Monday, August 31, 2015

chart:Tom DeMark MOB 4 China

Courtesy of Bloomberg
Read the full article at this link
http://bloom.bg/1NHHCFy

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Friday, August 21, 2015

Fear Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN at 9:55AM
Courtesy of CNN at 9:55AM



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chart: DJIA stocks above 10DMA

Courtesy of IndexIndicators.com
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Thursday, August 20, 2015

charts: Fear Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN at 11:20AM on Aug 20,2016
Courtesy of CNN at 11:20AM on Aug 20,2016

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Wednesday, August 19, 2015

Chaikin charts: DIA IWM SPY QQQ


Last time these charts were posted was on August 6,2016

Review these past posts to get a better sense of the bigger picture
Post July 29,2016 - September is the weakest month of the year
Post August 12,2016 - Intermediate Term Cycles
Post August 17,2016 - 4 Year Cycle

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics
DIA has been making lower lows and lower highs since May 19th so it is in a downtrend.
In the chart the CMF gained a little into the green as the OBOS indicator moved up in the OB area.  But the RS stayed firmly in the orange area.  What we want to see is a rising CMF in the green with a rising RS in the green for a healthy chart.  It is also best when accompanied by the price above the tan MA too, but, price is below it.

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics
IWM has been making lower lows and lower highs since June 24th so it is in a down trend.
In the chart the CMF is barely moved into the green as the OBOS indicator moved into the OB area. This displays continued weakness.  Also note that the RS is still in the orange area and it has not been able to move up significantly. 

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics
In the chart the CMF broke up and into the green since July 27th.   The CMF has stayed in the green as the OBOS indicator dropped in to the OS area and then bounced back up to the OB area which is positive.  The RS though is still firmly in the orange area and the price is below the tan MA.  This is an indication of a weak chart.

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics
QQQ is the only chart in the four charts above that has been making higher lows and higher highs and the only chart that made a high in the Aug 4 +/- forecast window. 
In the chart, just like the SPY, the CMF broke above the red since July 27th and so far has stayed in the green as the OBOS indicator dropped in to the OS area.  What is not good is that the CMF and RS is declining as the price and OBOS indicator is rising.  This is a possible negative divergence.

Additional Notes
1-The stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25 and this happened 4 times this year between June & August
2-The data supports that September +/- is the worst period of the year which occurs just ahead of a historically positive November-December and or October, November, December, January period
3-Both the average 3rd years & 7th years of the Presidential cycle show several months of a mid year topping phase just before some market corrections in the September/October period and then a rally into the year end 
4-Fear Greed Index is in the extreme fear area.  This is a contrarian point of view.
5-The Intermediate Term Cycles are suggesting nothing different and still suggest a rally into November and or January.

The short term cycles from Aug 19-20 do suggest some chop & slop from Aug 21 -27 then grinding bias to the upside into Sept 13th and then some bias to the downside into Sept 26th.  From that point the cycles suggest bias to the upside into November and or January +/-.   More on this early in Sept2016.


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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday, August 18, 2015

Short Term Update

The following was posted on August 13,2015
Todays comments are in BOLD

Short term details:(every date is +/-)
July 17-20 high   high was made on July 20th
July 23-29 low    On time so far
Aug 4 high    On Aug 3rd for DJUA and on Aug 5th for IWM, QQQ, DJTA, DJIA, SPY
Aug 8 low     Made on Aug 7-8
Aug 13 high   At the close a high was made intraday
Aug 19-20  low  with some jiggle around Aug 15-17 The jiggle came in early on Aug 14-17
Aug 21     high
Aug 21-27  cycles suggest some chop & slop
Sept 1   high

More as we approach Sept 1st

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Gold & Stan Druckenmiller

Hedge fund billionaire Stan Druckenmiller has made a huge bet on gold
Click on the link below to read the article
Or copy and paste in your browser
 

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Monday, August 17, 2015

chart: 4 year cycle

Courtesy of Jeffrey Young's Public Charts

The following is Courtesy of MarketInOut.com
4 Year Cycle (Kitchin Wave). In 1923, Joseph Kitchin found that a 40 month cycle existed in a variety of financial items in both Great Britain and the United States between 1890 and 1922. The four-year cycle was later found to have an extremely strong presence in the stock market between 1868 and 1945.
Although it is called a "four-year cycle," the cycle length has been found to vary between 40 and 53 months.

The Kitchin 4 year cycle confirms exactly what Jeffrey Young displays in his chart above.
Also JustSignals intermediate term cycles has been suggesting a correction low sometime in the 2Q/3Q of 2016.

