Short Term Forecast

Review of the last Short Term Forecast Dates Made Oct 20th
- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)
1) Oct 22nd-24th +/-
2) Oct 26th-28th +/-
3) Nov 7th +/-

COMMENTS

On one of the forecast dates, Oct 17th +/-, the market started a rally from the Oct 15,16 bottom.  The next dates, Oct 22-24 +/-, could be called a running correction into the next set of dates, Oct 26-28+/-.  This occurred due to the strength and momentum of the rally.  Any dips were immediately bought into.    The next date is Nov 7th and any comments on that date will have to wait until the next update.  Congratulations to all of you that were able to catch part or all of this great rally.

Following cycles has been good to use as a guide or as a potential future road map, but, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast trend change date.  

 

NEW SHORT TERM FORECAST DATES

- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)
1) Nov 14th-16th +/-
2) Nov 29th +/-


 For those of you that follow Elliott Waves, the SPY Weekly chart made a minimum count of 5 waves up from the March 2009 bottom to the Sept 2014 top.  The intraday chart of the SPY relabeled the EW count down from the Sept 19th top.  It was a minimum of 5 waves down and now the EW count is three waves down to the Oct 15th bottom.  It suggests that we are in a 4th wave counter trend rally now.   If these counts are correct it now suggests that the 4th wave should stall soon and resume the down trend and make a new low.  But, as usual, always watch your indicators for hints of market direction as an EW count can change at anytime.
THIS SCENARIO DID NOT WORK OUT AND THE COUNT DOWN FROM SEPT 19TH WAS RELABELED AS AN A-B-C CORRECTION WHEN THE MARKET RALLIED TO NEW ALL TIME HIGHS.  THE 5 WAVES UP FROM THE MARCH 2009 LOW IS STILL THE CURRENT COUNT.
 
Since cycles do not distinguish between trading days and calendar days, the cycle dates may come out on Holidays or weekends.  So the dates suggested that do fall on such days are to be used as a window.   So, as always, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast cycle trends.  All forecast dates will still be noted with a "+/-" because the cycle dates are not always as perfect as we would like them to be.  Although they have been pretty accurate.   

Intermediate Term Forecast Trend Change Dates

Intermediate term cycles forecast at this time points up into mid to late November and then a down bias into December/January.  Today the AAII weekly sentiment was released.  A bearish reading of 15.1% was reported and it is the lowest reading since the July 14,2005 reading of 14.04%.  At that time the market had a shallow pullback and then rallied in a big way in the 4th quarter of 2005 and then into 2006 & 2007.

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 
Past performance is not indicative of future results