Bullish bias into April 1-2, then a
bearish bias into April 10th
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work
and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Monday, March 31, 2014
Thursday, March 27, 2014
Is the Stock Market Getting Ready to Turn Soon?
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| Posted May 20,2011 |
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| As of March 25,2014 |
JNK - SPDR High Yield Bond ETF
TLT - Barclays 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
The last time these charts were presented as a post in this blog was on, May20,2011, April 21,2011 & April 14,2011...
To better understand this post, please read the past posts and to see what happened in hindsight ...
As of today, there is a negative divergence in these charts...
In other words the JNK:TLT chart is not confirming the high in the SPX with a corresponding high in the JNK:TLT chart...
As seen at the top of this blog, maybe it is best said as follows... "Confidence is contagious. So is lack of confidence" -Vince Lombardi
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Monday, March 24, 2014
A Cycle Update
A cycle top on January 27,2014 may be a warning sign.
Two previous and very similar cycle tops were warning signs before significant stock market sell offs.
One came 51 days before the market slide began and the other one came 62 days before another market slide began.
If these two previous events are used as a guide, then adding 51 days and 62 days respectively to the January 27th cycle top results in a window of March 19 to March 30,2014.
This is a potential window to watch for additional signs of a stock market top and a potential sell off to begin, but, there is no guarantee that this window cannot be extended into April. Or that a sell off is going to happen. But if history is going to repeat itself, one should be cautious and act accordingly.
Mark Twain said "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme"
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Two previous and very similar cycle tops were warning signs before significant stock market sell offs.
One came 51 days before the market slide began and the other one came 62 days before another market slide began.
If these two previous events are used as a guide, then adding 51 days and 62 days respectively to the January 27th cycle top results in a window of March 19 to March 30,2014.
This is a potential window to watch for additional signs of a stock market top and a potential sell off to begin, but, there is no guarantee that this window cannot be extended into April. Or that a sell off is going to happen. But if history is going to repeat itself, one should be cautious and act accordingly.
Mark Twain said "History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme"
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Mid-Day Update for Monday March 24,2014
The previous short term cycles, discussed on Thursday March 20,2014, topped on Friday's open. The downside pressure did not follow through to Monday morning at the open, but, it did shortly thereafter and at this writing the averages are: DJIA -65 & SP500 -15.
Watching it for a short term bottom and a positive theme for the rest of the week.
Note that it is the end of the quarter and therefore window dressing is common here.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Watching it for a short term bottom and a positive theme for the rest of the week.
Note that it is the end of the quarter and therefore window dressing is common here.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Friday, March 21, 2014
Warren Buffett's "Total Market Cap to GDP Ratio"
Money News published an article On March 20,2014 titled
"Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014
See this article using the following link
http://nws.mx/1oIemR1
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
"Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014
See this article using the following link
http://nws.mx/1oIemR1
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Today's Update
The cycle top suggested for Thursday carried over to this mornings open. On the 15 min chart there was a Japanese shooting star candle in the first 15 min of trading. A bearish pattern. By the afternoon the market retreated at least 50% and now it is only up 6 points. Triple witching days are volatile.
But yesterdays cycle suggestion also indicated a possible short term bottom on Monday. So far today's action helps that scenario. Weak Fridays sometimes bring on weak Mondays.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
But yesterdays cycle suggestion also indicated a possible short term bottom on Monday. So far today's action helps that scenario. Weak Fridays sometimes bring on weak Mondays.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Thursday, March 20, 2014
Short Term Cycles
The short term cycle top is Thursday March 20th and the short term cycle bottom is Monday March 24th.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
one SPY Daily Oscillator and more
Lower tops and lower bottoms, so far.
But the stock market keeps grinding higher.
Watch for signs of a possible top developing.
How?
For beginners, you can start at StockCharts.com - Chart School
Then to learn how to apply that knowledge one good book to read is "Successful Stock Signals for Traders and Portfolio Managers" by Tom Lloyd Sr.
For seasoned traders and investors, please feel free to leave a comment and share some of your ideas!
On Sunday March 2,2014, see the post, "Watch March 14-17", this post nailed the pullback into Friday March 14,2014 two weeks before it happened using cycles.
Current State of the Market - possible backing and filling between now and the end of the month, then a little push up into mid April, then a potential sell off into July 2014, as suggested in several prior posts on this blog.
Important posts to review on this blog can be found on these dates:
December 17,2013
January 7,2014
February 26,2014
The information in these posts are very important and further research should be done by you to get a better understanding.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Wednesday, March 19, 2014
Todays End of Day Chart of the DJIA
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| Courtesy of Worden Bros |
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Sunday, March 9, 2014
Article by Sy Harding worth reading
Safe Havens Are Trouncing Stocks So Far in 2014
http://read.bi/MZU7ju
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
S&P500 vs Margin Debt & GDP
Last week there were many posts online showing Margin Debt in relationship to the S&P500 and the GDP.
Here are a few of these charts.
One observation is that there seems to be a correlation between margin debt (investor positive and negative credit balances) and the S&P500
Second observation is that high margin debt tops out before the S&P500 and the converse was observed as well
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Here are a few of these charts.
Second observation is that high margin debt tops out before the S&P500 and the converse was observed as well
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Sunday, March 2, 2014
Investors Intelligence stock market sentiment
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| Courtesy of Investors Intelligence |
Stock market sentiment extremes should not be used as trading signals per se, but, should be used as guidance.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
SPY SCTR update
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| Courtesy of StockCharts.com |
This was last updated on Sept 24,2013.
Further divergences are noted.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
S&P500 chart as of Friday Feb 28,2014
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| Chart Courtesy of Worden Bros. |
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Watch March 14-17 !
- An excerpt from the March 2014 Forecast by Richard Nolle
"Having already spent much time developing and illustrating by historical example what Mars Max means – see my article on the subject, or check the full version of my 2014 World Forecast Highlights – suffice it to say that the peak Mars Max that we’re in this month and next is a time when "fires, crashes, clashes and explosions" will dominate the headlines. Be ready, be cautious, be safe – all through March (and into April), but most especially around the 1st, the 16th-19th, and the 31st."
While I read the above mentioned March 2014 Forecast this morning, I recalled that the March 16-19 dates sounded familiar. It just so happens that these dates coincide with the March 2014 stock market astro forecast I prepared which calls for a mid month pullback into March 14-16. Since March 16th falls on a Sunday, many times a forecast date that falls out on a weekend may carry over to the trading days on Friday and or Monday.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
"Having already spent much time developing and illustrating by historical example what Mars Max means – see my article on the subject, or check the full version of my 2014 World Forecast Highlights – suffice it to say that the peak Mars Max that we’re in this month and next is a time when "fires, crashes, clashes and explosions" will dominate the headlines. Be ready, be cautious, be safe – all through March (and into April), but most especially around the 1st, the 16th-19th, and the 31st."
While I read the above mentioned March 2014 Forecast this morning, I recalled that the March 16-19 dates sounded familiar. It just so happens that these dates coincide with the March 2014 stock market astro forecast I prepared which calls for a mid month pullback into March 14-16. Since March 16th falls on a Sunday, many times a forecast date that falls out on a weekend may carry over to the trading days on Friday and or Monday.
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only. Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.
Past performance is not indicative of future results.
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