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Thursday, August 13, 2015

Short Term Update


The following was posted on July 24,2015
Todays comments are in BOLD

June 30 to July 8 & may be to July 13 & possible to July 20th - cycles suggest a potential consolidation period with a possible bias to the upside.   
This was true for QQQ, DJUA, SPY, DJTA, but not for IWM, DJIA
Relative strength of each must be monitored

Short term details:(every date is +/-)
July 17-20 high   high was made on July 20th
July 23-29 low    On time so far
Aug 4 high    On Aug 3rd for DJUA and on Aug 5th for IWM, QQQ, DJTA, DJIA, SPY
Aug 8 low     Made on Aug 7-8
Aug 13 high   At the close a high was made intraday
Aug 19-20  low  with some jiggle around Aug 15-17

More as we approach Aug 19th

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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Intermediate Term Cycles Forecast

Updated Intermediate Term Comments:   (supported by info and data below)
1-The stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25 and this happened 4 times this year between June & August
2-The data below supports that September +/- is the worst period of the year which occurs just ahead of a historically positive November-December and or October, November, December, January period
3-Both the average 3rd years & 7th years of the Presidential cycle show several months of a mid year topping phase just before some market corrections in the September/October period and then a rally into the year end 
4-Fear Greed Index is at 6 today.  This is a contrarian point of view.
5-The Intermediate Term Cycles are suggesting nothing different and still suggest a rally into November and or January.
Note that cycles do NOT suggest that future suggested highs can be or will be higher or lower than past highs or that future suggested lows can be or will be lower or higher than past lows.


The following excerpts was posted on August 6,2015

JustSignals posts for the intermediate cycles have been suggesting:
The intermediate forecast is for a top either on May 21+/- and or June 18-19+/- (both dates were accurate) with a potential correction into July 29+/- (also accurate).  The cycles then forecast a rally into November and or January.  Here is where it gets a little trickly.  At this point the short term cycles suggest some interruption in the Intermediate Term forecast.  The periods of Aug 13-19 +/- and Sept 13-26 +/- are areas that suggest a downward bias in the market.   If any other periods are noticed they will be posted ahead of time.

*Also note that September +/- is the weakest month of the year for the stock market and we are entering a period of weakness suggested by the Average 3rd Years of the Presidential Cycle and the Average 7th Years of the Presidential Cycle.

So, similar action subsequent to June 9,2011 is a good possibility at this point based on the suggestions of the intermediate cycles , short term cycles, September weakness, the Average 3rd Years of the Presidential Cycle and the Average 7th Years of the Presidential Cycle and Aubie Baltin's interpretation of the AAII Bullish %.


Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD. and writer of the market newsletter, UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE,  once wrote that the stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25.
Recent dates when the AAII Bullish % was less than 25.00
June 9,2011    24.40  - Sell off into Aug 2011 before continuing higher
May 16,2012  23.60  - Market continued higher
July 18,2012   22.20  - Market continued higher
April 10,2013 19.30  - Market continued higher
June 10,2015  20.00  - ???
July 1,2015     22.60
July 29,2015   21.10
Aug 5,2015     24.30


The following excerpts was posted on July 29,2015
Courtesy of thepatternsite.com
Courtesy of thepatternsite.com

Data from moneychimp.com
            Yrs  Yrs  Avg
Month  Up  Dn   Gain/Loss
Jan        39   26   +0.94%
Feb       37   28    -0.13%
Mar       42   23   +1.10%
Apr       44   21   +1.36%
May      37   28   +0.11%
Jun       33   32    -0.07%
Jul        35   30   +0.83%
Aug     37   28    -0.18%
Sep     29   36     -0.65%
Oct     40   25     +0.68%
Nov    43   22     +1.37%
Dec    49   16     +1.59%
The data above supports that September is the worst month of the year and that the best six months of the year is November to April.


The following excerpts was posted on June 19,2015

  Today on Twitter there was a chart by SeeItMarket.com on the 7th year of the Presidential cycle (this occurs when a President serves two terms).  In addition, their link takes you to an article which included another chart on the 3rd year of the Presidential cycle.  Both the 7th year and the 3rd year of the Presidential cycles fall in this year, 2015.
Here are those charts.



courtesy of SeeItMarket.com
Both of these charts show a rough several months just ahead before a year end rally.  Of course, both of these charts are the "averages" of several 3rd and 7th years.

Intermediate Term Cycles Forecast:
The following is also similar to the 7 year Presidential chart above
June, July, August +/-  - high  
IWM high June 24th
QQQ high July 20th
DJIA high May 19th
September, October +/-  - low
IWM low today so far
QQQ low July 7th so far
DJIA low today so far 


The following excerpts was posted on August 11,,2015

Fear Greed Index = 6 ---> Last updated Aug 12,2015 at 11:54am

Courtesy of CNN Tuesday 8/11/15 at 3:31pm
Courtesy of CNN
 The following excerpts was posted on June 9,2015

The intermediate forecast is for a top either on May 21+/- and or June 18-19+/- with a potential correction into July 29+/-.  The cycles then forecast a rally into November and or January.
Keep checking for further updates.
The dates forecast back on June 9,2015 turned out to be pretty accurate.  The only date that did not hold was the low of July 29th.   The low extended, so far, into August 2015.



