it.  But the summary is that when investors’ willingness to accept risk is starting to wane, that is a setup for a bear market for stock prices.
With a divergence now in place between the DJIA and the Bund-Treasury spread, we can have a reasonable expectation that a bear market for stock prices should ensue.  If it plays out like the last two, the bear market should last until the Bund-Treasury spread gets back down at least to parity, or preferably even lower. That could take a while; in the 2000 and 2007 examples, it took a couple of years.  The eurodollar COT leading indication already tells us to expect a downward trend until April 2016, so that gives us at least several months to see how the Bund-Treasury spread behaves.

Tom McClellan
Editor, The McClellan Market Report

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

chart: Bottom Finder (now Top finder)

The Bottom Finder was last posted on September 2,2015
Courtesy of StockCharts.com
Comments:
This indicator is best used as a Bottom Finder (as in the September 2,2015 post).  But, when staring at this chart the extreme highs in this indicator just hit you in the face when you see them coincide relatively well with tops in the market.  This indicator is still going up and has not turned down as of today's close.  When it does turn down a top or high "may" have been made.


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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results

Martin Armstrong dates

8.6 years
3,141 days
October 1,2015

8.6 months
261 days
September 30,2015

Is there any correlation between the longer and shorter term Armstrong cycle dates above?
The following dates are when both the longer and shorter term Armstrong cycle dates have been close to each other since the year 2000.  They are not always close to each other.  You can look at the dates individually and by using the midpoint between the two dates.  The current dates, above,  are the closest these two dates have been in the last 15 years.  Does this mean anything? 
*JustSignals has been posting evidence of a potential bottom trying to be formed.  Please take a few minutes and scroll back through the posts in this blog.  It is "possible" that the Armstrong cycle dates, although they have not occurred "exactly" near turns but close to them, are giving us a heads up or a warning to be watchful.

Armstrong Dates
8.6 Yrs      8.6 Mos  Near high/Near low
9//13/00    9/16/00   near high
11/16/02   11/14/02  near high
1/1/05       1/11/05    near high
2/4/07       3/10/07    near low
4/20/09     5/8/09     near low
6/13/11     7/5/11     near high
8/7/13       9/2/13     near low
10/1/15     9/30/15   ???

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Sunday, September 20, 2015

chart: SPY weekly bearish candle



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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results