Forecast Trend Change Dates

Short Term Forecast Trend Change Dates
The last forecast made on Aug 27th stated:
- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)
1) (Probable Bottom) Sept 3rd +/-     An anniversary date
2) (Probable Top) September 15th +/-

Following cycles has been good to use as a guide or as a potential future road map, but, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast trend change date.  

COMMENTS

From the Aug 7th +/- forecast date the market rallied into the August 12-25 +/- forecast window and topped on Aug 26th at the end of the forecast window.  Since then the market has been in a trading range.

The next Short Term Forecast date was September 3rd +/-.  The market did have a low on Sept 2nd which was within the Sept 3rd +/- window.

The DJIA has been in a trading range since Aug 26th with a bias to the downside.  Cycles suggest that the next trend change date may attract some buying into Sept 15th +/-. 

 

UPDATED FORECAST

- Forecast Trend Change Dates are (+/-)
1) September 15th (Probable Top)
2) September 21st (Probable bottom)

Since cycles do not distinguish between trading days and calendar days, the cycle dates may come out on Holidays or weekends.  So the dates suggested that do fall on such days are to be used as a window.   So, as always, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast cycle trends.  All forecast dates will still be noted with a "+/-" because the cycle dates are not always as perfect as we would like them to be.  Although they have been pretty accurate.  

 

Intermediate Term Forecast Trend Change Dates The downward pressure of the Intermediate Term Cycles helped the DJIA drop 700 points into the Aug 7th short term forecast date.  From the Aug 7th bottom the market displayed a thrust of momentum that suggests that the market can go higher.  

Intermediate term cycles are currently pointing up into September/October 2014 +/-.  

A chart was posted on August 24,2014 showing the stock market corrections at the end of QE1 in 2010 and at the end of QE2 in 2011.  The third grey area goes out to October 2014 where the Fed announced the QE tapering should be ending.
Here is another chart showing the same thing...

Is it a coincidence that the QE tapering is scheduled to end in October 2014 and the Intermediate term cycles forecast a top in September/October 2014 +/- ?
 

The only fly in the ointment is shown on the chart posted on July 15th titled "2014 January Barometer".  The chart shows weakness going into September 2014.

If any changes are made to the Short Term or Intermediate Term Trend Change Dates, a new posting will be made. 

 

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 
Past performance is not indicative of future results