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Past performance is not indicative of future results

Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Fear Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN Tuesday 8/11/15 at 3:31pm
Courtesy of CNN

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Friday, August 7, 2015

Fear Greed Index

Courtesy of CNN
Courtesy of CNN



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Thursday, August 6, 2015

AAII Bullish %

Posted on Thursday, June 11, 2015 today's comments in Blue

AAII Bullish %

Aubie Baltin CFA, CTA, CFP, PhD. and writer of the market newsletter, UNCOMMON COMMON SENSE,  once wrote that the stock market tends to rally for approx 3-6 months when the AAII bullish reading is under 25.

Recent dates when the AAII Bullish % was less than 25.00
June 9,2011    24.40  - Sell off into Aug 2011 before continuing higher
May 16,2012  23.60  - Market continued higher
July 18,2012   22.20  - Market continued higher
April 10,2013 19.30  - Market continued higher
June 10,2015  20.00  - ???
July 1,2015     22.60
July 29,2015   21.10

Aug 5,2015     24.30

*The continuation of additional Bullish %'s below 25.00% so close together suggests that the market may rally 3-6 months out.  If Aubie Baltin is correct again, then it certainly agrees with the suggestions of the Intermediate term cycles. 


JustSignals posts for the intermediate cycles have been suggesting:
The intermediate forecast is for a top either on May 21+/- and or June 18-19+/- (both dates were accurate) with a potential correction into July 29+/- (also accurate).  The cycles then forecast a rally into November and or January.  Here is where it gets a little trickly.  At this point the short term cycles suggest some interruption in the Intermediate Term forecast.  The periods of Aug 13-19 +/- and Sept 13-26 +/- are areas that suggest a downward bias in the market.   If any other periods are noticed they will be posted ahead of time.

*Also note that September +/- is the weakest month of the year for the stock market and we are entering a period of weakness suggested by the Average 3rd Years of the Presidential Cycle and the Average 7th Years of the Presidential Cycle.

So, similar action subsequent to June 9,2011 is a good possibility at this point based on the suggestions of the intermediate cycles , short term cycles, September weakness, the Average 3rd Years of the Presidential Cycle and the Average 7th Years of the Presidential Cycle and Aubie Baltin's interpretation of the AAII Bullish %.

Keep following JustSignals using Twitter or Follow By Email.
Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage

This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions. 
Past performance is not indicative of future results

Chaikin charts: DIA IWM SPY QQQ

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics
Short term forecasts: (every date is +/-)
July 17-20 high   high was made on July 20th
July 23-29 low    low was made on July 27th 
Aug 4 high         high was made on July 31st, although a failed attempt on Aug 5th
Aug 8 low          in that window now
Aug 13 high       next suggested high

DIA has been making lower lows and lower highs since May 19th so technically it is in a down trend.
In the chart the CMF is barely in the red as the OBOS indicator fell in an OS area.  This may allow for a rise into the next forecast high of Aug 13th.  Another post will be made as we get in that time frame.     

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics
Short term forecasts: (every date is +/-)
July 17-20 high   high was made on July 16th
July 23-29 low    low was made on July 28th 
Aug 4 high         high was made on July 31st, although a failed attempt on Aug 5th
Aug 8 low          in that window now
Aug 13 high       next suggested high

IWM has been making lower lows and lower highs since June 24th so technically it is in a down trend.
In the chart the CMF is barely in the red.  This may allow for a rise into the next forecast high of Aug 13th.  Another post will be made as we get in that time frame.    

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics
Short term forecasts: (every date is +/-)
July 17-20 high   high was made on July 20th
July 23-29 low    low was made on July 27th 
Aug 4 high         high was made on July 31st, although a failed attempt on Aug 5th
Aug 8 low          in that window now
Aug 13 high       next suggested high

SPY has been making a triangle pattern if you draw a trend line down from the July 20th high and another trend line up from the July 7th low. 
In the chart the CMF broke above the red since July 27th and so far has stayed in the green as the OBOS indicator dropped in to the OS area. With rising price bottoms and a CMF in the green, this may allow for a rise into the next forecast high of Aug 13th.  Another post will be made as we get in that time frame.    

Courtesy of Chaikin Analytics
Short term forecasts: (every date is +/-)
July 17-20 high   high was made on July 20th
July 23-29 low    low was made on July 27th 
Aug 4 high         high was made on Aug 5th
Aug 8 low          in that window now
Aug 13 high       next suggested high

QQQ is the only chart in the four charts above that has been making higher lows and higher highs and the only chart that made a high in the Aug 4 +/- forecast window. 
In the chart, just like the SPY, the CMF broke above the red since July 27th and so far has stayed in the green as the OBOS indicator dropped in to the OS area. With rising price bottoms and a CMF in the green, this may allow for a rise into the next forecast high of Aug 13th.  Another post will be made as we get in that time frame.


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Just submit your email address in the box on the Blog homepage
This has been posted for Educational Purposes Only.   Do your own work and consult with Professionals before making any investment decisions.  
Past performance is not indicative of future results