Wednesday, June 25, 2014

S&P 500 and the Death Cross

Courtesy of Yardeni.com


The red trend lines and the question mark were added to this chart.
Note the years where the red trend lines were broken and then bottomed.
Have to comment on the bottom of the first blue line in 1974 even though there was not enough data here to show where the red trend line would have been broken.  An important low.
Then 1981-82, 1987, 1999-2000, 2007.
Now it is staring us in the face again.   Not a question of "if it will happen", but, "when it will happen".
Thank you to Ed Yardeni for this wonderful chart!

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Short Term CIT forecast Update

Wednesday June  25,2014 @ 9:20am

Change in Trend (CIT)  

Short Term CIT forecast Update
The last forecast made on June 13th stated, "So far there is no change in the forecasted cycle lows today, June 13th & July 6th with a bounce in between.  This bounce may find itself ending around June 23rd +/-"

Since June 13th the market bottomed that morning and then rallied to June 23rd +/- as the cycles suggested.  It then proceeded to sell off, and the futures are indicating a lower open this morning.
 
Following cycles has been good to use as a guide or potential future road map, but, other tools must always be used to confirm any forecasted cycle trends.  
 
UPDATE 
 So far there is no change in the next forecasted cycle low July 6th +/-
But, cycles indicate that there may be some kind of counter trend action between June 26th and July 4th.
Since cycles can not distinguish between trading days and calendar days, the cycle dates may come out on Holidays or weekends.  So the dates suggested that do fall on such days are to be used as a window.  All other days are still noted with a "+/-" because the cycle dates are not always as perfect as we all would like them to be.  Although they have been pretty accurate.  
  UPDATE in the Intermediate Term forecast 
Intermediate term cycles are currently pointing down into July 2014 - August 2014 +/- and may even extend further out in the 3rd and possibly the 4th quarter 2014.
So this may prevent some rallies from materializing, but if they do occur, some investors may take advantage of these rallies and sell into them.
We continue to witness this type of action.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tuesday, June 17, 2014

S&P500 daily chart

 
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

XAU daily chart


This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Friday, June 13, 2014

Short Term CIT forecast Update

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Friday June 13,2014, 11am

Change in Trend (CIT)  

Short Term CIT forecast Update
The last forecast made on May 28th stated, "After May 28th, the next forecasted cycle lows are June 13th & July 6th with a bounce in between."
Since May 28th the market continued its rally to a top on June 9th.  It then proceeded to sell off, so far, to a bottom made this morning, Friday June 13th, at around 10:00am, just as forecasted on May 21st.
Following cycles has been good to use as a guide or potential future road map, but, other tools must always be used to confirm any forecasted cycle trends.  
UPDATE 
 So far there is no change in the forecasted cycle lows today, June 13th & July 6th with a bounce in between.  This bounce may find itself ending around June 23rd +/-

There is no change in the Intermediate Term forecast 
Intermediate term cycles are currently pointing down into July 2014 +/-.
So this may prevent some rallies from materializing, but if they do occur, some investors may take advantage of these rallies and sell into them.
We continue to witness this type of action.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Thursday, June 5, 2014

Barron's Confidence Index vs S&P500

Courtesy of Barron's and eSignal



This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.