Short Term Trend Forecast

Short Term Forecast
The last forecast made on Aug 20th stated:

- Forecast cycle tops and bottoms are (+/-)

1) Bottom Aug 21 +/-
2) Top Aug 22-25 +/-
3) Bottom Sept 3rd +/-     An anniversary date

Following cycles has been good to use as a guide or as a potential future road map, but, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast cycle trends.  

COMMENTS

If you have been following these forecasts, you will know that the Aug 7th +/- forecast low was accurate and a nice rally occurred into the August 12-25 +/- forecast window.  

August 21st +/-  was another forecast low, but, due to the momentum of the rally we only had a mild down day on August 22nd.   The market then resumed the rally into the August 22-25 +/- window.  This is where the market did loose momentum as the cycles suggested.

The next Short Term Forecast date is September 3rd +/-.  Coming up is the Labor Day three day weekend and generally the stock market has been positive going into a Holiday weekend, but, lets see what happens this time with short term cycles pointing down into September 3rd +/-.

UPDATED FORECAST

- Forecast cycle tops and bottoms are (+/-)
1) Bottom Sept 3rd +/-     An anniversary date

2) Top September 15th +/-

Since cycles do not distinguish between trading days and calendar days, the cycle dates may come out on Holidays or weekends.  So the dates suggested that do fall on such days are to be used as a window.   So, as always, other tools must always be used for confirmation of any forecast cycle trends.  All forecast dates will still be noted with a "+/-" because the cycle dates are not always as perfect as we would like them to be.  Although they have been pretty accurate.  

 

Intermediate Term forecast 

The downward pressure of the Intermediate Term Cycles helped the DJIA drop 700 points into the Aug 7th short term forecast date.  From the Aug 7th bottom the market displayed a thrust of momentum that suggests that the market can go higher.  

Intermediate term cycles are currently pointing down into August 2014 - September 2014 +/- and there is another short term bottom forecast on Sept 3rd, although it is probable that the bottom was made on Aug 7th.  The next Intermediate Term Forecast is for a top October 2014 +/-.  A chart was posted on August 24,2014 showing the stock market corrections at the end of QE1 in 2010 and at the end of QE2 in 2011.  The third grey area goes out to October 2014 where the Fed announced the QE tapering should be ending.
Here is another chart showing the same thing...

Is it a coincidence that the QE tapering is scheduled to end in October 2014 and the Intermediate term cycles forecast a top in October 2014 +/- ?

The only fly in the ointment is shown on the chart posted on July 15th titled "2014 January Barometer".  The chart shows weakness going into September 2014.

If any changes are made to the Short Term or Intermediate Term Forecasts, a new posting will be made. 

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This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 
Past performance is not indicative of future results