Short Term CIT Forecast Update

Change in Trend (CIT)  

Short Term CIT forecast Update

The last forecast made on May 21st stated, "Upward bias into the end of the month, in cycle terms, works out to be May 28th +/-"

Looking back from today, May 28th, that is exactly what happened.  Today even though the S&P500 closed down, it made an intraday high before selling off.  

UPDATE - 

After May 28th, the next forecasted cycle lows are June 13th & July 6th with a bounce in between. 

So far the "Short Term CIT Forecast Update's" have been very accurate.   Let's see if they continue to perform well. 

There is no change in the Intermediate Term forecast 

Intermediate term cycles are currently pointing down into July 2014 +/-.

So this may prevent some rallies from materializing, but if they do occur, some investors may take advantage of these rallies and sell into them.

We continue to witness this type of action.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NYSE Margin Debt

One observation is that there seems to be a correlation between margin debt (investor positive and negative credit balances) and the S&P500

Second observation is that high margin debt tops out before the S&P500 and the converse was observed as well

Charts last posted here on March 9,2014 and updated today

Charts courtesy of dshort.com

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Short Term Update

Change in Trend (CIT)  

Short Term CIT forecast Update
The last forecast made stated "Today's sell off (May14th) was not at or lower than the May 7th and May 9th lows so far this month.  At this point the cycles should bottom this week and then have an upward bias into the end of May."

UPDATE - Well the next day, May15th, we took out the May 7th low and the mid month low forecasted worked out.  Now, the upward bias into the end of the month, in cycle terms, works out to be May 28th +/-

After May 28th, the next forecasted lows are June 13th & July 6th with a bounce in between. 

There is no change in the Intermediate Term forecast 
Intermediate term cycles are currently pointing down into July 2014 +/-.
So this may prevent some rallies from materializing, but if they do occur, some investors may take advantage of these rallies and sell into them.
We continue to witness this type of action.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Rober W. Colby WARNING!

Courtesy of Robert W. Colby Asset Management, Inc.

WARNING !

Now is the time to Reduce Risk and Focus on Capital Preservation
Our Safety First Portfolio Is Outperforming Stocks
Bonds are Bullish, Stocks are Vulnerable
The data clearly show that the move to Safety has already begun. The table below shows that over the latest 4 1/2 months, our Safety First Portfolio has outperformed the S&P 500 significantly.

Portfolio/Index 2014  YTD (through 1:00PM EDT today) Strategy   Data Sheet
Safety First Portfolio                +12.39                   Absolute Return  Safety First                               S&P 500 Index Total Return +1.72%

US Bonds Confirm Bullish Trend    

Long-term, Medium-term, and Inflation Protected U.S. Treasury Bonds rose to their highest level in 10 months today, and are all systematically bullish based on our analysis.

Introducing our Dynamic Allocation Shift Capability  

We now have the ability to shift your money from our Stock Portfolios to our Safety First Portfolio when the stock market turns down (bearish.)  That way, we can focus on capital preservation.  Since the safest investments often rise when risky stocks fall in price, reflecting the shifts of giant, multi-billion dollar institutional portfolios, the safest investments actually can make money for you even when stocks go down.

We can then shift your money back to stocks when the market improves and moves upward (bullish)... Automatically.... based on Robert W. Colby's Systematic Trend Identification Methods.

Be prepared for unforeseen Black Swan financial "accidents"

Posted here on April 16,2014 "JNK:TLH Ratio - Where are we now" ?

Below is an update of that chart...

The 3 year chart

The 1 year chart

Note in the 3 year chart that the red line crossed over the blue line in June 2011.
The same thing happened again in April2014, look at the 1 year chart above.
Although it also happened in May 2012, it was after the 2011 sell off and indicators were over sold and bullish at that time.

Watch your indicators carefully and note that the Intermediate Term Cycles posted on this blog are still pointed down in to July 2014. 

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Short Term CIT Forecast Update

Change in Trend (CIT)  

Short Term CIT forecast Update
The last forecast made stated "Currently the next CIT appears to be a window of April 26th to May 1st and possibly a top with a probable sell off into mid May."

Today's sell off was not at or lower than the May 7th and May 9th lows so far this month.

At this point the cycles should bottom this week and then have an upward bias into the end of May.

There is no change in the Intermediate Term forecast 
Intermediate term cycles are currently pointing down into July 2014 +/-.
So this may prevent some rallies from materializing, but if they do occur, some investors may take advantage of these rallies and sell into them. 
We continue to witness this type of action.

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

S&P500 Negative Momentum

Courtesy of StockCharts.com, Yardeni.com, EquityClock.com

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hanging Man Candlestick May Signal Caution

 

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Tall Buildings Lead to Market Falls?

Building starts this year and is estimated to be completed in 2020

To review this theory please take a look at a previous post made on April 13,2011
Link     http://bit.ly/i0UNBX

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results.